HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>1. Industry viewpoints:</strong></p><ul>
<li>Recently, there is news that insulin could be included in the volume-based purchase (VBP).</li>
<li>With the continuous improvement of the innovation capability of domestic pharmaceutical enterprises and the gradual recognition by foreign enterprises, "going global" has gradually become a common way in the domestic pharmaceutical industry.</li>
<li>As the residents' medical expenses continue to increase, commercial health insurance has become an important part to relieve the pressure of medical insurance fund.</li>
</ul><p><strong>2. Company news:</strong></p><p style="text-align: start;">News about the new agreement and updated progress of new drugs from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphamab-oncology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28213:1" rel="noopener">Alphamab Co Ltd (9966 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luye-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:488:1" rel="noopener">Luye Pharma (2186 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/remegen-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29191:1" rel="noopener">Remegen Co Ltd (9995 HK)</a>.</p><p><strong>3. Market review:</strong></p><p style="text-align: start;">Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 3.7%, while CSI 300 decreased 2.21% over the same period of time.</p><p><strong>4. Risk disclosure:</strong></p><p style="text-align: start;">Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.</p>

1. Industry viewpoints:
Recently, there is news that insulin could be included in the volume-based purchase (VBP).
With the continuous improvement of the innovation capability of domestic pharmaceutical enterprises and the gradual recognition by foreign enterprises, "going global" has gradually become a common way in the domestic pharmaceutical industry.
As the residents' medical expenses continue to increase, commercial health insurance has become an important part to relieve the pressure of medical insurance fund.
2. Company news:News about the new agreement and updated progress of new drugs from Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), Alphamab Co Ltd (9966 HK), Luye Pharma (2186 HK) and Remegen Co Ltd (9995 HK).3. Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 3.7%, while CSI 300 decreased 2.21% over the same period of time.4. Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

Genor Biopharma Holdings  / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jhbp-cy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29201:1" rel="noopener">JHBP (Genor) (6998 HK)</a> is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on the R&amp;D and commercialization of oncology and autoimmune drugs, with a number of products in the late stage of clinical development and close to commercialization. Perhaps because of such characteristics, Genor is favored by reputable investment institutions such as Hillhouse Capital, Temasek, etc.. However, the stock price of Genor reached its peak when it was listed. It only rose in the first two days and then fell all the way. By March 9<sup>th</sup>, 2021, the closing price of Genor was HK$16.74/share, which was about 50% lower than the peak of HK$32.2/share at the beginning of listing. So, why is that?</p>

JHBP (Genor) (6998 HK) is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on the R&amp;D and commercialization of oncology and autoimmune drugs, with a number of products in the late stage of clinical development and close to commercialization. Perhaps because of such characteristics, Genor is favored by reputable investment institutions such as Hillhouse Capital, Temasek, etc.. However, the stock price of Genor reached its peak when it was listed. It only rose in the first two days and then fell all the way. By March 9th, 2021, the closing price of Genor was HK$16.74/share, which was about 50% lower than the peak of HK$32.2/share at the beginning of listing. So, why is that?

