Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last week,  cryptocurrency fever undermined the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15002" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a> GDR arb; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2283" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2283:1">Hopewell Holdings Ltd (54 HK)</a> will be cashed up after exiting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12134" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12134:1">Hopewell Highway Infrastructure Ltd (737 HK)</a>; collapsing the circularity of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16050" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16050:1">Lotte Holdings (004990 KS)</a>'s affiliates is a precursor to IPO'ing Hotel Lotte; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20712" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20712:1">Hyosung Corporation (004800 KS)</a> joins the Korean Holdco restructuring club.<h2>Events </h2><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15002" target="_blank">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>  (Mkt Cap: $9.9bn; Liquidity: $128mn)The trading situation surrounding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15002" target="_blank">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>'s GDR issuance is in disarray after media reports that  Kakao was the second largest shareholder (25.85% stake) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/www.dunamu.com" target="_blank">Dunamu</a>. Kakao's share price is up 24% since the Dec 26th media leak.<ul><li>Dunamu? It is a Korean fintech startup which operates Kakao stock apps for securities trading. But the big news is that it operates UPbit, one of Korea's largest cryptocurrency exchanges. UPbit's daily trading amount is now ₩7tn (exceeding KOSDAQ's total daily trading amount) and generates about ₩3.5bn in profits a day through transaction fees. </li><li>It was known back in 2015 that Kakao had a position in Dunamu – just that the actual % stake held was unclear. The absorption of the forthcoming GDR issuance was viewed as an overhang. Making public Kakao is the second largest shareholder of Korea's hottest cryptocurrency exchange operator just removed that overhang. Given the unpredictable nature of the cryptocurrency euphoria, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/354" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:354">Sanghyun Park</a> suggests staying out of the GDR arb trade for now. The roadshow/bookbuilding for the GDR commences today.</li></ul><table class="table table-striped"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2">Schedule of Upcoming Events for the GDR</td></tr><tr><td>Board resolution</td><td>Dec 15</td></tr><tr><td>Roadshow &amp; bookbuilding process</td><td>Jan 8-17</td></tr><tr><td>Subscription (purchase agreement)</td><td>Jan 18-23</td></tr><tr><td>Settlement</td><td>Jan 24</td></tr><tr><td>GDR issuance</td><td>Jan 25</td></tr><tr><td>Listing of underlying shares in KOSPI</td><td>Feb 1</td></tr><tr><td>Listing of GDRs in Singapore Exchange</td><td>Feb 2</td></tr></tbody></table><div class="content-caption">Source: DART</div>(link to Sanghyun's insight: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-s-sudden-rise-as-a-cryptocurrency-stock-gdr-arb-trade-event" target="_blank">Kakao’s Sudden Rise as a Cryptocurrency Stock &amp; GDR Arb Trade Event</a>)<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2283" target="_blank">Hopewell Holdings Ltd (54 HK)</a> (Mkt Cap: $3.5bn; Liquidity: $2.3mn)<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/263" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:263">Pranav Rao</a> discussed the <a href="http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/SEHK/2017/1229/LTN20171229605.pdf" target="_blank">sale</a> of Hopewell Holdings Ltd ("HHL")'s 66.69% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12134" target="_blank">Hopewell Highway Infrastructure Ltd (737 HK; "HHI")</a> to Shenzhen Investment Holdings Co. (“SIHC”), a vehicle under the Shenzhen Municipal Government, at HK$4.80/share. Upon completion, SIHC will make an unconditional MGO for the remaining shares in HHI.<ul><li>Pricing for HHI looks reasonable on PER/PBR metrics compared to expressway peers (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2875" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2875:1">Shenzhen Expressway Co H (548 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5236" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5236:1">Anhui Expressway Co Ltd H (995 HK)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15375" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15375:1">Sichuan Expressway Co H (107 HK)</a>). Apart from the leg down in earnings in 2013 after Guangzhou’s toll rate unification, the public holiday toll-free policy, and potential traffic diversion, HHI's profit has been nothing if not consistent. The commissioning of the two phases of the Western Delta Route (WDR) in 2011 &amp; 2013 was responsible for the recent pick up in the bottom line in FY16 and FY17 (HHI has a June year-end). WDR, which turned profitable in FY16, accounts for ~16% of HHI's earnings.</li><li>In any event, the SPA has been agreed upon by both the buyer &amp; seller,  HHL has the votes to push through the simple majority vote at the EGM, and assuming no hiccups on the PRC regulatory front, this sale should complete quickly. Pranav would be a buyer at HK$4.81-4.82 for the HK$4.80 put.