IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Blue Moon Group Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-blue-moon-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29179:1" rel="noopener">Blue Moon Group Holdings (BMG HK)</a> is a leading consumer household care company in China. At the proposed IPO price range of HK$10.20-13.16 per share, Blue Moon will have a market cap of HK$58,621-75,632 million ($7.6-9.8 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the total net proceeds are HK$8,492 million ($1.1 billion). </p>
<p>Six cornerstone investors will subscribe for HK$1,821 million ($235 million) of the offer shares (20.87% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the price range). The cornerstone investors are BOCHK Asset Management, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-dazhong-public-utilities-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7847:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities - A (600635 CH)</a>,  Fullerton, Changjia Group, Greater Bay Area Fund and Veritas Asset Management.</p>
</div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blue-moon-ipo-initiation-laundry-list" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41086" rel="noopener">Blue Moon IPO Initiation: Laundry List</a>, we stated that on balance we think the positives (market-leading brand, strong margin progression, solid cash generation) outweigh the negatives (declining revenue growth and short-term COVID-19 impact). In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blue-moon-ipo-doing-the-wash" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45481" rel="noopener">Blue Moon IPO: Doing the Wash</a> we noted that the 1H20 results disclosed in the PHIP show that the Blue Moon has creditably navigated the adverse revenue decline on its core business due to the COVID-19 outbreak by improving margin and cash generation. Overall, we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive IPO price range.</p></div></div>


Blue Moon Group Holdings (BMG HK) is a leading consumer household care company in China. At the proposed IPO price range of HK$10.20-13.16 per share, Blue Moon will have a market cap of HK$58,621-75,632 million ($7.6-9.8 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the total net proceeds are HK$8,492 million ($1.1 billion). 
Six cornerstone investors will subscribe for HK$1,821 million ($235 million) of the offer shares (20.87% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the price range). The cornerstone investors are BOCHK Asset Management, Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities - A (600635 CH),  Fullerton, Changjia Group, Greater Bay Area Fund and Veritas Asset Management.
In Blue Moon IPO Initiation: Laundry List, we stated that on balance we think the positives (market-leading brand, strong margin progression, solid cash generation) outweigh the negatives (declining revenue growth and short-term COVID-19 impact). In Blue Moon IPO: Doing the Wash we noted that the 1H20 results disclosed in the PHIP show that the Blue Moon has creditably navigated the adverse revenue decline on its core business due to the COVID-19 outbreak by improving margin and cash generation. Overall, we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive IPO price range.

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Morningstar

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Morningstar, Inc.

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Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Despite improving power demand, China’s coal-fired independent power producers’, or IPPs’, fourth-quarter profits are set to be hit by surging coal prices. We estimate the operating margins for major coal-fired IPPs will be just around breakeven in the fourth quarter. For 2017, while the government’s confirmation that power tariffs will be unchanged is a little disappointing, we think government’s easing in coal supply restrictions will dampen coal prices, leading to margins recovery for coal-fired IPPs.</p><p>We have reflected our slightly positive 2017 outlook into our earnings estimates and maintain our fair value estimates of HKD 7.40, HKD 2.54 and HKD 17.00 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/28" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28:1">Huaneng Power Intl Inc H (902 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3664" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3664:1">Datang Intl Power Gen Co H (991 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5385" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5385:1">China Resources Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (836 HK)</a>, respectively, ahead of the full-year earnings results in March.</p><p><em>Analysts: Jennifer Song and Lorraine Tan, CFA</em></p>

Despite improving power demand, China’s coal-fired independent power producers’, or IPPs’, fourth-quarter profits are set to be hit by surging coal prices. We estimate the operating margins for major coal-fired IPPs will be just around breakeven in the fourth quarter. For 2017, while the government’s confirmation that power tariffs will be unchanged is a little disappointing, we think government’s easing in coal supply restrictions will dampen coal prices, leading to margins recovery for coal-fired IPPs.We have reflected our slightly positive 2017 outlook into our earnings estimates and maintain our fair value estimates of HKD 7.40, HKD 2.54 and HKD 17.00 for Huaneng Power Intl Inc H (902 HK), Datang Intl Power Gen Co H (991 HK), and China Resources Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (836 HK), respectively, ahead of the full-year earnings results in March.Analysts: Jennifer Song and Lorraine Tan, CFA

Softening Coal Prices and Improving Demand Will Drive a Better 2017 Outlook for Coal-Fired IPPs.