Genor Biopharma (6998.HK) - Here Is Why the Stock Price Decreased by About 50%

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<div>
<p>Spreads were mixed this week with 48 out of 100 observed pair spreads narrower and 52 wider. The big winner on the week was Financials with spreads 119bp narrower on average. Banks and Big Insurance generally narrowed. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Overall, it was a lackluster performance, and one cannot say spreads won't move wider, but at 40% discount (and an arithmetic average upside of 87% for each liquid H to reach parity with its A), this spreads <em>are</em> wide.</p>
</div>
<div>
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 211.818px;">
<p><strong>Sector</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 99.0909px;">
<p><strong>Last Week</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 136.364px;">
<p><strong>Previous Week</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.4545px;">
<p><strong>3wks Ago</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 97.2727px;">
<p><strong>4wks Ago</strong></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 211.818px;">
<p>Consumer</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 99.0909px;">
<p>-  0.14%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 136.364px;">
<p>-  1.65%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.4545px;">
<p>-  1.20%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 97.2727px;">
<p>+ 2.55%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 211.818px;">
<p>Energy</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 99.0909px;">
<p>-  0.36%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 136.364px;">
<p>+ 0.67%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.4545px;">
<p>+ 1.43%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 97.2727px;">
<p>-  1.64%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 211.818px;">
<p>Financials &amp; Real Estate</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 99.0909px;">
<p>+ 1.19%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 136.364px;">
<p>-  1.12%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.4545px;">
<p>+ 0.10%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 97.2727px;">
<p>+ 0.29%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 211.818px;">
<p>Health Care &amp; Info Tech</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 99.0909px;">
<p>-  0.54%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 136.364px;">
<p>-  2.86%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.4545px;">
<p>+ 1.45%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 97.2727px;">
<p>-  1.52%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 211.818px;">
<p>Industrials</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 99.0909px;">
<p>-  0.42%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 136.364px;">
<p>-  1.20%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.4545px;">
<p>+ 0.26%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 97.2727px;">
<p>-  0.62%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 211.818px;">
<p>Materials</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 99.0909px;">
<p>-  0.33%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 136.364px;">
<p>-  0.84%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.4545px;">
<p>+ 3.08%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 97.2727px;">
<p>-  0.57%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 211.818px;">
<p>Utilities</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 99.0909px;">
<p>-  1.25%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 136.364px;">
<p>-  0.14%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.4545px;">
<p>+ 0.99%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 97.2727px;">
<p>+ 0.25%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 211.818px;">
<p><em><strong>Sector Average</strong></em></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 99.0909px;">
<p><em><strong>-  0.26%</strong></em></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 136.364px;">
<p><em><strong>-  1.02%</strong></em></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.4545px;">
<p><em><strong>+ 0.87%</strong></em></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 97.2727px;">
<p><em><strong>-  0.18%</strong></em></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 211.818px;">
<p><strong>All Market Average</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 99.0909px;">
<p><strong>- 0.03%</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 136.364px;">
<p><strong>-  1.22%</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.4545px;">
<p><strong>+ 0.76%</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 97.2727px;">
<p><strong>-  0.33%</strong></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div>
<div></div>
</div>
<div>
<p>10-day cross-market spread volatility continues to be high at 26% annualised. This is down off highs in the low 30s a couple weeks ago, but the long-term average is quite a bit lower. </p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<hr>
<h3>The H/A Spread Market</h3>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>The past week has seen H-shares come off sharply and spreads widen reasonably dramatically. </p>
</div>
<section>
<section class="figure">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/192/678/original/Screenshot+2021-03-07+at+8.28.29+PM.png?1615120136" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="192678"></figure>
</section>
<p></p>
</section>
<div>
<p>The average discount appears not to want to tighten, still. The average spread has kept at around 40.0% for the past four weeks or so (despite that illiquidity-bump around LNY). </p>
</div>
<section>
<section class="figure">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/192/679/original/Screenshot+2021-03-07+at+8.30.27+PM.png?1615120295" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="192679"></figure>
</section>
</section>
<hr>
<div>
<h2>Last Week's Recommendations</h2>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>There were 80 recommendations last week. This was the first losing week on alpha in several. </li>
<li>The 34 short spread recommendations lost an average of 0.12%, underperforming the market as a whole (which saw the average spread widen 0.03%). That is negative alpha of 9bp after positive alpha of 48bp the previous week on 33 spreads.</li>
<li>The 46 long recommendations averaged losses of 4bp during the week, underperforming the market as a whole by 1bp (vs +46bp outperformance the previous week). The combined total package was up -0.07% for the week vs +0.27% for the prior week, with -10bp of cross-bias alpha (vs 92bp of alpha on the cross-bias the previous week).</li>
<li>There are nearly 80 recommendations this week (turnover remains low).  </li>
</ul>
</div>
<hr>
<div>
<div>
<h2>Consumer Sector</h2>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>The first sector discussed is Consumer, where most H-shares fell on the week </p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Spreads were remarkably tame.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> ended the week down 1.1% after rising in the first four days, and the shares even fell Friday despite <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0304/2021030401545.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcing</a> Thursday after the close that production was up 125%yoy in February, and sales +106%. BYD is down 20+% in four weeks. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> was only up small in sympathy, outperforming auto names, and significantly outperforming glass names across other sectors. Thursday saw significant selling of glass names. </li>
<li>Southbound was a net seller of nearly HK$585mm after selling HK$2bn in the previous two weeks. Only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> saw decent Southbound buying on a net basis (+HK$190mm). BYD was the big net sell at -HK$673mm. </li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Last week, I recommended staying long the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> H vs A, and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> H vs A. </p>
<p>Those four trades lost an average of 0.16% last week in spread terms after gaining 3.58% the previous week.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<section class="figure">
<section class="figure">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/192/669/original/Screenshot+2021-03-07+at+7.38.39+PM.png?1615117130" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="192669"></figure>
<p></p>
</section>
</section>
</div>
<div>
<section>For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.</section>
</div>


