'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
STAYIN' HOME - Only two companies saw their Results &amp; Revision Scores improve quarter-on-quarter amongst the thirteen that reported - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dcm-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13042:1" rel="noopener">DCM (3050 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keiyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14415:1" rel="noopener">Keiyo (8168 JP),</a> both Retail Home Centers. Revenues rose by 9% and 10% and operating margins increases by 0.9 and 4.0 points, respectively. All other retail formats other than grocery stores have suffered as expected, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimamura-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15213:1" rel="noopener">Shimamura (8227 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16460:1" rel="noopener">Asahi (3333 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-front-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8947:1" rel="noopener">J Front Retailing (3086 JP)</a> being Monday's examples.
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DAILY STATS
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13 Quarterly Results
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<ul>
<li>
Results Score: 2 Positive / 11 Negative</li>
<li>
Average Results Score Change:-6.2</li>
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Average % Change in Revenue: -13.5% Quarter YoY / -1.0% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
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Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.9ppt</li>
</ul>
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 6 Annual 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
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<ul>
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 3 Positive / 3 Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 1 Positive / 2 Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.4</li>
</ul>
</div>



Source • Japan Analytics
STAYIN' HOME - Only two companies saw their Results &amp; Revision Scores improve quarter-on-quarter amongst the thirteen that reported - DCM (3050 JP) and Keiyo (8168 JP), both Retail Home Centers. Revenues rose by 9% and 10% and operating margins increases by 0.9 and 4.0 points, respectively. All other retail formats other than grocery stores have suffered as expected, with Shimamura (8227 JP), Asahi (3333 JP), and J Front Retailing (3086 JP) being Monday's examples.


DAILY STATS


13 Quarterly Results




Results Score: 2 Positive / 11 Negative

Average Results Score Change:-6.2

Average % Change in Revenue: -13.5% Quarter YoY / -1.0% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.9ppt




 6 Annual 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions



Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 3 Positive / 3 Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 1 Positive / 2 Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.4



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th June -Stayin' Home

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Equity Bottom-Up

2QFY20 was a challenging quarter for Japan’s largest apparel retailer Uniqlo. The company warned investors that the worst is yet to come as they revised FY20 revenue guidance from ¥2,340bn to ¥2,090bn and OP guidance from ¥245bn to ¥145bn. Also, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> revised its DPS guidance. Initially, the company had planned to increase its interim dividend by ¥10 to ¥250 per share, in the 2QFY20 earnings release, the company said that they will maintain the dividend at the previous year’s level.

2QFY20 was a challenging quarter for Japan’s largest apparel retailer Uniqlo. The company warned investors that the worst is yet to come as they revised FY20 revenue guidance from ¥2,340bn to ¥2,090bn and OP guidance from ¥245bn to ¥145bn. Also, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) revised its DPS guidance. Initially, the company had planned to increase its interim dividend by ¥10 to ¥250 per share, in the 2QFY20 earnings release, the company said that they will maintain the dividend at the previous year’s level.

Fast Retailing 2QFY20 Results: Revised Revenue Guidance Is More a Bull Scenario

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/647/original/2020-03-31_04-53-29.png?1585598052" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125647"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>MONDAY 30th MARCH - As the Government of Japan and the Governor of Tokyo toy with ending its Swedish-style limited containment protocol, eleven quarterly results and twenty-one companies released initial forecasts or revised previous forecasts. The already-loss-making <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joyfull-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17505:1" rel="noopener">Joyfull (9942 JP)</a>restaurant chain withdrew its full-year forecasts and is undecided on any dividend payment for the year. In terms of our scoring system, the ratio of positive to negative 'scores' was 6:12, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electric-power-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15457:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mochida-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3655:1" rel="noopener">Mochida Pharmaceutical (4534 JP)</a>being the largest negative-scoring companies by market cap.  A renewed bout of Yen strength is not helpful, although the collapse in oil prices helped the Utilities Sector; however, TEPCO's downgrade will likely curb that enthusiasm today. Turnover was light as the Value Trade Ratio dropped to 59 bps. As a result, the Bank of Japan's fourth ¥200b intervention represented 6.3% of TOPIX Value Traded, a new record.

Source • Japan AnalyticsMONDAY 30th MARCH - As the Government of Japan and the Governor of Tokyo toy with ending its Swedish-style limited containment protocol, eleven quarterly results and twenty-one companies released initial forecasts or revised previous forecasts. The already-loss-making Joyfull (9942 JP)restaurant chain withdrew its full-year forecasts and is undecided on any dividend payment for the year. In terms of our scoring system, the ratio of positive to negative 'scores' was 6:12, with Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP) and Mochida Pharmaceutical (4534 JP)being the largest negative-scoring companies by market cap.  A renewed bout of Yen strength is not helpful, although the collapse in oil prices helped the Utilities Sector; however, TEPCO's downgrade will likely curb that enthusiasm today. Turnover was light as the Value Trade Ratio dropped to 59 bps. As a result, the Bank of Japan's fourth ¥200b intervention represented 6.3% of TOPIX Value Traded, a new record.      

