Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hi everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning / sentiment overview, which will be delivered to you right as firefighters have hopefully put out the fire at the old exchange building in Copenhagen..</li><li>Markets have started the week off where they left last week, with the USD wrecking ball continuing to prevail, posing headwinds for equity and fixed income markets as Fed pricing has more or less turned upside down lately.</li><li>We generally positioned for this repricing of USD fixed income, but were caught wrongfooted in a few trades along the way admittedly.</li></ul>

Hi everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning / sentiment overview, which will be delivered to you right as firefighters have hopefully put out the fire at the old exchange building in Copenhagen..Markets have started the week off where they left last week, with the USD wrecking ball continuing to prevail, posing headwinds for equity and fixed income markets as Fed pricing has more or less turned upside down lately.We generally positioned for this repricing of USD fixed income, but were caught wrongfooted in a few trades along the way admittedly.

Positioning Watch – Volatility Is Back, but Markets Still Lean into USD Duration.. God Knows Why..

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering-A / Event-Driven

Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering-A

<ul>
<li>With 85% of the review period complete, we see 11 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> in June.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 1.2% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.3bn (US$1bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes despite large flows from the National Team into ETFs tracking the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>. That support for the potential deletes will reverse.</li>
</ul>


With 85% of the review period complete, we see 11 changes for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) in June.
We estimate one-way turnover of 1.2% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.3bn (US$1bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes despite large flows from the National Team into ETFs tracking the CSI 300 Index. That support for the potential deletes will reverse.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Despite ETF Inflows

<ul>
<li>There were a few rebalance announcements in the last week and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and STAR100 Index rebalances were implemented at the close on Friday.</li>
<li>There are a lot of rebalances that will be implemented at the close on the coming Thursday and Friday.</li>
<li>Another big week of inflows for onshore China ETFs with Central Huijin likely behind the big flows to ETFs tracking the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There were a few rebalance announcements in the last week and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and STAR100 Index rebalances were implemented at the close on Friday.
There are a lot of rebalances that will be implemented at the close on the coming Thursday and Friday.
Another big week of inflows for onshore China ETFs with Central Huijin likely behind the big flows to ETFs tracking the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, A50, STTF, LowVol30, Value Up

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s Great Game where we turn our attention to China.</li><li>The Communist Party is annual National People’s Congress where Premier Li Qiang (Xi’s right hand man) delivered a very noteworthy speech on the Central Committee’s financial and political plans.</li><li>Watching a speech from a Chinese politician is a very different beast from watching top US politicians address the masses.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s Great Game where we turn our attention to China.The Communist Party is annual National People’s Congress where Premier Li Qiang (Xi’s right hand man) delivered a very noteworthy speech on the Central Committee’s financial and political plans.Watching a speech from a Chinese politician is a very different beast from watching top US politicians address the masses.

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch! We have been all about the possibility of a cyclical rebound with the US economy showing great signs at the moment, and China is also potentially looking to beat the fairly bearish expectations (and why barely anyone has been net long cyclicals in all asset spaces).</li><li>This leaves markets with a great divergence, as Europe is yet to show the same signs of momentum, and inflation expectations (between USD and EUR) are also starting to diverge, but positioning has not followed accordingly.</li><li>Let’s rerun our current trades to kick things off: Equities: Long Materials and Long Korea (as a China proxy).</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch! We have been all about the possibility of a cyclical rebound with the US economy showing great signs at the moment, and China is also potentially looking to beat the fairly bearish expectations (and why barely anyone has been net long cyclicals in all asset spaces).This leaves markets with a great divergence, as Europe is yet to show the same signs of momentum, and inflation expectations (between USD and EUR) are also starting to diverge, but positioning has not followed accordingly.Let’s rerun our current trades to kick things off: Equities: Long Materials and Long Korea (as a China proxy).

Positioning Watch – Commodities Are Finally Moving

China

The CSI 300 Index is a free-float weighted index that consists of 300 A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai or Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. Index has a base level of 1000 on 12/31/2004. * Due to our agreement with CSI, shares in the index is restricted, please visit SSIS<go> for more information and access. This ticker holds prices fed from Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)

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Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)

Positioning Watch – Volatility Is Back, but Markets Still Lean into USD Duration.. God Knows Why..

Hi everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning / sentiment overview, which will be delivered to you right as firefighters have hopefully...

Steno Research

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Despite ETF Inflows

The adds have outperformed the deleted by over 10% in the last month. Coming up to the end of the review period, there could be further positioning.

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, A50, STTF, LowVol30, Value Up

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

3 Take-Aways from Li Qiang’s Speech

Welcome to this week’s Great Game where we turn our attention to China. The Communist Party is annual National People’s Congress where Premier Li...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Commodities Are Finally Moving

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch!We have been all about the possibility of a cyclical rebound with the US economy...

Steno Research

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52-week Range

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Dividend (Yield)