Spreads were mixed this week with 48 out of 100 observed pair spreads narrower and 52 wider. The big winner on the week was Financials with spreads 119bp narrower on average. Banks and Big Insurance generally narrowed. 


Overall, it was a lackluster performance, and one cannot say spreads won't move wider, but at 40% discount (and an arithmetic average upside of 87% for each liquid H to reach parity with its A), this spreads are wide.






Sector


Last Week


Previous Week


3wks Ago


4wks Ago




Consumer


-  0.14%


-  1.65%


-  1.20%


+ 2.55%




Energy


-  0.36%


+ 0.67%


+ 1.43%


-  1.64%




Financials &amp; Real Estate


+ 1.19%


-  1.12%


+ 0.10%


+ 0.29%




Health Care &amp; Info Tech


-  0.54%


-  2.86%


+ 1.45%


-  1.52%




Industrials


-  0.42%


-  1.20%


+ 0.26%


-  0.62%




Materials


-  0.33%


-  0.84%


+ 3.08%


-  0.57%




Utilities


-  1.25%


-  0.14%


+ 0.99%


+ 0.25%




Sector Average


-  0.26%


-  1.02%


+ 0.87%


-  0.18%




All Market Average


- 0.03%


-  1.22%


+ 0.76%


-  0.33%









10-day cross-market spread volatility continues to be high at 26% annualised. This is down off highs in the low 30s a couple weeks ago, but the long-term average is quite a bit lower. 




The H/A Spread Market



The past week has seen H-shares come off sharply and spreads widen reasonably dramatically. 








The average discount appears not to want to tighten, still. The average spread has kept at around 40.0% for the past four weeks or so (despite that illiquidity-bump around LNY). 








Last Week's Recommendations



There were 80 recommendations last week. This was the first losing week on alpha in several. 
The 34 short spread recommendations lost an average of 0.12%, underperforming the market as a whole (which saw the average spread widen 0.03%). That is negative alpha of 9bp after positive alpha of 48bp the previous week on 33 spreads.
The 46 long recommendations averaged losses of 4bp during the week, underperforming the market as a whole by 1bp (vs +46bp outperformance the previous week). The combined total package was up -0.07% for the week vs +0.27% for the prior week, with -10bp of cross-bias alpha (vs 92bp of alpha on the cross-bias the previous week).
There are nearly 80 recommendations this week (turnover remains low).  





Consumer Sector



The first sector discussed is Consumer, where most H-shares fell on the week 



Spreads were remarkably tame.

BYD (1211 HK) ended the week down 1.1% after rising in the first four days, and the shares even fell Friday despite announcing Thursday after the close that production was up 125%yoy in February, and sales +106%. BYD is down 20+% in four weeks. 

Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) was only up small in sympathy, outperforming auto names, and significantly outperforming glass names across other sectors. Thursday saw significant selling of glass names. 
Southbound was a net seller of nearly HK$585mm after selling HK$2bn in the previous two weeks. Only Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) saw decent Southbound buying on a net basis (+HK$190mm). BYD was the big net sell at -HK$673mm. 





Last week, I recommended staying long the Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) H vs A, and short BYD (1211 HK), Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK), and Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) H vs A. 
Those four trades lost an average of 0.16% last week in spread terms after gaining 3.58% the previous week.












