'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/175/629/original/2020-12-01_06-32-57.png?1606771992" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="175629"></figure></section><p><strong>FOUR QUADRANTS </strong>- By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-</p></section><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>CONTRARIAN BUYS </strong>- Low Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>CONTRARIAN SELLS </strong>- High Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>TURNAROUND BUYS </strong>- High Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; low Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>EX-GROWTH</strong><strong>SELLS</strong> - Low Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; high Relative Price Scores</li>
</ul></div><div>
<p>Turnaround Buys are quite rare but tend to offer reasonable upside for relatively low risk. Examples from 2020 include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lixil-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:454:1" rel="noopener">Lixil (5938 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17084:1" rel="noopener">NEC (6701 JP)</a>.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/175/110/original/2020-11-30_09-39-21.png?1606696981" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="175110"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/175/111/original/2020-11-30_09-43-17.png?1606697029" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="175111"></figure></section><p><strong><a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/7b61jl02dh0pzno/2020-11-25_12-43-55.png?dl=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TURNAROUND BUYS</a> -</strong> In the<strong> DETAIL </strong>section below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Turnaround Buys. The last Insight in this mini-series will look at Ex-Growth Sells before concluding with one '2021 High Conviction' recommendation. The first two Insights in the Series can be found at - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-four-quadrants-contrarian-buys" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45688" rel="noopener">Contrarian Buys </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-four-quadrants-contrarian-sells" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45725" rel="noopener">Contrarian Sells</a>.  </p>
</div>

FOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-

CONTRARIAN BUYS - Low Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

CONTRARIAN SELLS - High Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

TURNAROUND BUYS - High Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; low Relative Price Scores

EX-GROWTHSELLS - Low Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; high Relative Price Scores

Turnaround Buys are quite rare but tend to offer reasonable upside for relatively low risk. Examples from 2020 include Lixil (5938 JP) and NEC (6701 JP).
TURNAROUND BUYS - In the DETAIL section below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Turnaround Buys. The last Insight in this mini-series will look at Ex-Growth Sells before concluding with one '2021 High Conviction' recommendation. The first two Insights in the Series can be found at - Contrarian Buys and Contrarian Sells.  


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Turnaround Buys

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Event-Driven

<p>Travis Lundy has covered Sharp’s inclusion in the Nikkei 225 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ntt-docomo-delisting-nikkei-225-replacement-is-sharp-6753-with-a-surprise" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-end-november-japan-rebalances-how-much-is-priced-in" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. Below we examine Sharp’s long-term valuations and recent share price movements relative to peers to try and ascertain where the stock may trade to post-inclusion.</p>

Travis Lundy has covered Sharp’s inclusion in the Nikkei 225 here and here. Below we examine Sharp’s long-term valuations and recent share price movements relative to peers to try and ascertain where the stock may trade to post-inclusion.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Haier Electronics Group Co / Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Haier, NTT Doco, Tesla, Beijing Jingneng, China Biologics, HK IPO Lock-Ups

Travis Lundy

<p>With the results of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a> Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-docomo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1" rel="noopener">NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP)</a> announced yesterday, getting them to 91.46%, this triggers a fast-track change in the Nikkei 225 treatment based on a <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20200615E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rule change for constituent selection</a> announced on 15 June. </p><p>This was discussed briefly in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/surprising-ntt-docomo-tender-result-accelerates-squeezeout-great-re-allocation-nikkei-225-change" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45412" rel="noopener">Surprising NTT Docomo Tender Result Accelerates Squeezeout, Great Re-Allocation, Nikkei 225 Change</a>.</p><p>The relevant part of the rule change is shown below. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/172/461/original/Screenshot%202020-11-18%20at%202.53.16%20PM.png?1605682411" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="172461"></figure></section><p></p><p>The first time it was used was with the replacement for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-financial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:564:1" rel="noopener">Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP)</a> where the clearance of 90% made delisting a foregone conclusion because it only required the parent to ask. The same is the case here. </p><p>Today, the Nikkei Index Business Office <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20201118E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the replacement for NTT Docomo in the Nikkei 225 Index. It is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sharp-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:391:1" rel="noopener">Sharp Corp (6753 JP)</a> with a presumed par value of 50 yen. The change will be made at the close of trading on 1 December 2020 (8 trading days left). </p><p>This is surprising. Very surprising. <em><strong>And it matters a lot.</strong></em></p><p>Due to the reverse 1:10 share split of end-2017, this <em>should</em> have been a presumed par value of 500 yen. I half wonder whether they made a typo and will correct it. The other possibility is that because it happened while the stock was in the Purgatorio of the Second Section, that data simply didn't register so they ignored it. Which would be a <em>Very Bureaucratic Thing To Do</em>.</p><p>Details on the index rebalance trade below.</p>

