Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Quantitative Analysis

<p>This insight re-introduces a weekly monitor for H-Share/A-Share spreads.</p>
<p>The monitor will be published every weekend for the data ending the previous week. It includes all stocks where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...</p>
<ul>
<li>H/A Discount,</li>
<li>movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,</li>
<li>a 52-week Z-score for the spread,</li>
<li>A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,</li>
<li>Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, </li>
<li>There is also a chart showing the narrowest and widest spread and the average spread over the last three years. </li>
</ul>
<p>In the example for the H/A spreads in the <strong>Materials</strong> sector below, spreads were generally flat over the past five days and were wider by 1.5% over the past 20 days. Southbound were net buyers on average on the H side of each pair over both 5 days and 20 days. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-61153493-5437-47ee-a8d3-aec41fb7f1da" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (1787 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ganfeng-lithium-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26795:1" rel="noopener">Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)</a> are spreads at the relatively narrow end of their 52-week ranges, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-iron-steel-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:204:1" rel="noopener">Maanshan Iron &amp; Steel H (323 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bbmg-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2821:1" rel="noopener">BBMG Corp H (2009 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinopec-shanghai-petrochemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17576:1" rel="noopener">Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical (338 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:159:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement Co Ltd H (914 HK)</a> are at the wider end of their 52-week ranges. The average spread in the sector widened somewhat dramatically in the month of August as seen on the chart, but stabilized at the beginning of September.</p>
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<p></p>
</section>
</section>
<p>Commentary is offered for the major movers and influences along with market observations on the sector rotation movement and particularly significant changes.</p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Recommendations are in highlights like this.</p>
</div>
<section class="figure">
<p>More below the fold.  </p>
<hr>
<p><em>By the way, there are two versions of the Spread Evolution mini charts. Input is welcomed in the Discussion section as to which one is preferred (bars or lines).</em></p>
</section>

This insight re-introduces a weekly monitor for H-Share/A-Share spreads.
The monitor will be published every weekend for the data ending the previous week. It includes all stocks where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...

H/A Discount,
movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,
a 52-week Z-score for the spread,
A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,
Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, 
There is also a chart showing the narrowest and widest spread and the average spread over the last three years. 

In the example for the H/A spreads in the Materials sector below, spreads were generally flat over the past five days and were wider by 1.5% over the past 20 days. Southbound were net buyers on average on the H side of each pair over both 5 days and 20 days. Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (1787 HK) and Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) are spreads at the relatively narrow end of their 52-week ranges, while Maanshan Iron &amp; Steel H (323 HK), BBMG Corp H (2009 HK), Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical (338 HK), and Anhui Conch Cement Co Ltd H (914 HK) are at the wider end of their 52-week ranges. The average spread in the sector widened somewhat dramatically in the month of August as seen on the chart, but stabilized at the beginning of September.






Commentary is offered for the major movers and influences along with market observations on the sector rotation movement and particularly significant changes.

Recommendations are in highlights like this.


More below the fold.  

By the way, there are two versions of the Spread Evolution mini charts. Input is welcomed in the Discussion section as to which one is preferred (bars or lines).


Quiddity Weekly H/A: Share Spread Monitor 16 Oct 2020

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Simcere Pharmaceutical Group / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/simcere-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29186:1" rel="noopener">Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (2096 HK)</a> is engaged in the R&amp;D, production and commercialisation of pharmaceuticals and is primarily focused on generic pharmaceuticals.  At the proposed IPO price range of HK$12.10-13.70 per share, Simcere will have a market cap of HK$31,528.8-35,697.9 million ($4.1-4.6 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, Simcere will raise net proceeds of HK$3,191.3 million ($412 million). </p></div><div id="ember2866">Seven cornerstone investors will subscribe for 43.81% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range. The cornerstone investors are Hillhouse Capital, Jiangbei Investment Group, Shenzhen Capital Group, Lake Bleu Capital, OrbiMed, Sage Partners and Jericho Capital. </div><div id="ember2871"></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/simcere-pharmaceutical-ipo-initiation-a-rough-patch" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our initiation note</a>, we highlighted that for investors willing to look past the 2020 results, Simcere is putting in place the right measures to ensure that the weak 1H20 was an exception rather than the rule. Overall, we think that an attractive PEG valuation and solid cornerstone support makes Simcere tempting at the proposed pricing range. </p></div></div></div>

Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (2096 HK) is engaged in the R&amp;D, production and commercialisation of pharmaceuticals and is primarily focused on generic pharmaceuticals.  At the proposed IPO price range of HK$12.10-13.70 per share, Simcere will have a market cap of HK$31,528.8-35,697.9 million ($4.1-4.6 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, Simcere will raise net proceeds of HK$3,191.3 million ($412 million). Seven cornerstone investors will subscribe for 43.81% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range. The cornerstone investors are Hillhouse Capital, Jiangbei Investment Group, Shenzhen Capital Group, Lake Bleu Capital, OrbiMed, Sage Partners and Jericho Capital. In our initiation note, we highlighted that for investors willing to look past the 2020 results, Simcere is putting in place the right measures to ensure that the weak 1H20 was an exception rather than the rule. Overall, we think that an attractive PEG valuation and solid cornerstone support makes Simcere tempting at the proposed pricing range. 

Simcere Pharmaceutical IPO: Valuation Insights

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Global indexes including the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US are following in the MSCI EM index’s footsteps by breaking to new highs. This is bullish and signals a new leg higher is underway. Additionally, the US dollar is showing signs of a breakdown, something we view as a positive for global risk sentiment as long as the decline continues to be orderly. Overall our outlook remains bullish and we suggest buying any dips. Growth remains long-term leadership -- remain overweight. Attractive growth Sectors highlighted in today’s report include: Health Care, Services, Technology, and Communications</p>

Global indexes including the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US are following in the MSCI EM index’s footsteps by breaking to new highs. This is bullish and signals a new leg higher is underway. Additionally, the US dollar is showing signs of a breakdown, something we view as a positive for global risk sentiment as long as the decline continues to be orderly. Overall our outlook remains bullish and we suggest buying any dips. Growth remains long-term leadership -- remain overweight. Attractive growth Sectors highlighted in today’s report include: Health Care, Services, Technology, and Communications

U.S. Dollar Breakdown: Bullish For Ex-U.S. Equities

<p style="text-align: justify;">The global rally appears to be losing steam as the bearish rising wedge patterns we highlighted last week in the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE indexes ended up breaking down. Additionally, the aforementioned indexes and major indexes in Europe, Japan, and Hong Kong have been unable to break above longer-term resistance. While we believe global equities remain vulnerable to a pullback, some near-term consolidation is another possibility. For now we believe some consolidation makes sense as we remain in a sort of wait-and-see period as it relates to what will happen as countries and states aim to re-open.</p>

The global rally appears to be losing steam as the bearish rising wedge patterns we highlighted last week in the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE indexes ended up breaking down. Additionally, the aforementioned indexes and major indexes in Europe, Japan, and Hong Kong have been unable to break above longer-term resistance. While we believe global equities remain vulnerable to a pullback, some near-term consolidation is another possibility. For now we believe some consolidation makes sense as we remain in a sort of wait-and-see period as it relates to what will happen as countries and states aim to re-open.

Global Equity Rally Losing Upside Momentum

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Shanghai Henlius Biotech  / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> IPO lock-up will expire on 25th of March, six months post its listing. The stock has been underwater since listing. In this insight, we will walk through the newsflows on the company's drug assets, development of the market, cornerstone investors and pre-IPO investors that could sell upon lock-up expiry. We will also update the valuation of the company. The company will report results on March 23rd. </p>
<div>
<div>
<h2>Our coverage on Shanghai Henlius Biotech</h2>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shanghai-henlius-ipo-not-an-impressive-biosimilar-portfolio" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius (复宏汉霖) IPO: Not an Impressive Biosimilar Portfolio</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shanghai-henlius-ipo-valuation-of-four-biosimilars" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius (复宏汉霖) IPO: Valuation of Four Biosimilars</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shanghai-henlius-ipo-what-s-new-in-the-re-filed-prospectus" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius (复宏汉霖) IPO: What’s New in the Re-Filed Prospectus?</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shanghai-henlius-ipo-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius (复宏汉霖) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shanghai-henlius-ipo-thoughts-on-price-range-cornerstone-valuation-trap" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius (复宏汉霖) IPO: Thoughts on Price Range, Cornerstone, Valuation Trap</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shanghai-henlius-ipo-newsflow-on-hlx10-clinical-trial-and-asean-commercialization" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius (复宏汉霖) IPO: Newsflow on HLX10 Clinical Trial and ASEAN Commercialization</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shanghai-henlius-ipo-take-aways-from-peer-pd-1-sales-in-china" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius (复宏汉霖) IPO: Take-Aways from Peer PD-1 Sales in China</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/henlius-post-ipo-trading-weak-demands-ahead-of-debut-downside-remains" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Henlius (复宏汉霖) Post-IPO Trading: Weak Demands Ahead of Debut, Downside Remains</a></li>
</ul>
</div>

