IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34119:1" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics (1292621D CH)</a> operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.</p>
<p>At the proposed IPO price range of HK$13.88-16.88 per share, ANE will have a market cap of HK$16,137-19,625 million ($2.1-2.5 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are HK$1,124.1 million ($144 million), materially below the rumoured target of $500 million.</p>
<p>A single cornerstone investor, Harvest Prosperity SP, will purchase $12.5 million worth of the offer shares (7.88% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). </p>
</div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ane-logistics-ipo-initiation-home-delivery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57807" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery</a>, we stated that ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. We concluded that ANE’s fundamentals are solid. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ane-ipo-the-freight-debate" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57957" rel="noopener">ANE IPO: The Freight Debate</a>, we stated that the PHIP continues to support our view that the ANE IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs. Our valuation analysis, suggests that the IPO price range is attractive particularly at the low-end.</p></div></div></div>


ANE Logistics (1292621D CH) operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.
At the proposed IPO price range of HK$13.88-16.88 per share, ANE will have a market cap of HK$16,137-19,625 million ($2.1-2.5 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are HK$1,124.1 million ($144 million), materially below the rumoured target of $500 million.
A single cornerstone investor, Harvest Prosperity SP, will purchase $12.5 million worth of the offer shares (7.88% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). 
In ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery, we stated that ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. We concluded that ANE’s fundamentals are solid. In ANE IPO: The Freight Debate, we stated that the PHIP continues to support our view that the ANE IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs. Our valuation analysis, suggests that the IPO price range is attractive particularly at the low-end.

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Shenzhen International / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We consider the plan by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen International (152 HK)</a> to dispose of its 35.7% direct stake in the Meilin Checkpoint Project a strategic move to move forward its earnings and cash flow from the development. Under normal course, it will have to wait for another 2-3 years to realise such gains and cash. In our view, investors should welcome this decision as the move will also cover an earnings gap in FY21 originally left over from FY20 due to a lack of exceptional gain in this year.</p><p>With a potential capital gain of Rmb2.9bn (HK$3.5bn), SZI is likely to record a historical high net profit for FY21. Moreover, its track record of sharing exceptional gain with investors through special dividends may mean a dividend yield of 12% for FY21 based on the current share price. The enriched financial position will also provide SZI more resources for pursuing logistics expansion, and it has just announced a logistics acquisition in Pingshan, Shenzhen.   </p>

We consider the plan by Shenzhen International (152 HK) to dispose of its 35.7% direct stake in the Meilin Checkpoint Project a strategic move to move forward its earnings and cash flow from the development. Under normal course, it will have to wait for another 2-3 years to realise such gains and cash. In our view, investors should welcome this decision as the move will also cover an earnings gap in FY21 originally left over from FY20 due to a lack of exceptional gain in this year.With a potential capital gain of Rmb2.9bn (HK$3.5bn), SZI is likely to record a historical high net profit for FY21. Moreover, its track record of sharing exceptional gain with investors through special dividends may mean a dividend yield of 12% for FY21 based on the current share price. The enriched financial position will also provide SZI more resources for pursuing logistics expansion, and it has just announced a logistics acquisition in Pingshan, Shenzhen.   

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Cashing in Future Earnings

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34119:1" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics (1292621D CH)</a> operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch.</p><p>ANE is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ane-logistics-ipo-initiation-home-delivery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57807" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery</a>, we stated that ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. We concluded that ANE’s fundamentals are solid. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we look at the PHIP which discloses the 4M21 results and recent developments. The PHIP continues to support our view that the ANE IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs.</p></div>

ANE Logistics (1292621D CH) operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch.ANE is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.In ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery, we stated that ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. We concluded that ANE’s fundamentals are solid. In this note, we look at the PHIP which discloses the 4M21 results and recent developments. The PHIP continues to support our view that the ANE IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs.

<p>We came back with a positive view on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen International (152 HK)</a> after a brief catch-up discussion with the company. For 2H21, we see upside potential in earnings and our takeaways are also encouraging. We see possibility for higher earnings contribution from the Meilin Checkpoint project and logistics business on asset divestment. At just 6x PER, 0.6x P/B (-2 SD below average) and 8.6% dividend yield for FY21, SZI's valuations are attractive relative to the fundamentals.</p><p>Strategically, the new CEO will foster closer working relations with its parent and affiliates, it is a beneficiary of the Qianhai expansion (as it still has 40% land yet to be developed) and it sees possibility of participation in the booming air cargo terminal business of Air China. We believe the recent share price weakness is a good opportunity for this interesting name in the Greater Bay Area. </p>

We came back with a positive view on Shenzhen International (152 HK) after a brief catch-up discussion with the company. For 2H21, we see upside potential in earnings and our takeaways are also encouraging. We see possibility for higher earnings contribution from the Meilin Checkpoint project and logistics business on asset divestment. At just 6x PER, 0.6x P/B (-2 SD below average) and 8.6% dividend yield for FY21, SZI's valuations are attractive relative to the fundamentals.Strategically, the new CEO will foster closer working relations with its parent and affiliates, it is a beneficiary of the Qianhai expansion (as it still has 40% land yet to be developed) and it sees possibility of participation in the booming air cargo terminal business of Air China. We believe the recent share price weakness is a good opportunity for this interesting name in the Greater Bay Area. 

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Positive Highlights from Recent Catch-Up with Company

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34119:1" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics (1292621D CH)</a> operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch.</p><p>ANE passed its HKEx listing committee hearing and will start pre-marketing to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlyle-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33402:1" rel="noopener">Carlyle Group Inc (CG US)</a>, CDH, CPE, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nws-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3350:1" rel="noopener">Nws Holdings (659 HK)</a>, Ping An, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldman-sachs-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:785:1" rel="noopener">Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inner-mongolia-yili-indus-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3220:1" rel="noopener">Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)</a>.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. On balance, we think that ANE’s fundamentals are solid and the IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs. </p></div>

ANE Logistics (1292621D CH) operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch.ANE passed its HKEx listing committee hearing and will start pre-marketing to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, Carlyle Group Inc (CG US), CDH, CPE, Nws Holdings (659 HK), Ping An, Goldman Sachs Group (GS US) and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH).ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. On balance, we think that ANE’s fundamentals are solid and the IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs. 

ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery

Hong Kong

Shenzhen International Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides investment, construction, and operation of logistic infrastructure facilities, as well as offers value-added logistic services. Shenzhen International serves customers worldwide.

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Shenzhen International (152 HK)

ANE IPO: Valuation Insights

At the proposed IPO price range of HK$13.88-16.88 per share, the net proceeds are $144 m. Our valuation analysis, suggests that the IPO price range...

Arun George

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Cashing in Future Earnings

The disposal of Meilin Checkpoint Project should be a welcomed move to shift earnings and cash flow ahead. SZI is likely to share with investors...

Osbert Tang, CFA

ANE IPO: The Freight Debate

ANE is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 m. The PHIP continues to support our view that the ANE is worth a look for investors willing...

Arun George

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Positive Highlights from Recent Catch-Up with Company

We believe the takeways from our catch-up with SZE are encouraging, and we see upside potential for earnings in 2H21 to come from both Meilin...

Osbert Tang, CFA

ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery

ANE will start pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 m. We think that ANE’s fundamentals are solid and the IPO is worth a look for...

Arun George

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