Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

GigaDevice Semiconductor  / Technical Analysis

<p>Market dynamics remain largely positive which continues to support our constructive outlook, and we view recent weakness as a buying opportunity. Below we highlight notable recent developments and actionable stocks within the Technology, Financials, and Materials Sectors.</p>

Market dynamics remain largely positive which continues to support our constructive outlook, and we view recent weakness as a buying opportunity. Below we highlight notable recent developments and actionable stocks within the Technology, Financials, and Materials Sectors.

China Technology Sector Improving -- Add Exposure

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/change-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27414:1" rel="noopener">Change Inc (3962 JP)</a>  reported its 2QFY09/2021 results today where the company’s revenues increased 82% YoY while operating profit more than tripled to JPY701m compared to JPY156m in the same quarter a year ago. The strong performance for the quarter was primarily driven by the company’s Publitech business whose revenues grew more than 100% during the quarter.</p>

Change Inc (3962 JP)  reported its 2QFY09/2021 results today where the company’s revenues increased 82% YoY while operating profit more than tripled to JPY701m compared to JPY156m in the same quarter a year ago. The strong performance for the quarter was primarily driven by the company’s Publitech business whose revenues grew more than 100% during the quarter.

Change 2QFY21: PubliTech and M&A to Drive Earnings; Current Multiples Offer Good Buying Opportunity

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• LARGER CAP RESULTS - 8th APRIL •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/593/original/image_50653961221617916076677.png?1617916077" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199593"></figure><div class="content-caption"> Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics </div><p><strong>RESULTS</strong> - 48% of Thursday's 29 results announcements scored positively; however, of the largest caps, only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift (3697 JP)</a> had that distinction. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-mall-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5262:1" rel="noopener">AEON Mall (8905 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a>, both of which had revised down in the recent weeks, anchored the bottom of the table.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/595/original/image_25682293741617916377763.png?1617916379" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199595"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 8th APRIL •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/596/original/image_76440807551617916411847.png?1617916413" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199596"></figure><p><strong>FORECASTS/REVISIONS</strong> - Conversely, 81% of annual forecasts were positive, with Aeon Mall and Lawson particularly optimistic about FY22. Fast Retailing, which only has six months left to forecast, was more circumspect. For the second year in a row, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a> did not make an initial forecast with the full-year results. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/597/original/image_28112384961617916762514.png?1617916763" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199597"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/598/original/image_37677060271617916798074.png?1617916799" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199598"></figure>

• LARGER CAP RESULTS - 8th APRIL • Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics RESULTS - 48% of Thursday's 29 results announcements scored positively; however, of the largest caps, only Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and Shift (3697 JP) had that distinction. AEON Mall (8905 JP) and Lawson Inc (2651 JP), both of which had revised down in the recent weeks, anchored the bottom of the table.• FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 8th APRIL •FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Conversely, 81% of annual forecasts were positive, with Aeon Mall and Lawson particularly optimistic about FY22. Fast Retailing, which only has six months left to forecast, was more circumspect. For the second year in a row, Seven &amp; I (3382 JP) did not make an initial forecast with the full-year results. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​​​08 - 7&I Fast Re and Hisamitsu Dreams

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">As Japan re-enters its muted, month-long and region-specific version of 'lockdown', our best and worst larger-cap pairing for Thursday is the second-hand car dealer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nextage-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10326:1" rel="noopener">Nextage (3186 JP)</a> and GM retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/izumi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13173:1" rel="noopener">Izumi (8273 JP)</a>. We expect the 'lockdown' to be extended in both area and time later in January, capping the upside to fourth-quarter earnings for many listed companies. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/378/original/2021-01-08_05-51-53.png?1610052724" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181378"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/379/original/2021-01-08_05-52-46.png?1610052777" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181379"></figure></section><div style="text-align: center;" class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •As Japan re-enters its muted, month-long and region-specific version of 'lockdown', our best and worst larger-cap pairing for Thursday is the second-hand car dealer Nextage (3186 JP) and GM retailer Izumi (8273 JP). We expect the 'lockdown' to be extended in both area and time later in January, capping the upside to fourth-quarter earnings for many listed companies. Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​07 - Izumi, Shift, NEXTAGE