For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.


Quiddity Weekly H/A: Financials Outpace Everything Else: Marketwide 87% Upside to A-Share Parity

China Suntien Green Energy / Event-Driven

<div>
<p>Several weeks ago, I gave the warning H/A spreads had moved tighter - too far too fast. The next week, spreads widened, they bounced back with a vengeance, then slightly wider in the short week at the start of Chinese New Year, and bouncing back in the post-CNY week.</p>
<p>They have started to move wider again, and given the global form in risk and higher volatility right now, I would not be surprised if they continued a bit wider.</p>
</div><div>
<p>Last week, in the first full week after the end of all the Chinese New Year festivities, all but one sector saw average spreads widen, and market-wide, spreads had their worst week in quite a while.</p>
<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 198.182px;"><p>Sector</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 103.636px;"><p>Last Week</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;"><p>Previous Week</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 100px;"><p>3wks Ago</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 102.727px;"><p>4wks Ago</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 198.182px;"><p>Consumer</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 103.636px;"><p>-  1.65%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;"><p>-  1.20%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 100px;"><p>+ 2.55%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 102.727px;"><p>+ 2.32%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 198.182px;"><p>Energy</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 103.636px;"><p>+ 0.67%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;"><p>+ 1.43%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 100px;"><p>-  1.64%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 102.727px;"><p>+ 1.98%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 198.182px;"><p>Financials &amp; Real Estate</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 103.636px;"><p>-  1.12%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;"><p>+ 0.10%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 100px;"><p>+ 0.29%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 102.727px;"><p>+ 0.62%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 198.182px;"><p>Health Care &amp; Info Tech</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 103.636px;"><p>-  2.86%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;"><p>+ 1.45%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 100px;"><p>-  1.52%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 102.727px;"><p>+ 2.29%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 198.182px;"><p>Industrials</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 103.636px;"><p>-  1.20%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;"><p>+ 0.26%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 100px;"><p>-  0.62%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 102.727px;"><p>+ 2.48%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 198.182px;"><p>Materials</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 103.636px;"><p>-  0.84%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;"><p>+ 3.08%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 100px;"><p>-  0.57%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 102.727px;"><p>+ 2.66%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 198.182px;"><p>Utilities</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 103.636px;"><p>-  0.14%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;"><p>+ 0.99%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 100px;"><p>+ 0.25%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 102.727px;"><p>+ 1.06%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 198.182px;"><p>Sector Average</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 103.636px;"><p>-  1.02%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;"><p>+ 0.87%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 100px;"><p>-  0.18%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 102.727px;"><p>+ 1.92%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 198.182px;"><p><strong>All Market Average</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 103.636px;"><p><strong>-  1.22%</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;"><p><strong>+ 0.76%</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 100px;"><p><strong>-  0.33%</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 102.727px;"><p><strong>+ 1.80%</strong></p></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>Developers saw their Hs rise dramatically on the week on new rules about land sales which would appear to favor large developers over smaller developers, but few have an H/A spread presence.</p>
</div><div><div>
<hr>
<h3>The H/A Spread Market</h3>
</div></div><div>
<p>The past week has seen H-shares come off sharply and spreads widen reasonably dramatically. </p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/191/379/original/Screenshot+2021-02-28+at+7.50.25+PM.png?1614513037" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="191379"></figure></section>
</div><p>The average discount appears not to want to tighten. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/191/402/original/Screenshot+2021-02-28+at+9.36.30+PM.png?1614519456" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="191402"></figure></section><p></p><h2>Last Week's Recommendations</h2><ul>
<li>There were 78 recommendations last week. </li>
<li>The 33 short recommendations gained an average of 1.70%, outperforming the market as a whole (which saw the average spread widen 1.22%). That is alpha of 48bp.</li>
<li>The 45 long recommendations averaged losses of 76bp during the week, outperforming the market as a whole by 46bp. The combined total package was up 0.27% for the week, with 92bp of alpha on the cross-bias. </li>
</ul><hr><section><div><h2>Consumer Sector</h2></div>
<div><p>The first sector discussed is Consumer, where liquid H/A spreads widened on average 1.65% over the past week, with the sector continuing to see significant bumpiness. </p></div>
<div><ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> saw its spread move 2.9% narrower last week after widening 3.1% in the previous two weeks. It is now 3.7% narrower over four weeks.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> narrowed too, but the others in the space widened. </li>
<li>All but one stock in the sector saw its H-share decline in double digit percentages. The average H in the sector moved down 15.9% in the week. Only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a> was spared that indignity, seeings its H fall 'only' 9.7%.</li>
<li>Southbound was a net seller of nearly HK$2bn of stock since the 10th of February, purchasing only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> on a net basis.</li>
</ul></div>
<div><div><div class="content-highlight">
<p>Last week, I recommended staying long the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a>, and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> H vs A. </p>
<p>Those four trades gained an average of 3.58% in spread terms on the week.</p>
</div></div></div>
<section><section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/191/384/original/Screenshot+2021-02-28+at+8.09.50+PM.png?1614514204" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="191384"></figure><p></p></section></section></section><section><em>For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.</em></section></section>