</li><li>HHL looks interesting at 0.58x book and 0.49x P/RNAV, with a net cash per share of HK$13.28 – or around 40% of its market cap. The current discount to NAV is ~46%. HHL is up 10% on the SPA news and may get another leg up as the SPA completes, and a special dividend is announced, as per para 2, page 6 of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/lab/compose/in-depth/www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/SEHK/2017/1229/LTN20171229605.pdf" target="_blank">announcement</a>.</li></ul>(link to Pranav's insight:  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hopewell-highway-infra-shenzhen-investment-diverging-roads" target="_blank">Hopewell Highway Infra / Shenzhen Investment: Diverging Roads</a>)<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16050" target="_blank">Lotte Holdings (004990 KS)</a> (Mkt Cap: $4.8bn; Liquidity: $39.6mn)<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16050" target="_blank">Lotte Holdings (004990 KS)</a> said it would merge with six of its unlisted affiliates to remove all of the remaining circular shareholding links. This merger decision will be put to a vote at Lotte Holdings and the six affiliates on Feb 27. The appraisal rights exercise period is Feb 27-Mar 19 and the merger should be completed by Apr 1.<ul><li>Sans the circular shareholding links, Lotte Group would proceed to the second phase of its restructuring, including the Hotel Lotte IPO. This will strengthen Shin Dong-bin’s control of the Lotte Group.</li><li>This “strengthening” impact is complicated, and a follow-up note from Sanghyun will provide a more detailed explanation. In short, Dong-bin’s brother, Dong-yu, controls Lotte Japan, which is the largest shareholder in Hotel Lotte.  For Dong-bin to re-take Hotel Lotte, the most effective way to dilute Lotte Japan’s stake is to IPO Hotel Lotte.</li></ul>(link to Sanghyun's insight: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/summary-of-lotte-holdings-merger-involving-6-unlisted-affiliates" target="_blank">Summary of Lotte Holdings Merger Involving 6 Unlisted Affiliates</a>)<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/483" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:483:1">Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk Pt (BTPN IJ)</a> (Mkt Cap: $2.7bn; Liquidity: $7.3mn)Subsequent to MUFG's announced acquisition of Temasek's stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/135" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:135:1">Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk (BDMN IJ)</a>, SMFG's CEO <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-smfg-strategy/japans-smfg-keen-to-raise-stake-in-indonesian-bank-btpn-to-majority-idUSKBN1EJ0PI" target="_blank">said</a> it wants to raise its 40% stake in BTPN to a majority.<ul><li>As Pranav discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-danamon-takeover-redux" target="_blank">Bank Danamon: Takeover Redux</a>, the issues faced by DBS in its acquisition of Danamon in 2012 may have eased somewhat. Pranav also indicated that Japan's relationship with Indonesia on the financial services front was positive, while also noting SMFG's "<a href="http://www.smbc.co.jp/global/asia/id/en/" target="_blank">commitment to Indonesia</a>".</li><li>Who would sell? Summit Global, a pseudo related-party to SMFG given it is a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5380" target="_blank">Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP)</a>, holds 20%. </li><li>Whether the foreign investment threshold is raised or not, BTPN is a quality lender trading at 0.85x book, with peers trading at a median multiple of 2.0x, while the median for precedent transactions taking place at 2.3x.</li></ul>(link to Pranav's insight: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-tabungan-pensiunan-nasional-majority-report" target="_blank">Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional: Majority Report</a>)<hr><h2>Stubs</h2><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20712" target="_blank">Hyosung Corporation (004800 KS)</a> (Mkt Cap: $4.7bn; Liquidity: $24.6mn)<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20712" target="_blank">Hyosung Corporation (004800 KS)</a> announced it will transform into a Holdco and spin-off four business units, including textile, heavy industries, industrial materials, and chemical. The Holdco will own a 39.3% stake in the new entity while the four subsidiaries will hold a combined 60.7% stake in the new entity. <ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/342" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:342">Douglas Kim</a> believes the restructuring is positive for Hyosung as it will enable greater corporate transparency, especially for the core businesses such as advanced materials and textile. </li><li>A further boost to Hyosung is the potential sale of its subsidiaries, which would bolster its balance sheet and further simplify its organisational structure. Subsidiaries to be sold may include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15209" target="_blank">Hyosungitx Co Ltd (094280 KS)</a>( Hyosung has a 27.99% stake);  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7914" target="_blank">Chin Hung International (002780 KS)</a> (48.2% stake) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11365" target="_blank">Shinwha Intertek Corp (056700 KS)</a> (15.3% stake). Combined, these stakes total ~4% of Hyosung's market cap.</li></ul>(link to Douglas' insight: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hyosung-s-transformation-into-a-holdco-four-subsidiaries-part-1" target="_blank">Hyosung’s Transformation into a Holdco + Four Subsidiaries (Part 1)</a>)

