Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period for the December rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 December.</li>
<li>There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 13.67% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.53bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed over the last 6 months but have given up some of the gains recently as market turned volatile. Expect outperformance as the review period ends.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the end of the review period for the December rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 December.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 13.67% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.53bn.
The potential adds have outperformed over the last 6 months but have given up some of the gains recently as market turned volatile. Expect outperformance as the review period ends.


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Positioned for Outperformance

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Junshi’s fatal flaw is not that it is still suffering loss, or that its founders have no medical background, but that the Company is very short of money.</li>
<li>Considering the gloomy prospects of etesevimab/VV116, uncertainties in toripalimab and other late-stage candidates, we remain conservative about Junshi’s commercialization outlook. Junshi's higher valuation than Innovent is not justified.</li>
<li>Together with unfriendly macro environment, we don’t think heavy investment in R&amp;D/MRCT/commercial development could bring high return as expected.Investors need to be rational about Junshi's RMB4 billion private placement plan.</li>
</ul>


Junshi’s fatal flaw is not that it is still suffering loss, or that its founders have no medical background, but that the Company is very short of money.
Considering the gloomy prospects of etesevimab/VV116, uncertainties in toripalimab and other late-stage candidates, we remain conservative about Junshi’s commercialization outlook. Junshi's higher valuation than Innovent is not justified.
Together with unfriendly macro environment, we don’t think heavy investment in R&amp;D/MRCT/commercial development could bring high return as expected.Investors need to be rational about Junshi's RMB4 billion private placement plan.


Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Placement- Junshi Is Having a Hard Time, with Lower than Expected Returns

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-junshi-bioscience-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27760:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK)'s</a> oncology drug candidate toripalimab marketing application is currently under priority review by the FDA, with a target action date of April 30, 2022.</li>
<li>However, FDA may reject toripalimab application, as it is predominantly based on China clinical trial data. Toripalimab may also face delay in FDA decision due to delayed regulatory inspection.</li>
<li>PD-1 drug market in the U.S. is intensely competitive, making the commercialization prospect of a new drug quite difficult. Toripalimab reported muted performance in China due to pricing headwind.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK)'s oncology drug candidate toripalimab marketing application is currently under priority review by the FDA, with a target action date of April 30, 2022.
However, FDA may reject toripalimab application, as it is predominantly based on China clinical trial data. Toripalimab may also face delay in FDA decision due to delayed regulatory inspection.
PD-1 drug market in the U.S. is intensely competitive, making the commercialization prospect of a new drug quite difficult. Toripalimab reported muted performance in China due to pricing headwind.


Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK): Uncertainties Prevailing Ahead of First U.S. Drug Approval

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-junshi-bioscience-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27760:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK)</a> announced that it has terminated its PD-1 commercialization partnership with AstraZeneca. Lower-than-expected sales performance is seen as the key reason.</li>
<li>Junshi's commercialization team is the weakest among the domestic Top Four.As the FDA's attitude may have changed, the logic of exporting innovative domestic drugs to foreign markets could be shaken.</li>
<li>Given the poor financing environment,it's challenging for Junshi to afford large investment in R&amp;D and licensing deals by just relying on cash in hand and cashflow generating from commercialized products.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK) announced that it has terminated its PD-1 commercialization partnership with AstraZeneca. Lower-than-expected sales performance is seen as the key reason.
Junshi's commercialization team is the weakest among the domestic Top Four.As the FDA's attitude may have changed, the logic of exporting innovative domestic drugs to foreign markets could be shaken.
Given the poor financing environment,it's challenging for Junshi to afford large investment in R&amp;D and licensing deals by just relying on cash in hand and cashflow generating from commercialized products.


Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877.HK/688180.CH) - Behind the “break Up” with AstraZeneca

<p>Last month, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-junshi-bioscience-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31070:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (688180 CH)</a> released the performance announcement in 2020. Junshi is expected to achieve the revenue in 2020 of RMB1.595 billion, up 105.77% YoY. The Company's net loss attributed to shareholders could reach RMB1.672 billion, up 123.8% YoY. Meanwhile, the R&amp;D expenses are expected to reach RMB1.824 billion in 2020, up 92.79% YoY, which even exceeded the total revenue in 2020. It is also worth mentioning that the moment of glory of Junshi seems to be when it was listed on the SSE STAR Market in July 2020, with the market value of about RMB150 billion, and then its share price went all the way down to hit the bottom in December 2020 at RMB 64.8/share. On March 19, 2021, Junshi’s market value was RMB79 billion, down about 50% since July 2020. So could Junshi turn things around?</p>

Last month, Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (688180 CH) released the performance announcement in 2020. Junshi is expected to achieve the revenue in 2020 of RMB1.595 billion, up 105.77% YoY. The Company's net loss attributed to shareholders could reach RMB1.672 billion, up 123.8% YoY. Meanwhile, the R&amp;D expenses are expected to reach RMB1.824 billion in 2020, up 92.79% YoY, which even exceeded the total revenue in 2020. It is also worth mentioning that the moment of glory of Junshi seems to be when it was listed on the SSE STAR Market in July 2020, with the market value of about RMB150 billion, and then its share price went all the way down to hit the bottom in December 2020 at RMB 64.8/share. On March 19, 2021, Junshi’s market value was RMB79 billion, down about 50% since July 2020. So could Junshi turn things around?

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience - Here Are the Challenges

China

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co., Ltd. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops and sells small molecule drugs, antibody drug conjugates, and other products. Shanghai Junshi Biosciences markets its products worldwide.

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Shanghai Junshi Biosciences (688180 CH)

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Positioned for Outperformance

There could be 50 changes to the index in December. We estimate a one-way turnover of 13.67% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade...

Brian Freitas

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Placement- Junshi Is Having a Hard Time, with Lower than Expected Returns

Junshi's Achilles heel is lack of cash and is in difficult time. PD-1/COVID-19 products can't relieve cashflow pressure.The uncertain outlook/macro...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK): Uncertainties Prevailing Ahead of First U.S. Drug Approval

Going by the FDA’s recent action, Junshi Bioscience’s toripalimab has a chance to get rejected by the FDA. It may miss the approval timeline....

Tina Banerjee

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877.HK/688180.CH) - Behind the “break Up” with AstraZeneca

The insight analyzed Junshi in terms of the potential reasons behind the termination of PD-1 commercialization partnership with AstraZeneca, the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience - Here Are the Challenges

The article analyzed the concerns and challenges that Junshi has to face in terms of PD-1, COVID-19 antibody drug, other products in the pipeline...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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