Several weeks ago, I gave the warning H/A spreads had moved tighter - too far too fast. The next week, spreads widened, they bounced back with a vengeance, then slightly wider in the short week at the start of Chinese New Year, and bouncing back in the post-CNY week.
They have started to move wider again, and given the global form in risk and higher volatility right now, I would not be surprised if they continued a bit wider.

Last week, in the first full week after the end of all the Chinese New Year festivities, all but one sector saw average spreads widen, and market-wide, spreads had their worst week in quite a while.


Sector
Last Week
Previous Week
3wks Ago
4wks Ago


Consumer
-  1.65%
-  1.20%
+ 2.55%
+ 2.32%


Energy
+ 0.67%
+ 1.43%
-  1.64%
+ 1.98%


Financials &amp; Real Estate
-  1.12%
+ 0.10%
+ 0.29%
+ 0.62%


Health Care &amp; Info Tech
-  2.86%
+ 1.45%
-  1.52%
+ 2.29%


Industrials
-  1.20%
+ 0.26%
-  0.62%
+ 2.48%


Materials
-  0.84%
+ 3.08%
-  0.57%
+ 2.66%


Utilities
-  0.14%
+ 0.99%
+ 0.25%
+ 1.06%


Sector Average
-  1.02%
+ 0.87%
-  0.18%
+ 1.92%


All Market Average
-  1.22%
+ 0.76%
-  0.33%
+ 1.80%


Developers saw their Hs rise dramatically on the week on new rules about land sales which would appear to favor large developers over smaller developers, but few have an H/A spread presence.


The H/A Spread Market

The past week has seen H-shares come off sharply and spreads widen reasonably dramatically. 

The average discount appears not to want to tighten. Last Week's Recommendations
There were 78 recommendations last week. 
The 33 short recommendations gained an average of 1.70%, outperforming the market as a whole (which saw the average spread widen 1.22%). That is alpha of 48bp.
The 45 long recommendations averaged losses of 76bp during the week, outperforming the market as a whole by 46bp. The combined total package was up 0.27% for the week, with 92bp of alpha on the cross-bias. 
Consumer Sector
The first sector discussed is Consumer, where liquid H/A spreads widened on average 1.65% over the past week, with the sector continuing to see significant bumpiness. 


BYD (1211 HK) saw its spread move 2.9% narrower last week after widening 3.1% in the previous two weeks. It is now 3.7% narrower over four weeks.  Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) narrowed too, but the others in the space widened. 
All but one stock in the sector saw its H-share decline in double digit percentages. The average H in the sector moved down 15.9% in the week. Only Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) was spared that indignity, seeings its H fall 'only' 9.7%.
Southbound was a net seller of nearly HK$2bn of stock since the 10th of February, purchasing only Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) on a net basis.


Last week, I recommended staying long the Great Wall Motor (2333 HK), and short BYD (1211 HK), Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK), and Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) H vs A. 
Those four trades gained an average of 3.58% in spread terms on the week.