Last week,  cryptocurrency fever undermined the Kakao Corp (035720 KS) GDR arb; Hopewell Holdings Ltd (54 HK) will be cashed up after exiting Hopewell Highway Infrastructure Ltd (737 HK); collapsing the circularity of Lotte Holdings (004990 KS)'s affiliates is a precursor to IPO'ing Hotel Lotte; and Hyosung Corporation (004800 KS) joins the Korean Holdco restructuring club.Events  Kakao Corp (035720 KS)  (Mkt Cap: $9.9bn; Liquidity: $128mn)The trading situation surrounding Kakao Corp (035720 KS)'s GDR issuance is in disarray after media reports that  Kakao was the second largest shareholder (25.85% stake) of Dunamu. Kakao's share price is up 24% since the Dec 26th media leak.Dunamu? It is a Korean fintech startup which operates Kakao stock apps for securities trading. But the big news is that it operates UPbit, one of Korea's largest cryptocurrency exchanges. UPbit's daily trading amount is now ₩7tn (exceeding KOSDAQ's total daily trading amount) and generates about ₩3.5bn in profits a day through transaction fees. It was known back in 2015 that Kakao had a position in Dunamu – just that the actual % stake held was unclear. The absorption of the forthcoming GDR issuance was viewed as an overhang. Making public Kakao is the second largest shareholder of Korea's hottest cryptocurrency exchange operator just removed that overhang. Given the unpredictable nature of the cryptocurrency euphoria, Sanghyun Park suggests staying out of the GDR arb trade for now. The roadshow/bookbuilding for the GDR commences today.Schedule of Upcoming Events for the GDRBoard resolutionDec 15Roadshow &amp; bookbuilding processJan 8-17Subscription (purchase agreement)Jan 18-23SettlementJan 24GDR issuanceJan 25Listing of underlying shares in KOSPIFeb 1Listing of GDRs in Singapore ExchangeFeb 2Source: DART(link to Sanghyun's insight: Kakao’s Sudden Rise as a Cryptocurrency Stock &amp; GDR Arb Trade Event)Hopewell Holdings Ltd (54 HK) (Mkt Cap: $3.5bn; Liquidity: $2.3mn)Pranav Rao discussed the sale of Hopewell Holdings Ltd ("HHL")'s 66.69% stake in Hopewell Highway Infrastructure Ltd (737 HK; "HHI") to Shenzhen Investment Holdings Co. (“SIHC”), a vehicle under the Shenzhen Municipal Government, at HK$4.80/share. Upon completion, SIHC will make an unconditional MGO for the remaining shares in HHI.Pricing for HHI looks reasonable on PER/PBR metrics compared to expressway peers (Shenzhen Expressway Co H (548 HK), Anhui Expressway Co Ltd H (995 HK) &amp; Sichuan Expressway Co H (107 HK)). Apart from the leg down in earnings in 2013 after Guangzhou’s toll rate unification, the public holiday toll-free policy, and potential traffic diversion, HHI's profit has been nothing if not consistent. The commissioning of the two phases of the Western Delta Route (WDR) in 2011 &amp; 2013 was responsible for the recent pick up in the bottom line in FY16 and FY17 (HHI has a June year-end). WDR, which turned profitable in FY16, accounts for ~16% of HHI's earnings.In any event, the SPA has been agreed upon by both the buyer &amp; seller,  HHL has the votes to push through the simple majority vote at the EGM, and assuming no hiccups on the PRC regulatory front, this sale should complete quickly. Pranav would be a buyer at HK$4.81-4.82 for the HK$4.80 put.HHL looks interesting at 0.58x book and 0.49x P/RNAV, with a net cash per share of HK$13.28 – or around 40% of its market cap. The current discount to NAV is ~46%. HHL is up 10% on the SPA news and may get another leg up as the SPA completes, and a special dividend is announced, as per para 2, page 6 of the announcement.