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update - 30th March

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Event-Driven

Since the 17th of March we have published several notes regarding skews in performance between names that have heavy weights in TOPIX vs. those with heavy weights in the Nikkei. While it has required some very nimble trading the alpha generation if you were on the right side of the trades has been exceptionally good. We summarise the performance of the names we have highlighted and our thoughts on when to close out these trades below.

Since the 17th of March we have published several notes regarding skews in performance between names that have heavy weights in TOPIX vs. those with heavy weights in the Nikkei. While it has required some very nimble trading the alpha generation if you were on the right side of the trades has been exceptionally good. We summarise the performance of the names we have highlighted and our thoughts on when to close out these trades below.

Taking Stock of the Almost Excessive Alpha Generation From TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trades

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

When Japan's purveyor of hardy clothing and gear for labourers and plumbers became a hit with pregnant women, it was clear that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/workman-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8467:1" rel="noopener">Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP)</a> had successfully bridged the divide between workwear and the wider consumer market.
As a result, Workman’s share price broke ¥10,000 for the first time in mid-December and, as of today, remains above that threshold.
This reflects the extraordinary success of the Beisia-controlled retailer since it launched its consumer-targeted chain, Workman Plus, in October 2018, with same-store sales late last year rising by more than 20% after similar 20%+ increases in the same months the year before.
Its success has spawned new competitors, including from Fast Retailing and home centre retailers like Shimachu and Workman's sister chain, Cainz.
Workman, however, has a strong lead and keeps innovating. As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/oshadhi-kumarasiri" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3584" rel="noopener">Oshadhi Kumarasiri</a> pointed quite rightly out in his note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/workman-s-work-is-done-and-it-is-time-to-send-him-home" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>, Workman's share price looks expensive but over a five-year time frame, Workman is likely to fulfil all expectations.
The key to future growth is its private brands: Workman's own label merchandise still only accounts for 44% of sales but the ratio is rising fast. Its future success or failure will rest on its ability to generate new lines that appeal to general consumers and outdo the competition – including France's Decathlon chain – including pregnant women of course.
In the end, what makes Workman unique is the absolute integrity of its brand and provenance: No other brand can claim to offer high quality, high function items that have withstood the harsh-use environments of construction workers and fishermen for the last two decades – and at such genuinely low prices.
Japan's seemingly unquenchable thirst for real cost performance product is, in this case, perfectly matched by supply.

When Japan's purveyor of hardy clothing and gear for labourers and plumbers became a hit with pregnant women, it was clear that Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP) had successfully bridged the divide between workwear and the wider consumer market.
As a result, Workman’s share price broke ¥10,000 for the first time in mid-December and, as of today, remains above that threshold.
This reflects the extraordinary success of the Beisia-controlled retailer since it launched its consumer-targeted chain, Workman Plus, in October 2018, with same-store sales late last year rising by more than 20% after similar 20%+ increases in the same months the year before.
Its success has spawned new competitors, including from Fast Retailing and home centre retailers like Shimachu and Workman's sister chain, Cainz.
Workman, however, has a strong lead and keeps innovating. As Oshadhi Kumarasiri pointed quite rightly out in his note here, Workman's share price looks expensive but over a five-year time frame, Workman is likely to fulfil all expectations.
The key to future growth is its private brands: Workman's own label merchandise still only accounts for 44% of sales but the ratio is rising fast. Its future success or failure will rest on its ability to generate new lines that appeal to general consumers and outdo the competition – including France's Decathlon chain – including pregnant women of course.
In the end, what makes Workman unique is the absolute integrity of its brand and provenance: No other brand can claim to offer high quality, high function items that have withstood the harsh-use environments of construction workers and fishermen for the last two decades – and at such genuinely low prices.
Japan's seemingly unquenchable thirst for real cost performance product is, in this case, perfectly matched by supply.

Workman: Success Attracts New Competitors but in the Long-Term Workman Still Wins

Japan

SHIMAMURA CO., Ltd. operates chain stores selling mainly clothing for men, women, children, and also bedding and furnishing goods.  The Company has stores in mainly suburb areas throughout Japan.

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Shimamura (8227 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th June -Stayin' Home

STAYIN' HOME - Only two companies saw their Results & Revision Scores improve quarter-on-quarter amongst the thirteen that reported - DCM...

Campbell Gunn

Fast Retailing 2QFY20 Results: Revised Revenue Guidance Is More a Bull Scenario

2QFY20 was a challenging quarter for Japan’s largest apparel retailer Uniqlo. The company warned investors that the worst is yet to come as they...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update - 30th March

MONDAY 30th MARCH - As the Government of Japan and the Governor of Tokyo toy with ending its Swedish-style limited containment protocol, eleven...

Campbell Gunn

Taking Stock of the Almost Excessive Alpha Generation From TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trades

Since the 17th of March we have published several notes regarding skews in performance between names that have heavy weights in TOPIX vs. those...

Mio Kato

Workman: Success Attracts New Competitors but in the Long-Term Workman Still Wins

When Japan's purveyor of hardy clothing and gear for labourers and plumbers became a hit with pregnant women, it was clear that Workman Co Ltd...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)