With the results of the NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP) Tender Offer for NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) announced yesterday, getting them to 91.46%, this triggers a fast-track change in the Nikkei 225 treatment based on a rule change for constituent selection announced on 15 June. This was discussed briefly in Surprising NTT Docomo Tender Result Accelerates Squeezeout, Great Re-Allocation, Nikkei 225 Change.The relevant part of the rule change is shown below. The first time it was used was with the replacement for Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP) where the clearance of 90% made delisting a foregone conclusion because it only required the parent to ask. The same is the case here. Today, the Nikkei Index Business Office announced the replacement for NTT Docomo in the Nikkei 225 Index. It is Sharp Corp (6753 JP) with a presumed par value of 50 yen. The change will be made at the close of trading on 1 December 2020 (8 trading days left). This is surprising. Very surprising. And it matters a lot.Due to the reverse 1:10 share split of end-2017, this should have been a presumed par value of 500 yen. I half wonder whether they made a typo and will correct it. The other possibility is that because it happened while the stock was in the Purgatorio of the Second Section, that data simply didn't register so they ignored it. Which would be a Very Bureaucratic Thing To Do.Details on the index rebalance trade below.

NTT Docomo Delisting; Nikkei 225 Replacement Is SHARP (6753) - With a Surprise

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<p>The results of the JPX Nikkei 400 review have been announced. There are 32 inclusions and 27 deletions to bring the number of constituents back to 400 and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 27 November.</p><p>The index review is normally effective after the close of trading on  the second last trading day in August, but was postponed by 3 months this year because of the extension given to companies to file their annual reports and quarterly reports to 30 September owing to COVID-19.</p><p>These are the stocks that have been included and excluded from the index.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" style="text-align: center; width: 181pt;"><h3>Inclusions</h3></td>
<td colspan="2" style="text-align: center; width: 197pt;"><h3>Exclusions</h3></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Name</strong></td>
<td><strong>Code</strong></td>
<td><strong>Name</strong></td>
<td><strong>Code</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>1766.T</td>
<td>Token Corp</td>
<td>2124.T</td>
<td>Jac Recruitment Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2222.T</td>
<td>Kotobuki Spirits Co Ltd</td>
<td>2206.T</td>
<td>Ezaki Glico Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2264.T</td>
<td>Morinaga Milk Industry Co Ltd</td>
<td>2432.T</td>
<td>DeNA Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2317.T</td>
<td>Systena Corp</td>
<td>3254.T</td>
<td>Pressance Corp</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2593.T</td>
<td>Ito En Ltd</td>
<td>3668.T</td>
<td>Colopl Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2811.T</td>
<td>Kagome Co Ltd</td>
<td>4246.T</td>
<td>DaikyoNishikawa Corp</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3563.T</td>
<td>Sushiro Global Holdings Ltd</td>
<td>4587.T</td>
<td>PeptiDream Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3635.T</td>
<td>Koei Tecmo Holdings Co Ltd</td>
<td>4681.T</td>
<td>Resorttrust Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4189.T</td>
<td>KH Neochem Co Ltd</td>
<td>4751.T</td>
<td>CyberAgent Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4348.T</td>
<td>Infocom Corp</td>
<td>4902.T</td>
<td>Konica Minolta Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4527.T</td>
<td>Rohto Pharmaceutical Co Ltd</td>
<td>5486.T</td>
<td>Hitachi Metals Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4686.T</td>
<td>Justsystems Corp</td>
<td>5703.T</td>
<td>Nippon Light Metal Holdings Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4816.T</td>
<td>Toei Animation Co Ltd</td>
<td>5714.T</td>
<td>DOWA Holdings Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4921.T</td>
<td>Fancl Corp</td>
<td>5975.T</td>
<td>Topre Corp</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5105.T</td>
<td>Toyo Tire Corp</td>
<td>6269.T</td>
<td>Modec Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5631.T</td>
<td>Japan Steel Works Ltd</td>
<td>6324.T</td>
<td>Harmonic Drive Systems Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5857.T</td>
<td>Asahi Holdings Inc</td>
<td>6463.T</td>
<td>TPR Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6005.T</td>
<td>Miura Co Ltd</td>
<td>6473.T</td>
<td>Jtekt Corp</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6035.T</td>
<td>IR Japan Holdings Ltd</td>
<td>6641.T</td>
<td>Nissin Electric Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6134.T</td>
<td>Fuji Corp (Aichi)</td>
<td>6755.T</td>
<td>Fujitsu General Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6465.T</td>
<td>Hoshizaki Corp</td>
<td>6806.T</td>
<td>Hirose Electric Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6532.T</td>
<td>BayCurrent Consulting Inc</td>
<td>7012.T</td>
<td>Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6670.T</td>
<td>MCJ Co Ltd</td>
<td>7606.T</td>
<td>United Arrows Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6753.T</td>
<td>Sharp Corp</td>
<td>7867.T</td>
<td>Tomy Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6754.T</td>
<td>Anritsu Corp</td>
<td>8227.T</td>
<td>Shimamura Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>8354.T</td>
<td>Fukuoka Financial Group Inc</td>
<td>8628.T</td>
<td>Matsui Securities Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>8572.T</td>
<td>Acom Co Ltd</td>
<td>9404.T</td>
<td>Nippon Television Holdings Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9044.T</td>
<td>Nankai Electric Railway Co Ltd</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9142.T</td>
<td>Kyushu Railway Co</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9504.T</td>
<td>Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9509.T</td>
<td>Hokkaido Electric Power Co Inc</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9603.T</td>
<td>H.I.S. Co Ltd</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

