Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)</li>
<li>As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.
Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)
As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners


Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Beijing Yuanxin Technology Group Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Based on the business analysis, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-yuanxin-technology-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34685:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Yuanxin Technology Group Co Ltd (1865453D CH)</a> is more of a traditional offline chain drugstores than a healthcare technology company.</li>
<li>Yuanxin has been suffering from loss for years. With a gross margin of lower than 10%, it's going to be tough to turn a profit, leading to concerns on survival. </li>
<li>Due to the fierce competition in each of its businesses, homogeneous business model, weak financial position, lack of high moat, policy risks, etc., we are conservative about the Company’s outlook.</li>
</ul>


Based on the business analysis, Beijing Yuanxin Technology Group Co Ltd (1865453D CH) is more of a traditional offline chain drugstores than a healthcare technology company.
Yuanxin has been suffering from loss for years. With a gross margin of lower than 10%, it's going to be tough to turn a profit, leading to concerns on survival. 
Due to the fierce competition in each of its businesses, homogeneous business model, weak financial position, lack of high moat, policy risks, etc., we are conservative about the Company’s outlook.


Pre-IPO Beijing Yuanxin Technology Group - Conservative About the Outlook

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>DRGs will become the main form of medical insurance payment, which will bring huge impact on all parties (hospitals, physicians, patients, companies) and fundamentally change the existing medical environment.</li>
<li>DRGs would force hospitals/doctors to cure patients within specified time and amount of cost, which would promote the improvement of technology with differentiated innovation that truly drives clinical benefits.</li>
<li>Overall, investors are advised to pay attention to related opportunities but also prepare for the potential risks in advance.</li>
</ul>


DRGs will become the main form of medical insurance payment, which will bring huge impact on all parties (hospitals, physicians, patients, companies) and fundamentally change the existing medical environment.
DRGs would force hospitals/doctors to cure patients within specified time and amount of cost, which would promote the improvement of technology with differentiated innovation that truly drives clinical benefits.
Overall, investors are advised to pay attention to related opportunities but also prepare for the potential risks in advance.


The Impact of DRGs Policy on China Medical System

Industry viewpoints:<ul>
<li>Considering the importance of blood products, the 14th Five-Year Plan will accelerate the construction of plasma stations in China so as to achieve the self-sufficiency in blood products.</li>
<li>Public health is the focus of the 14th Five-Year Plan for medical reform. Among them, due to the strong demand from the downstream, the medical IT industry is expected to usher in a faster development.</li>
<li>The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 would accelerate Chinese consumers' awareness and attention of immunonutrition products, such as the probiotics products.</li>
</ul>Company news:News about the updated progress on drugs and new cooperation agreements of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innocare-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28355:1" rel="noopener">InnoCare Pharma Ltd (9969 HK) </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/remegen-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29191:1" rel="noopener">Remegen Co Ltd (9995 HK)</a>.Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 2.61%, while CSI 300 increased 0.50% over the same period of timeRisk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Industry viewpoints:
Considering the importance of blood products, the 14th Five-Year Plan will accelerate the construction of plasma stations in China so as to achieve the self-sufficiency in blood products.
Public health is the focus of the 14th Five-Year Plan for medical reform. Among them, due to the strong demand from the downstream, the medical IT industry is expected to usher in a faster development.
The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 would accelerate Chinese consumers' awareness and attention of immunonutrition products, such as the probiotics products.
Company news:News about the updated progress on drugs and new cooperation agreements of Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH), InnoCare Pharma Ltd (9969 HK) and Remegen Co Ltd (9995 HK).Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 2.61%, while CSI 300 increased 0.50% over the same period of timeRisk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

The big data and AI solutions provider for healthcare sector in China, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yidu-tech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29245:1" rel="noopener">Yidu Tech Inc (2158 HK)</a>  has set the terms for its IPO. The company was ranked no. 1 in terms of revenue among all healthcare big data solution providers in China in 2019.China is the world’s second largest healthcare market, and the country has been increasingly informatizing the healthcare system in order to improve the efficiency as well as close the huge healthcare resource gap to meet emerging demands for high quality holistic health management.The company plans to issue 156.5m shares at an indicative IPO price range of HK$23.5-26.5 per share, and at the midpoint of the IPO price range of HK$24.90 per share, Yidu Tech will raise gross proceeds of US$503m (HK$3.9bn).In our previous insights on the company’s IPO, we examined the company’s business model, segments, revenues and profitability. In this insight, we examine the company’s valuation.

The big data and AI solutions provider for healthcare sector in China, Yidu Tech Inc (2158 HK)  has set the terms for its IPO. The company was ranked no. 1 in terms of revenue among all healthcare big data solution providers in China in 2019.China is the world’s second largest healthcare market, and the country has been increasingly informatizing the healthcare system in order to improve the efficiency as well as close the huge healthcare resource gap to meet emerging demands for high quality holistic health management.The company plans to issue 156.5m shares at an indicative IPO price range of HK$23.5-26.5 per share, and at the midpoint of the IPO price range of HK$24.90 per share, Yidu Tech will raise gross proceeds of US$503m (HK$3.9bn).In our previous insights on the company’s IPO, we examined the company’s business model, segments, revenues and profitability. In this insight, we examine the company’s valuation.

Yidu Tech IPO Valuation: Attractive at the Low-End but Superior Growth Profile Justifies the Premium

China

Winning Health Technology Group Co., Ltd. develops and sells medical software, and provides technology supporting services and comprehensive information technology solutions to the health care industry.

Winning Health Technology Group Co., Ltd. A (300253 CH)

Winning Health Technology Group Co., Ltd. A

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Winning Health Technology Group Co., Ltd. A (300253 CH)

Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

$ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends. Despite this bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to...

Vermilion Research

Pre-IPO Beijing Yuanxin Technology Group - Conservative About the Outlook

Yuanxin is more of a traditional offline drugstores than a healthcare technology company. The fierce competition/homogeneous business model/weak...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The Impact of DRGs Policy on China Medical System

An important remaining piece of China healthcare reform is DRGs, which will fundamentally change the existing medical environment. Investors need...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (July.16)

The article mainly analyzed China's plan to accelerate the construction of plasma stations, promising outlook of medical IT industry...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Yidu Tech IPO Valuation: Attractive at the Low-End but Superior Growth Profile Justifies the Premium

The big data and AI solutions provider for healthcare sector in China, Yidu Tech has set the terms for its IPO and in this insight, we examine Yidu...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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