(link to Pranav's insight:  Hopewell Highway Infra / Shenzhen Investment: Diverging Roads)Lotte Holdings (004990 KS) (Mkt Cap: $4.8bn; Liquidity: $39.6mn)Lotte Holdings (004990 KS) said it would merge with six of its unlisted affiliates to remove all of the remaining circular shareholding links. This merger decision will be put to a vote at Lotte Holdings and the six affiliates on Feb 27. The appraisal rights exercise period is Feb 27-Mar 19 and the merger should be completed by Apr 1.Sans the circular shareholding links, Lotte Group would proceed to the second phase of its restructuring, including the Hotel Lotte IPO. This will strengthen Shin Dong-bin’s control of the Lotte Group.This “strengthening” impact is complicated, and a follow-up note from Sanghyun will provide a more detailed explanation. In short, Dong-bin’s brother, Dong-yu, controls Lotte Japan, which is the largest shareholder in Hotel Lotte.  For Dong-bin to re-take Hotel Lotte, the most effective way to dilute Lotte Japan’s stake is to IPO Hotel Lotte.(link to Sanghyun's insight: Summary of Lotte Holdings Merger Involving 6 Unlisted Affiliates)Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk Pt (BTPN IJ) (Mkt Cap: $2.7bn; Liquidity: $7.3mn)Subsequent to MUFG's announced acquisition of Temasek's stake in Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk (BDMN IJ), SMFG's CEO said it wants to raise its 40% stake in BTPN to a majority.As Pranav discussed in Bank Danamon: Takeover Redux, the issues faced by DBS in its acquisition of Danamon in 2012 may have eased somewhat. Pranav also indicated that Japan's relationship with Indonesia on the financial services front was positive, while also noting SMFG's "commitment to Indonesia".Who would sell? Summit Global, a pseudo related-party to SMFG given it is a subsidiary of Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP), holds 20%. Whether the foreign investment threshold is raised or not, BTPN is a quality lender trading at 0.85x book, with peers trading at a median multiple of 2.0x, while the median for precedent transactions taking place at 2.3x.(link to Pranav's insight: Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional: Majority Report)StubsHyosung Corporation (004800 KS) (Mkt Cap: $4.7bn; Liquidity: $24.6mn)Hyosung Corporation (004800 KS) announced it will transform into a Holdco and spin-off four business units, including textile, heavy industries, industrial materials, and chemical. The Holdco will own a 39.3% stake in the new entity while the four subsidiaries will hold a combined 60.7% stake in the new entity. Douglas Kim believes the restructuring is positive for Hyosung as it will enable greater corporate transparency, especially for the core businesses such as advanced materials and textile. A further boost to Hyosung is the potential sale of its subsidiaries, which would bolster its balance sheet and further simplify its organisational structure. Subsidiaries to be sold may include Hyosungitx Co Ltd (094280 KS)( Hyosung has a 27.99% stake);  Chin Hung International (002780 KS) (48.2% stake) and Shinwha Intertek Corp (056700 KS) (15.3% stake). Combined, these stakes total ~4% of Hyosung's market cap.(link to Douglas' insight: Hyosung’s Transformation into a Holdco + Four Subsidiaries (Part 1))

Last Week in Event SPACE – Kakao, Hopewell, Lotte, Hyosung

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Capital Markets

Rke International Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24206" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24206:1">RKE International Holdings Limited (3682 HK)</a> is raising up to US$295m in its upcoming IPO. Proceeds will be used to acquire new expressway projects, expand existing expressways, and fund general working capital.In this insight, we will look at the expressways' operational performance, potential competition, regulatory risks, and value it relative to peers and parent company, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7845" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7845:1">Road King Infrastructure Limited (1098 HK)</a>. As usual, we will also run the deal through our ECM framework.

RKE International Holdings Limited (3682 HK) is raising up to US$295m in its upcoming IPO. Proceeds will be used to acquire new expressway projects, expand existing expressways, and fund general working capital.In this insight, we will look at the expressways' operational performance, potential competition, regulatory risks, and value it relative to peers and parent company, Road King Infrastructure Limited (1098 HK). As usual, we will also run the deal through our ECM framework.

RKE International IPO Review - High Dividend Yield Reflects Inherent Risks that Are Beyond Control

China

Beibuwan Port Co., Ltd. provides support services for water transportation, including loading and unloading, storage, transportation, and other port related services. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also acts as an oversea transportation agent and develops real estate.

Zhejiang Expressway Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, designs, constructs, operates, and manages high grade roads, as well as develops and operates certain ancillary services, such as technical consultation, advertising, automobile servicing, and fuel facilities.

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Co., Ltd. operates the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport and provides related transportation services, including ground, passenger, storage, airplane maintenance and repair, and other services.  The Company also provides food, space rental, and advertising services.

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (600004 CH)

China Merchants Port Group Co., Ltd. offers port operation services. The Company mainly develops, operates, and manages ports. China Merchants Port Group also provides bonded logistics services.

Tianjin Port Co., Ltd. operates the Tianjin Port and provides related services including loading and unloading, storage, and transportation services.  The Company also acts as a freight transportation agency.

Anhui Expressway Co. Ltd. principally holds, operates and develops toll expressways and highways in Anhui province in China.

Anhui Wanjiang Logistics Group Co Ltd provides loading, unloading, storage, and transition services for coal, containers, bulk and general marine cargo.

Liaoning Port Co.,Ltd. provides logistics services. The Company offers container handling, container transportation, crude oil warehousing, gross cargo transportation, and other services. Liaoning Port provides its services throughout China.

Tangshan Port Group Co., Ltd. provides bulk cargo handling, transport, warehousing and other logistics business.  The Company also offers utilities, port information and other professional port services.

Shenzhen Airport Co., Ltd. provides airport terminal ground passenger transportation and cargo delivery services.  The Company also leases airport lounge, designs and publishes advertisements, and offers air ticket agency services.

Malaysia Airports Holdings Berhad is an investment holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides management, maintenance, and operation of designated airports.  Malaysia Airports also operates duty-free and non-duty free stores as well as provides food and beverage outlets at the airports.

Port of Tauranga Limited activities include the provision of wharf facilities, back up land for the storage and transit of import and export cargo, berthage, cranes, tug and pilotage services for exporters, importers and shipping companies and the leasing of land and buildings.  The Group also operates a container terminal and has bulk cargo marshalling operations.

Westports Holdings Berhad provides port services. The Company offers container and cargo services, marine services, rental services and other ancillary services. Westports provides its services to the import and export industries.

Kamigumi Co., Ltd. provides port-harbor transportation services.  The Company's services include port-harbor transport, warehousing, trucking, packing, and heavy cargo transport.  Kamigumi also provides other services like real estate, insurance agency operations, sports clubs, and restaurant management.

Mitsubishi Logistics Corporation provides warehousing, logistics, and other distribution services in Japan, the United States, and Asia.  The Company operates ground, port-harbor, and international intermodal transport as well as real estate leasing.

PT Jasa Marga Persero Tbk operates the Indonesian highway system.  The Company collects tolls, maintains the road surfaces, and offers towing and ambulance services.

Japan Airport Terminal Co., Ltd. constructs, manages and maintains passenger terminals and airport facilities at Haneda and Narita airports.  The Company operates parking-lots, souvenir shops, and duty-free stores.  Japan Airport Terminal, through its subsidiaries, manages restaurants and in-flight meal services.

SATS Limited provides integrated ground handling and in-flight catering services at Singapore Changi Airport.  The Company also provides aviation security, airline laundry, and airport cargo delivery management services.

Hamburger Hafen und Logistik AG (HHLA) provides services to the port in the European North Range.  The Company's container terminals, transport systems, and logistic services provide a network between overseas port and European hinterland.

Hamburger Hafen und Logistik AG (HHFA GR)

Bangkok Expressway and Metro PCL is a transportation company. The Company combines toll and metro line networks. Bangkok Expressway and Metro is based in Thailand.

Shenzhen Expressway Company Limited offers toll expressway and road construction and investment services. The Company provides expressway operation, maintenance, and service station leasing services. Shenzhen Expressway also conducts real estate development, advertising, and engineering consulting businesses.

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Shenzhen Expressway Company (600548 CH)

Last Week in Event SPACE – Kakao, Hopewell, Lotte, Hyosung

Last week, cryptocurrency fever undermined the Kakao Corp (035720 KS) GDR arb; Hopewell Holdings Ltd (54 HK) will be cashed up after exiting...

David Blennerhassett

RKE International IPO Review - High Dividend Yield Reflects Inherent Risks that Are Beyond Control

RKE International Holdings Limited (3682 HK) is raising up to US$295m in its upcoming IPO. Proceeds will be used to acquire new expressway...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

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