The results of the JPX Nikkei 400 review have been announced. There are 32 inclusions and 27 deletions to bring the number of constituents back to 400 and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 27 November.The index review is normally effective after the close of trading on  the second last trading day in August, but was postponed by 3 months this year because of the extension given to companies to file their annual reports and quarterly reports to 30 September owing to COVID-19.These are the stocks that have been included and excluded from the index.








Inclusions
Exclusions


Name
Code
Name
Code


1766.T
Token Corp
2124.T
Jac Recruitment Co Ltd


2222.T
Kotobuki Spirits Co Ltd
2206.T
Ezaki Glico Co Ltd


2264.T
Morinaga Milk Industry Co Ltd
2432.T
DeNA Co Ltd


2317.T
Systena Corp
3254.T
Pressance Corp


2593.T
Ito En Ltd
3668.T
Colopl Inc


2811.T
Kagome Co Ltd
4246.T
DaikyoNishikawa Corp


3563.T
Sushiro Global Holdings Ltd
4587.T
PeptiDream Inc


3635.T
Koei Tecmo Holdings Co Ltd
4681.T
Resorttrust Inc


4189.T
KH Neochem Co Ltd
4751.T
CyberAgent Inc


4348.T
Infocom Corp
4902.T
Konica Minolta Inc


4527.T
Rohto Pharmaceutical Co Ltd
5486.T
Hitachi Metals Ltd


4686.T
Justsystems Corp
5703.T
Nippon Light Metal Holdings Co Ltd


4816.T
Toei Animation Co Ltd
5714.T
DOWA Holdings Co Ltd


4921.T
Fancl Corp
5975.T
Topre Corp


5105.T
Toyo Tire Corp
6269.T
Modec Inc


5631.T
Japan Steel Works Ltd
6324.T
Harmonic Drive Systems Inc


5857.T
Asahi Holdings Inc
6463.T
TPR Co Ltd


6005.T
Miura Co Ltd
6473.T
Jtekt Corp


6035.T
IR Japan Holdings Ltd
6641.T
Nissin Electric Co Ltd


6134.T
Fuji Corp (Aichi)
6755.T
Fujitsu General Ltd


6465.T
Hoshizaki Corp
6806.T
Hirose Electric Co Ltd


6532.T
BayCurrent Consulting Inc
7012.T
Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd


6670.T
MCJ Co Ltd
7606.T
United Arrows Ltd


6753.T
Sharp Corp
7867.T
Tomy Co Ltd


6754.T
Anritsu Corp
8227.T
Shimamura Co Ltd


8354.T
Fukuoka Financial Group Inc
8628.T
Matsui Securities Co Ltd


8572.T
Acom Co Ltd
9404.T
Nippon Television Holdings Inc


9044.T
Nankai Electric Railway Co Ltd




9142.T
Kyushu Railway Co




9504.T
Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc




9509.T
Hokkaido Electric Power Co Inc




9603.T
H.I.S. Co Ltd






JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Better Late Than Never (32 Adds; 27 Deletes)

Japan

Sharp Corporation manufactures consumer and industrial electronics. The Company's products include audio-visual and communication equipment such as LCD TVs and mobile phones, home appliances, and electronic components including solar cells and integrated circuits.  Sharp operates its business worldwide.

Price Gauge
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Sharp Corp (6753 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Turnaround Buys

Turnaround Buys are quite rare but tend to offer reasonable upside for relatively low risk. Examples from 2020 include Lixil (5938 JP) and NEC...

Campbell Gunn

Sharp – Valuing the Back End

We examine Sharp’s long-term valuations and recent share price movements relative to peers to try and ascertain where the stock may trade to post...

Mio Kato

Last Week in Event SPACE: Haier, NTT Doco, Tesla, Beijing Jingneng, China Biologics, HK IPO Lock-Ups

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

NTT Docomo Delisting; Nikkei 225 Replacement Is SHARP (6753) - With a Surprise

In Sharp (6753) Nikkei has offered an unsurprising replacement for Docomo in the Nikkei 225, but the terms are unexpected (and a trifle...

Travis Lundy

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Better Late Than Never (32 Adds; 27 Deletes)

There are 32 inclusions and 27 exclusions from the JPX Nikkei 400. The changes will be effective after the close of trading on 27 November and the...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)