Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>On March 2 we discussed how the pullback in global equities was in full swing as Europe/UK indexes displayed 4.5-month uptrend breaks, joining the pullback in the MSCI ACWI.</li>
<li>At the time, we expected this pullback in the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) to move down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low) or $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>ACWI-US broke below $86 and is approaching $84. $84 will be an important support level to monitor, but if it breaks, the $75-77 level is still firmly in the cards.</li>
</ul>


On March 2 we discussed how the pullback in global equities was in full swing as Europe/UK indexes displayed 4.5-month uptrend breaks, joining the pullback in the MSCI ACWI.
At the time, we expected this pullback in the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) to move down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low) or $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
ACWI-US broke below $86 and is approaching $84. $84 will be an important support level to monitor, but if it breaks, the $75-77 level is still firmly in the cards.


Global Pullback Continues; Focus on Defensives: Buys in Staples, Utilities, Precious Metals Miners

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
 China’s PBoC injected a whopping RMB 3 trillion (US$450 billion) into money markets through December and January</li>
<li>Latest data show sharp fall-off in Chinese liquidity from late-February. Nonetheless, it is hard to extrapolate much from this. 2023 still looks to be a year of much more liquidity</li>
<li>The close connection between the PBoC and Chinese business points to a stronger Chinese and World economy in the second half of 2023. Buy cyclicals? 
</li>
</ul>



 China’s PBoC injected a whopping RMB 3 trillion (US$450 billion) into money markets through December and January
Latest data show sharp fall-off in Chinese liquidity from late-February. Nonetheless, it is hard to extrapolate much from this. 2023 still looks to be a year of much more liquidity
The close connection between the PBoC and Chinese business points to a stronger Chinese and World economy in the second half of 2023. Buy cyclicals? 



Global Liquidity – Is China Squeezing Or Easing Liquidity Again?

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We welcome the regulators' formalization of financial asset classifications. This will gradually remove regulatory arbitrage and pave the way for further bank reintermediation.</li>
<li>The new rules will likely have limited impacts on bond holdings that have active secondary markets, but illiquid debt investment plans will come under more intense regulatory and auditor scrutiny.</li>
<li>We see an impact of 10-15bp on the listed banks' reported NPL ratios. That said, a handful of banks may be at risk of capital shortages if the environment worsens. </li>
</ul>


We welcome the regulators' formalization of financial asset classifications. This will gradually remove regulatory arbitrage and pave the way for further bank reintermediation.
The new rules will likely have limited impacts on bond holdings that have active secondary markets, but illiquid debt investment plans will come under more intense regulatory and auditor scrutiny.
We see an impact of 10-15bp on the listed banks' reported NPL ratios. That said, a handful of banks may be at risk of capital shortages if the environment worsens. 


Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Markets will likely look at Jan's TSF data in a favorable light. The record loan growth was particularly encouraging, despite being boosted by a degree of bank credit reintermediation.</li>
<li>Corporate lending was robust, driven concurrently by a surge in long-term loans and working capital financing. However, the outlook for mortgages remains grim. Consumers appear unmoved by falling home prices.</li>
<li>We believe the PBOC's easing bias will continue. A cut in the 5-year LPR may be the next sensible move. RRR cuts, while possible in 2023, may cause longer-term pain.</li>
</ul>


Markets will likely look at Jan's TSF data in a favorable light. The record loan growth was particularly encouraging, despite being boosted by a degree of bank credit reintermediation.
Corporate lending was robust, driven concurrently by a surge in long-term loans and working capital financing. However, the outlook for mortgages remains grim. Consumers appear unmoved by falling home prices.
We believe the PBOC's easing bias will continue. A cut in the 5-year LPR may be the next sensible move. RRR cuts, while possible in 2023, may cause longer-term pain.


China Macro: A Blowout Month for New Loans, but Consumers Remain Timid

<ul>
<li>The slightly weaker-than-expected inflation numbers for Jan represent a delay and not a detour from the broader reopening story. Investors will likely benefit from improved visibility in the months ahead. </li>
<li>The recovery in the PPI has been dragged by upward sticky factory gate prices for smaller producers downstream. This is consistent with our analysis of the Jan PMI.</li>
<li>A sustained improvement in consumer activity will likely drive PPI up to 0% and CPI to 2.5% by March.</li>
</ul>


The slightly weaker-than-expected inflation numbers for Jan represent a delay and not a detour from the broader reopening story. Investors will likely benefit from improved visibility in the months ahead. 
The recovery in the PPI has been dragged by upward sticky factory gate prices for smaller producers downstream. This is consistent with our analysis of the Jan PMI.
A sustained improvement in consumer activity will likely drive PPI up to 0% and CPI to 2.5% by March.


China Macro: Jan CPI / PPI | Much Better Visibility Ahead

China

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The index was developed on December 19, 1990 with a base value of 100. 

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Global Pullback Continues; Focus on Defensives: Buys in Staples, Utilities, Precious Metals Miners

Europe/UK STOXX Europe 50/FTSE 100 with concerning breakdowns below 3800 and 7700, joining the pullback that had already started in the MSCI ACWI....

Vermilion Research

Global Liquidity – Is China Squeezing Or Easing Liquidity Again?

China’s PBoC injected a whopping RMB3tr into money markets in December and January. Close connection between liquidity and business points to a...

Michael J. Howell

Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

New asset classification rules have officially been announced. We see this as a long-term positive for the sector as regulators continue to bring...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China Macro: A Blowout Month for New Loans, but Consumers Remain Timid

New loans totaled a whopping CNY4.9 trillion in Jan. Overall, the surge in corporate lending was solid. The outlook is much grimmer for mortgages....

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China Macro: Jan CPI / PPI | Much Better Visibility Ahead

Inflation data for Jan, while slightly softer than expected, should be encouraging in that we've not had such high visibility for a long time in...

Stanley Tsai, CFA