HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Deshengtang Pharmaceutical Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Due to COVID-19, the consumption pattern of customers has changed.The rapid development period of pharmacies is coming to an end and the industry has entered a new era of integration.</li>
<li>The essence of Deshengtang's business model is more like traditional retail offline pharmacies, relying heavily on selling drugs. The Company's healthy gross margin gives hope for an early turnaround. </li>
<li>However, no matter from which field to seek expansion, Deshengtang would encounter strong competitors.It remains to see if Deshengtang can survive in the industry rather than be acquired by competitors.</li>
</ul>


Due to COVID-19, the consumption pattern of customers has changed.The rapid development period of pharmacies is coming to an end and the industry has entered a new era of integration.
The essence of Deshengtang's business model is more like traditional retail offline pharmacies, relying heavily on selling drugs. The Company's healthy gross margin gives hope for an early turnaround. 
However, no matter from which field to seek expansion, Deshengtang would encounter strong competitors.It remains to see if Deshengtang can survive in the industry rather than be acquired by competitors.


Pre-IPO Deshengtang Pharmaceutical - Benign Development Momentum, but Still Face Some Risks

<ul>
<li>YSB's business model is closer to that of pharmaceutical distribution enterprises, who could carry out businesses similar to YSB based on huge market share/resource advantages/financial strength. YSB’s moat isn't high.</li>
<li>The business structure of “Self-operation Business + Online Marketplace” of YSB could involve certain policy risks. Given the nature of its business, YSB’s profit margin is difficult to improve significantly.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ysb-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35982:1" rel="noopener">YSB Inc (YSB HK)</a>’s revenue scale could encounter bottlenecks after reaching a certain stage of growth. The valuation of YSB should be lower than that of traditional pharmaceutical distribution enterprises.</li>
</ul>


YSB's business model is closer to that of pharmaceutical distribution enterprises, who could carry out businesses similar to YSB based on huge market share/resource advantages/financial strength. YSB’s moat isn't high.
The business structure of “Self-operation Business + Online Marketplace” of YSB could involve certain policy risks. Given the nature of its business, YSB’s profit margin is difficult to improve significantly.

YSB Inc (YSB HK)’s revenue scale could encounter bottlenecks after reaching a certain stage of growth. The valuation of YSB should be lower than that of traditional pharmaceutical distribution enterprises.


Pre IPO YSB Inc (PHIP Updates) - Low Margins Are Inevitable; Valuation Upside Potential Is Limited

Equity Bottom-Up

China Resources Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2022 was a turning point for China Resources Pharmaceutical (CRP), because performance of core subsidiaries saw a historic improvement.After China reopens, CRP is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2023.</li>
<li>CRP’s development history indicates that its current scale/industry position are mainly due to continuous M&amp;A based on SOE resource advantages/background, but holding platform companies have valuation discounts in secondary market.</li>
<li>Different business models lead to different valuation logic. But Sinopharm/SH Pharma/CRP all enjoy SOE background dividends+valuation system with Chinese characteristics. If investors mainly focus on industry trend, they can all be invested.  </li>
</ul>


2022 was a turning point for China Resources Pharmaceutical (CRP), because performance of core subsidiaries saw a historic improvement.After China reopens, CRP is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2023.
CRP’s development history indicates that its current scale/industry position are mainly due to continuous M&amp;A based on SOE resource advantages/background, but holding platform companies have valuation discounts in secondary market.
Different business models lead to different valuation logic. But Sinopharm/SH Pharma/CRP all enjoy SOE background dividends+valuation system with Chinese characteristics. If investors mainly focus on industry trend, they can all be invested.  


China Resources Pharmaceutical (3320.HK) - Growth Recovery and SOE Advantages Improve the Outlook

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Different from peers whose pharmaceutical assets are scattered in different listed companies, all assets/resources of SH Pharma are integrated within the Company. The intrinsic value of this model is greater.</li>
<li>SH Pharma is in a traditional industry, facing weak profitability and negative policy impacts, Thus, the Company lacks attractiveness and imagination space for investors, leading to long-term undervaluation. </li>
<li>Considering the transformation to more high-margin businesses, SH Pharma’s performance/profitability would improve. Since China hopes to establish a valuation system with Chinese characteristics, there’s valuation repair opportunity for SH Pharma.</li>
</ul>


Different from peers whose pharmaceutical assets are scattered in different listed companies, all assets/resources of SH Pharma are integrated within the Company. The intrinsic value of this model is greater.
SH Pharma is in a traditional industry, facing weak profitability and negative policy impacts, Thus, the Company lacks attractiveness and imagination space for investors, leading to long-term undervaluation. 
Considering the transformation to more high-margin businesses, SH Pharma’s performance/profitability would improve. Since China hopes to establish a valuation system with Chinese characteristics, there’s valuation repair opportunity for SH Pharma.


Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding (601607.CH/2607.HK) - The Situation of Undervaluation Would Change

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>It was a busy week with index rebalance implementations and announcements of index changes.</li>
<li>The coming week has the KOSPI200 and KOSDAQ150 rebalancing on Thursday and a bunch of onshore China indices rebalancing on Friday.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to China ETFs during the week while the largest inflows went to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK)</a> ETF.</li>
</ul>


It was a busy week with index rebalance implementations and announcements of index changes.
The coming week has the KOSPI200 and KOSDAQ150 rebalancing on Thursday and a bunch of onshore China indices rebalancing on Friday.
There were big inflows to China ETFs during the week while the largest inflows went to the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK) ETF.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300/500, Chinext, China Semi Chips, Nifty Next50, SET50, REMX

China

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Co., Ltd. manufactures, retails, and wholesales a variety of pharmaceuticals including biopharmaceuticals, chemical and Chinese traditional medicines, and healthcare products. The Company also invests in new medicine development and provides related services.

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding (2607 HK)

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Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding (2607 HK)

Pre-IPO Deshengtang Pharmaceutical - Benign Development Momentum, but Still Face Some Risks

Deshengtang has hope for an early turnaround if benign development momentum could continue. But its business model does not have a high moat, so...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre IPO YSB Inc (PHIP Updates) - Low Margins Are Inevitable; Valuation Upside Potential Is Limited

YSB's business doesn't have high moat.It mainly compete for the small market not covered by SOE pharmaceutical distributors,with limited growth...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Resources Pharmaceutical (3320.HK) - Growth Recovery and SOE Advantages Improve the Outlook

China Resources Pharmaceutical is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2023. Its SOE resource advantage/background are in line with China's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding (601607.CH/2607.HK) - The Situation of Undervaluation Would Change

SH Pharma is not attractive due to low profitability/negative policies, but its business transformation will pay off. Since China hopes to drive up...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300/500, Chinext, China Semi Chips, Nifty Next50, SET50, REMX

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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