For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Strong Dispersion, Strong Alpha; Brokers Beat Banks

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<p>The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 26 February. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 12 March.</p><p>For the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) there are 36 inclusions and 29 deletions, taking the number of index constituents up to 500.</p><p>Although there are almost no assets indexed to the HSCI, the index forms the basis of stocks that are eligible for Southbound Stock Connect. Stocks that are included in the HSCI and subsequently included in the Stock Connect program get inflows from mainland investors. Secondary Listings are not eligible for inclusion in the Stock Connect program.</p><p>Of the 36 inclusions, 4 are already a part of Stock Connect by virtue of having listed A-shares, 2 are Secondary listings and will not be included in Stock Connect, 9 will be added to Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect, while 21 stocks will only be added to Shenzhen Stock Connect.</p><p>Of the 29 index deletions, 13 are not a part of Stock Connect, 7 will continue to remain a part of Stock Connect by virtue of having listed A-shares, while 9 will be deleted from the Stock Connect program.</p><p>We identify 4 stocks that could sell off ahead of their removal from the Stock Connect Buy list, while Biotech stocks could be in focus ahead of their inclusion in the Stock Connect Buy and Sell list.</p>

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 26 February. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 12 March.For the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) there are 36 inclusions and 29 deletions, taking the number of index constituents up to 500.Although there are almost no assets indexed to the HSCI, the index forms the basis of stocks that are eligible for Southbound Stock Connect. Stocks that are included in the HSCI and subsequently included in the Stock Connect program get inflows from mainland investors. Secondary Listings are not eligible for inclusion in the Stock Connect program.Of the 36 inclusions, 4 are already a part of Stock Connect by virtue of having listed A-shares, 2 are Secondary listings and will not be included in Stock Connect, 9 will be added to Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect, while 21 stocks will only be added to Shenzhen Stock Connect.Of the 29 index deletions, 13 are not a part of Stock Connect, 7 will continue to remain a part of Stock Connect by virtue of having listed A-shares, while 9 will be deleted from the Stock Connect program.We identify 4 stocks that could sell off ahead of their removal from the Stock Connect Buy list, while Biotech stocks could be in focus ahead of their inclusion in the Stock Connect Buy and Sell list.

HSCI Index Rebalance & Stock Connect: Inclusions & Exclusions

China

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co., Ltd. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops and sells small molecule drugs, antibody drug conjugates, and other products. Shanghai Junshi Biosciences markets its products worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.12)

The article analyzed viewpoints of potential VBP on insulin, internationalization of domestic pharmaceutical companies, commercial health...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Genor Biopharma (6998.HK) - Here Is Why the Stock Price Decreased by About 50%

This article analyzed the concerns of Genor Biopharma in terms of core products, competitive landscape, industry characteristics and the potential...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Strong Dispersion, Strong Alpha; Brokers Beat Banks

Great alpha last week as shorts beat by 48bp, longs beat by 46bp. Southbound saw one really big sell day, but on the week, buying continued apace...

Travis Lundy

HSCI Index Rebalance & Stock Connect: Inclusions & Exclusions

There are 36 inclusions/ 29 exclusions for the Hang Seng Composite Index. 9 stocks will be deleted from the Stock Connect Buy list & there are a...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.12)

The article analyzed viewpoints of potential VBP on insulin, internationalization of domestic pharmaceutical companies, commercial health...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Genor Biopharma (6998.HK) - Here Is Why the Stock Price Decreased by About 50%

This article analyzed the concerns of Genor Biopharma in terms of core products, competitive landscape, industry characteristics and the potential...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Financials Outpace Everything Else: Marketwide 87% Upside to A-Share Parity

H/A spreads were largely unchanged on the week but more widened than narrowed. Financials was the only sector narrower on the whole. With average...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Strong Dispersion, Strong Alpha; Brokers Beat Banks

Great alpha last week as shorts beat by 48bp, longs beat by 46bp. Southbound saw one really big sell day, but on the week, buying continued apace...

Travis Lundy

HSCI Index Rebalance & Stock Connect: Inclusions & Exclusions

There are 36 inclusions/ 29 exclusions for the Hang Seng Composite Index. 9 stocks will be deleted from the Stock Connect Buy list & there are a...

Brian Freitas