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><p>The best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; (3382 JP)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisamitsu-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17008:1" rel="noopener">Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP)</a>. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/164/154/original/2020-10-09_05-45-20.png?1602189939" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="164154"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/164/155/original/2020-10-09_05-46-28.png?1602190006" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="164155"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>26 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 46% Positive / 0% Neutral / 54% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -2.0 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -3.0% Quarter YoY / -0.1% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -3.2ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 19%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>18 Annual • 9 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 33% Positive / 6% Neutral / 61% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 44% Positive / 0% Neutral / 56% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -5.6 point</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •The best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is Seven &amp; (3382 JP)  and Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP). Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

DAILY STATS
26 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 46% Positive / 0% Neutral / 54% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -2.0 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -3.0% Quarter YoY / -0.1% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -3.2ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 19%
18 Annual • 9 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 33% Positive / 6% Neutral / 61% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 44% Positive / 0% Neutral / 56% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -5.6 point


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions: 10/​​​​​​​​​08 - Shift, Seven&I/Lawson, Hisamitsu, Nippon Shokubai

Japan

SHIFT Inc. offers information technology outsourcing services. The Company provides outsourcing software testing services to corporations and individual clients. SHIFT also provides software solutions and consulting services, as well as educational classes and programs.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shift Inc (3697 JP)

China Technology Sector Improving -- Add Exposure

Market dynamics remain largely positive which continues to support our constructive outlook, and we view recent weakness as a buying opportunity....

Vermilion Research

Change 2QFY21: PubliTech and M&A to Drive Earnings; Current Multiples Offer Good Buying Opportunity

Change reported its 2QFY09/2021 results today where the company’s revenues increased 82% YoY while operating profit more than tripled to JPY701m...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/08 - 7&I Fast Re and Hisamitsu Dreams

RESULTS - 48% of Thursday's 29 results announcements scored positively; however, of the largest caps, only Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and Shift (3697...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 01/07 - Izumi, Shift, NEXTAGE

As Japan re-enters its muted, month-long and region-specific version of 'lockdown', our best and worst larger-cap pairing for Thursday is Nextage...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions: 10/08 - Shift, Seven&I/Lawson, Hisamitsu, Nippon Shokubai

• BEST & WORST • The best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is DAILY STATS 21 Quarterly Results Results Score: 62%...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Technology Sector Improving -- Add Exposure

Market dynamics remain largely positive which continues to support our constructive outlook, and we view recent weakness as a buying opportunity....

Vermilion Research

Change 2QFY21: PubliTech and M&A to Drive Earnings; Current Multiples Offer Good Buying Opportunity

Change reported its 2QFY09/2021 results today where the company’s revenues increased 82% YoY while operating profit more than tripled to JPY701m...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​​​08 - 7&I Fast Re and Hisamitsu Dreams

RESULTS - 48% of Thursday's 29 results announcements scored positively; however, of the largest caps, only Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and Shift (3697...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​07 - Izumi, Shift, NEXTAGE

As Japan re-enters its muted, month-long and region-specific version of 'lockdown', our best and worst larger-cap pairing for Thursday is Nextage...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions: 10/​​​​​​​​​08 - Shift, Seven&I/Lawson, Hisamitsu, Nippon Shokubai

• BEST & WORST • The best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is DAILY STATS 21 Quarterly Results Results Score: 62%...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/08 - 7&I Fast Re and Hisamitsu Dreams

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 01/07 - Izumi, Shift, NEXTAGE

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions: 10/08 - Shift, Seven&I/Lawson, Hisamitsu, Nippon Shokubai