HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-junshi-bioscience-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27760:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK)</a> announced that it has terminated its PD-1 commercialization partnership with AstraZeneca. Lower-than-expected sales performance is seen as the key reason.</li>
<li>Junshi's commercialization team is the weakest among the domestic Top Four.As the FDA's attitude may have changed, the logic of exporting innovative domestic drugs to foreign markets could be shaken.</li>
<li>Given the poor financing environment,it's challenging for Junshi to afford large investment in R&amp;D and licensing deals by just relying on cash in hand and cashflow generating from commercialized products.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK) announced that it has terminated its PD-1 commercialization partnership with AstraZeneca. Lower-than-expected sales performance is seen as the key reason.
Junshi's commercialization team is the weakest among the domestic Top Four.As the FDA's attitude may have changed, the logic of exporting innovative domestic drugs to foreign markets could be shaken.
Given the poor financing environment,it's challenging for Junshi to afford large investment in R&amp;D and licensing deals by just relying on cash in hand and cashflow generating from commercialized products.


Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877.HK/688180.CH) - Behind the “break Up” with AstraZeneca

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 135 stocks over the last week.</li>
<li>The average A/H premium changed by -0.9ppt week on week to 118.3%. </li>
<li>Biggest decline in A/H premium appeared in the Communication Services and Consumer Staples sector while the biggest increase was from the Real Estate sector</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 135 stocks over the last week.
The average A/H premium changed by -0.9ppt week on week to 118.3%. 
Biggest decline in A/H premium appeared in the Communication Services and Consumer Staples sector while the biggest increase was from the Real Estate sector


A/H Premium Weekly: Decline in Com Service and Consumer Staple Offset by Real Estate

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 135 stocks over the last week. </li>
<li>Top three sectors in terms of A/H premium increase were consumer stable, utilities and industrials.</li>
<li>Six industrial names appeared in the top 10 stocks with week-on-week A/H increases. </li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 135 stocks over the last week. 
Top three sectors in terms of A/H premium increase were consumer stable, utilities and industrials.
Six industrial names appeared in the top 10 stocks with week-on-week A/H increases. 


A/H Premium Weekly: Industrials Led Premium Increase

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>For Pfizer,orders on COVID-19 vaccine and Paxlovid would generate over US$50 billion revenue in 2022. So whether Pfizer would pursue for new M&amp;A opportunities become the focus of the market.</li>
<li>The oral COVID-19 antivirals are a great opportunity for the development of Chinese API companies, improving the overall valuation. However, CXOs are actually the first to benefit from this market.</li>
<li>If the COVID mutates in a more transmissible direction, the valuation and forecast of related companies in this industrial chain needs readjustment.However, if it doesn’t, the logic would change again.</li>
</ul>


For Pfizer,orders on COVID-19 vaccine and Paxlovid would generate over US$50 billion revenue in 2022. So whether Pfizer would pursue for new M&amp;A opportunities become the focus of the market.
The oral COVID-19 antivirals are a great opportunity for the development of Chinese API companies, improving the overall valuation. However, CXOs are actually the first to benefit from this market.
If the COVID mutates in a more transmissible direction, the valuation and forecast of related companies in this industrial chain needs readjustment.However, if it doesn’t, the logic would change again.


Oral COVID-19 Antivirals and the Impact on China

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zai-lab-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25877:1" rel="noopener">Zai Lab Ltd (ZLAB US)</a> is famous for its license-in mode, but the biggest highlight is its strong vision and high success rate in the process, forming a distinctive pipeline.</li>
<li>The concerns such as the changes of pattern in license-in mode, attitude of the regulatory authorities, fierce competition and commercialization outlook also deserve attention.</li>
<li>Investing a company is actually investing in its people. We have confidence that Zai Lab would find its way out.</li>
</ul>



Zai Lab Ltd (ZLAB US) is famous for its license-in mode, but the biggest highlight is its strong vision and high success rate in the process, forming a distinctive pipeline.
The concerns such as the changes of pattern in license-in mode, attitude of the regulatory authorities, fierce competition and commercialization outlook also deserve attention.
Investing a company is actually investing in its people. We have confidence that Zai Lab would find its way out.


Zai Lab Ltd (ZLAB.US) - The Strength and the Concerns

China

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co., Ltd. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops and sells small molecule drugs, antibody drug conjugates, and other products. Shanghai Junshi Biosciences markets its products worldwide.

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Shanghai Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK)

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877.HK/688180.CH) - Behind the “break Up” with AstraZeneca

The insight analyzed Junshi in terms of the potential reasons behind the termination of PD-1 commercialization partnership with AstraZeneca, the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

A/H Premium Weekly: Decline in Com Service and Consumer Staple Offset by Real Estate

Biggest decline in A/H premium appeared in the Communication Services and Consumer Staples sector while the biggest increase was from the Real...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A/H Premium Weekly: Industrials Led Premium Increase

Top three sectors in terms of A/H premium increase were consumer stable, utilities and industrials. Six industrial names appeared in the top 10 A/H...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Oral COVID-19 Antivirals and the Impact on China

This insight analyzed Pfizer's Paxlovid and Merck’s Molnupiravir after FDA EUA, the global market potential, the impact on China market and related...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Zai Lab Ltd (ZLAB.US) - The Strength and the Concerns

This insight analyzes Zai Lab about its distinctive pipeline, the management team, the concerns on license-in mode, regulatory...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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