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) IPO lock-up will expire on 25th of March, six months post its listing. The stock has been underwater since listing. In this insight, we will walk through the newsflows on the company's drug assets, development of the market, cornerstone investors and pre-IPO investors that could sell upon lock-up expiry. We will also update the valuation of the company. The company will report results on March 23rd. 


Our coverage on Shanghai Henlius Biotech




Shanghai Henlius (复宏汉霖) IPO: Not an Impressive Biosimilar Portfolio
Shanghai Henlius (复宏汉霖) IPO: Valuation of Four Biosimilars
Shanghai Henlius (复宏汉霖) IPO: What’s New in the Re-Filed Prospectus?
Shanghai Henlius (复宏汉霖) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation
Shanghai Henlius (复宏汉霖) IPO: Thoughts on Price Range, Cornerstone, Valuation Trap
Shanghai Henlius (复宏汉霖) IPO: Newsflow on HLX10 Clinical Trial and ASEAN Commercialization
Shanghai Henlius (复宏汉霖) IPO: Take-Aways from Peer PD-1 Sales in China
Henlius (复宏汉霖) Post-IPO Trading: Weak Demands Ahead of Debut, Downside Remains



Trade Idea: Short Henlius Upon Lock-Up Expiry & 2H Results, HLX01 Likely Underperformed

China

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co., Ltd. is a pharmaceutical company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company manufactures genetic medicines, Chinese traditional medicines, diagnostic products, and medical instruments, provides technology, marketing, and advertising services, as well as invests in import and export trading.

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (600196 CH)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (600196 CH)

Simcere Pharmaceutical IPO: Valuation Insights

We think that an attractive PEG valuation and solid cornerstone support makes Simcere tempting at the proposed pricing range

Arun George

U.S. Dollar Breakdown: Bullish For Ex-U.S. Equities

Global indexes including the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US are following in the MSCI EM index’s footsteps by breaking to new highs. This is bullish and...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Rally Losing Upside Momentum

The global rally appears to be losing steam as the bearish rising wedge patterns we highlighted last week in the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and...

Vermilion Research

Trade Idea: Short Henlius Upon Lock-Up Expiry & 2H Results, HLX01 Likely Underperformed

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) IPO lock-up will expire on 25th of March, six months post its listing. The stock has been underwater since...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Share Spread Monitor 16 Oct 2020

Weekly Monitor for H-Share/A-Share spreads showing spread/discount performance, spread Z-scores, southbound buying and selling and net activity...

Travis Lundy

Simcere Pharmaceutical IPO: Valuation Insights

We think that an attractive PEG valuation and solid cornerstone support makes Simcere tempting at the proposed pricing range

Arun George

U.S. Dollar Breakdown: Bullish For Ex-U.S. Equities

Global indexes including the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US are following in the MSCI EM index’s footsteps by breaking to new highs. This is bullish and...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Rally Losing Upside Momentum

The global rally appears to be losing steam as the bearish rising wedge patterns we highlighted last week in the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and...

Vermilion Research

Trade Idea: Short Henlius Upon Lock-Up Expiry & 2H Results, HLX01 Likely Underperformed

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) IPO lock-up will expire on 25th of March, six months post its listing. The stock has been underwater since...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM