Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We’ll start today’s 5 things with a look at the central bank outlook for in 2024, then we’ll address the troubles for OPEC.</li><li>We move over to talk about China and afterwards Ukraine for some geopolitics.</li><li>Finally, we’ll end this year’s last 5 things with a crypto outlook.</li></ul>

We’ll start today’s 5 things with a look at the central bank outlook for in 2024, then we’ll address the troubles for OPEC.We move over to talk about China and afterwards Ukraine for some geopolitics.Finally, we’ll end this year’s last 5 things with a crypto outlook.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.</li><li>But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?</li><li>We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.</li></ul>

Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Now that the pandemic has passed, Yiling’s performance has to face a sharp decline due to the high base before, but in our view, the situation is not so bad.  </li>
<li>According to the management,sales of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular products would gradually increase to make up for the sales decline of Lianhua Qingwen, which would still be higher than pre-pandemic level.</li>
<li>About 15-20% performance growth is still reachable in the future. PE of 20-30 is a reasonable range for Yiling. Being included in CSI 300 Index helps to improve the liquidity.</li>
</ul>


Now that the pandemic has passed, Yiling’s performance has to face a sharp decline due to the high base before, but in our view, the situation is not so bad.  
According to the management,sales of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular products would gradually increase to make up for the sales decline of Lianhua Qingwen, which would still be higher than pre-pandemic level.
About 15-20% performance growth is still reachable in the future. PE of 20-30 is a reasonable range for Yiling. Being included in CSI 300 Index helps to improve the liquidity.


Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical (002603.CH) - Valuation Rebound Is Worth Looking Forward To

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Hygon Information Technology C / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Local indices in China including the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index</a> will rebalance at the close tomorrow.</li>
<li>There are many changes for the indices and there are stocks that are adds and/or deletes from multiple indices which results in cumulative or offsetting flows.</li>
<li>We estimate turnover at the close tomorrow in China will be around US$7.5bn with big impact on a lot of stocks.</li>
</ul>


Local indices in China including the CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, STAR50 Index and SSE50 Index will rebalance at the close tomorrow.
There are many changes for the indices and there are stocks that are adds and/or deletes from multiple indices which results in cumulative or offsetting flows.
We estimate turnover at the close tomorrow in China will be around US$7.5bn with big impact on a lot of stocks.


China: Consolidated Flows at the Close Tomorrow

<ul>
<li>The announcement of the inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uber-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:430:1" rel="noopener">Uber Technologies (UBER US)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> was a big one last week. There were announcements for some other indices too.</li>
<li>There are many indices in China that will be rebalanced at the close on Friday, the biggest being the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kraneshares-csi-china-internet-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28208:1" rel="noopener">KWEB US</a>.</li>
<li>Relatively quiet in ETF world with net inflows to China focused ETFs and net outflows for Japan.</li>
</ul>


The announcement of the inclusion of Uber Technologies (UBER US) in the S&amp;P 500 INDEX was a big one last week. There were announcements for some other indices too.
There are many indices in China that will be rebalanced at the close on Friday, the biggest being the CSI 300, CSI 500, STAR50, SSE50 and KWEB US.
Relatively quiet in ETF world with net inflows to China focused ETFs and net outflows for Japan.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KWEB, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, SET50, Chips, Denso, SPX

China

The CSI 300 Index is a free-float weighted index that consists of 300 A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai or Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. Index has a base level of 1000 on 12/31/2004. * Due to our agreement with CSI, shares in the index is restricted, please visit SSIS<go> for more information and access. This ticker holds prices fed from Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)

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Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)

Five Things We Watch For In 2024

The thing to watch is probably employment numbers and once the labor markets start turning bad, expect CBs to cut in a hurry (especially if it is...

Steno Research

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Let’s run through each asset class to see where to put your eggs if a bull-steepening of the yield curve continues into 2024.

Steno Research

Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical (002603.CH) - Valuation Rebound Is Worth Looking Forward To

Yiling’s performance faces a sharp decline without the pandemic catalyst, but the fundamentals are not that bad. Valuation is expected to bounce...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China: Consolidated Flows at the Close Tomorrow

Local indices in China rebalance tomorrow and we estimate passives will need to trade around CNY 54bn (US$7.5bn). There will be big impact on some...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KWEB, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, SET50, Chips, Denso, SPX

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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