HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The anti-corruption campaign has significantly accelerated since the beginning of this year. After Central Commission for Discipline Inspection has been involved, the anti-corruption efforts in pharmaceutical/device sectors would be unprecedented.</li>
<li>The main targets are leaders of hospitals/governments. The impact of anti-corruption on companies is indirect. As long as senior management are not investigated/arrested, the impact on stock price isn’t significant.</li>
<li>However, investors not only need to consider the problem of sales growth slowing down in the context of anti-corruption, but also consider whether companies is engaging in financial fraud. </li>
</ul>


The anti-corruption campaign has significantly accelerated since the beginning of this year. After Central Commission for Discipline Inspection has been involved, the anti-corruption efforts in pharmaceutical/device sectors would be unprecedented.
The main targets are leaders of hospitals/governments. The impact of anti-corruption on companies is indirect. As long as senior management are not investigated/arrested, the impact on stock price isn’t significant.
However, investors not only need to consider the problem of sales growth slowing down in the context of anti-corruption, but also consider whether companies is engaging in financial fraud. 


Anti-Corruption in China Healthcare – the Impact and the Outlook

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Consumer Discretionary (inflows of $2,146 million), Financials (inflows of $1,619 million), Consumer Staples (inflows of $1,100 million) led the inflows while led the outflows.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Moutai, CATL, BYD, Wuliangye, East Money, Haitian Flavoring, Luxshare, Longi Green, Wus Printed, Yonyou Network.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Consumer Discretionary (inflows of $2,146 million), Financials (inflows of $1,619 million), Consumer Staples (inflows of $1,100 million) led the inflows while led the outflows.
We highlight flows for Moutai, CATL, BYD, Wuliangye, East Money, Haitian Flavoring, Luxshare, Longi Green, Wus Printed, Yonyou Network.


Northbound Flows Monthly (July): $7.3bn Inflows

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 28th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$5,187.1 million, led by financials, consumer staples, industrials sectors, and offset by information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Moutai, CATL, East Money Information, Wuliangye, Ping An Insurance, Haitian Flavouring, LUxshare, BOE.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 28th.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$5,187.1 million, led by financials, consumer staples, industrials sectors, and offset by information technology.
We highlight flows for Moutai, CATL, East Money Information, Wuliangye, Ping An Insurance, Haitian Flavouring, LUxshare, BOE.


Northbound Flows (Jul 28th): $5.2bn Inflows

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 7th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,104.6 million, led by consumer staples, financials, and offset by consumer discretionary, communication services, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Zte, BYD, Goertek, CATL, CMB, Moutai, Focus Media Information Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 7th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,104.6 million, led by consumer staples, financials, and offset by consumer discretionary, communication services, utilities.
We highlight flows for Zte, BYD, Goertek, CATL, CMB, Moutai, Focus Media Information Technology.


Northbound Flows (Jul 7th): ZTE, BYD, Goertek, CATL, CMB, Moutai, Focus Media

Equity Bottom-Up

Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech C-A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>COVID-19 didn’t bring Wondfo explosive performance growth because China’s official COVID-19 detection method is nucleic acid test while Wondfo’s strength is antigen detection,which is used in later stage of COVID-19.</li>
<li>Revenue growth would slow down in 2023 due to the high base last year.2023 is a good time to bottom fish this stock as Wondfo’s performance growth would recover afterwards.</li>
<li>After continuous corrections, the current valuation is already at a low level, and has already priced in the negative impact of the decline in COVID-19 business and IVD centralized procurement.</li>
</ul>


COVID-19 didn’t bring Wondfo explosive performance growth because China’s official COVID-19 detection method is nucleic acid test while Wondfo’s strength is antigen detection,which is used in later stage of COVID-19.
Revenue growth would slow down in 2023 due to the high base last year.2023 is a good time to bottom fish this stock as Wondfo’s performance growth would recover afterwards.
After continuous corrections, the current valuation is already at a low level, and has already priced in the negative impact of the decline in COVID-19 business and IVD centralized procurement.


Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech (300482.CH) - Time to Bottom Fish?

China

Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes medical equipment. The Company produces life information supporting, in vitro diagnostic, and medical imaging equipment equipment. Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics also produces supporting reagents.

Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760 CH)

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Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760 CH)

Anti-Corruption in China Healthcare – the Impact and the Outlook

The share prices of China healthcare are now plummeting due to anti-corruption campaign, which will reach a climax in 23H2 (We'll post updates in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Northbound Flows Monthly (July): $7.3bn Inflows

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for July and highlight flows for Moutai, CATL, BYD, Wuliangye, East Money, Haitian Flavoring,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Jul 28th): $5.2bn Inflows

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for Moutai, CATL, East Money Information, Wuliangye, Ping An...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Jul 7th): ZTE, BYD, Goertek, CATL, CMB, Moutai, Focus Media

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Zte, BYD, Goertek, CATL, CMB, Moutai, Focus Media.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech (300482.CH) - Time to Bottom Fish?

Overall revenue growth would inevitably slow down in 2023, but Wondfo's non-COVID business recovered well in 23Q1, which shows us the momentum to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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