<p>After extending our explicit forecast periods to 10 years from five years, w e have raised our fair value estimate for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14315:1">China Gas Holdings Ltd (384 HK)</a>, or CGH, to HKD 11.40 from HKD 10.30; that for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20525" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20525:1">China Resources Gas Group Ltd (1193 HK)</a>, or CRG, to HKD 27.50 from HKD 22.50; and that for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/316" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1">Enn Energy Holdings Ltd (2688 HK)</a>, or ENN, to HKD 50.00 from HKD 44.00.</p><p>We think CGH, CRG, and ENN still have further room to grow, as their penetration rates, at 52%, 45%, and 55%, respectively, are still relatively low compared with the average level of 70% in developed markets. At current price levels, CRG and ENN look attractive, while CGH is fairly valued, in our view.</p><p><em>Analyst: Jennifer Song &amp; Chokwai Lee</em></p>

After extending our explicit forecast periods to 10 years from five years, w e have raised our fair value estimate for China Gas Holdings Ltd (384 HK), or CGH, to HKD 11.40 from HKD 10.30; that for China Resources Gas Group Ltd (1193 HK), or CRG, to HKD 27.50 from HKD 22.50; and that for Enn Energy Holdings Ltd (2688 HK), or ENN, to HKD 50.00 from HKD 44.00.We think CGH, CRG, and ENN still have further room to grow, as their penetration rates, at 52%, 45%, and 55%, respectively, are still relatively low compared with the average level of 70% in developed markets. At current price levels, CRG and ENN look attractive, while CGH is fairly valued, in our view.Analyst: Jennifer Song &amp; Chokwai Lee

Raising Fair Value Estimates for City Gas Operators After Extending Our Forecast Periods

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<p><em>Smartkarma ECM Team puts out a weekly update on the deals we have covered recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</em></p><div><h2><em>Accuracy Rate:</em></h2></div><p>Our accuracy rate so far this year has been <strong>76.9% for IPOs and 67.6% for Placements.</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/017/189/original/2016-Total-Deals-2016-Accuracy-Rate-_chartbuilder.png?1480653097" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="17189"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/017/190/original/Total-Deals-Since-Inception-Accuracy-Rate-Since-Inception-_chartbuilder.png?1480653104" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="17190"></figure><p><strong>It has been a quiet week, there is no placement and listing. However, there are a few listings and book building next week.</strong></p><div><h2>IPOs:<br><br>
</h2></div><p><strong>What we wrote on this week:</strong></p><p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/csc-financial-ipo-review-good-exposure-to-china-s-investment-banking-industry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:7327">CSC Financial IPO Review - Good Exposure to China’s Investment Banking Industry</a></strong></p><ul>
<li><strong>Books closed on 2nd Dec and listing on 9th Dec</strong></li>
<li>…</li>
</ul>

Smartkarma ECM Team puts out a weekly update on the deals we have covered recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.Accuracy Rate:Our accuracy rate so far this year has been 76.9% for IPOs and 67.6% for Placements.It has been a quiet week, there is no placement and listing. However, there are a few listings and book building next week.IPOs:  
What we wrote on this week:CSC Financial IPO Review - Good Exposure to China’s Investment Banking Industry
Books closed on 2nd Dec and listing on 9th Dec
…


Smartkarma - ECM Coverage Weekly Update (5 Dec 2016)

<p><em>Smartkarma ECM Team puts out a weekly update on the deals we have covered recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</em></p><div><h2><em>Accuracy Rate:</em></h2></div><p>Our accuracy rate so far this year has been <strong>76.9% for IPOs and 68.1% for Placements.</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/016/891/original/2016-Total-Deals-2016-Accuracy-Rate-_chartbuilder.png?1480066470" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="16891"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/016/892/original/Total-Deals-Since-Inception-Accuracy-Rate-Since-Inception-_chartbuilder.png?1480066480" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="16892"></figure><h2><em>Placements:</em></h2><div><h2><strong>What we wrote on this week:</strong></h2></div><p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shinhan-financial-placement-industry-tailwinds-and-strong-fundamentals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:7192">Shinhan Financial Placement - Industry Tailwinds and Strong Fundamentals</a></strong></p><ul>
<li>Holding up 3.3% above deal price </li>
<li>Fellow insight provider, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/545" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:545">Paul M. Kitney, PhD</a> , is also bullish on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6978" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6978:1">Shinhan Financial Group Ltd (055550 KS)</a> in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/animal-spirits-report-korea-equity-strategy-overweight-as-earnings-hit-the-sweet-spot" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:6389">ANIMAL SPIRITS™ REPORT: Korea</a>…</li>
</ul>

Smartkarma ECM Team puts out a weekly update on the deals we have covered recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.Accuracy Rate:Our accuracy rate so far this year has been 76.9% for IPOs and 68.1% for Placements.Placements:What we wrote on this week:Shinhan Financial Placement - Industry Tailwinds and Strong Fundamentals
Holding up 3.3% above deal price 
Fellow insight provider, Paul M. Kitney, PhD , is also bullish on Shinhan Financial Group Ltd (055550 KS) in ANIMAL SPIRITS™ REPORT: Korea…


Smartkarma - ECM Coverage Weekly Update (28 Nov 2016)

China

Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities (Group) Co., Ltd. provides utility service and public transportation service. The Company also researches, develops and produces high technologies products.

Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities - A (600635 CH)

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Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities - A (600635 CH)

Blue Moon IPO: Valuation Insights

Blue Moon has launched its HK IPO to raise net proceeds of $1.1 billion, at the mid-point of the HK$10.20-13.16 price range. Overall, we think that...

Arun George

Softening Coal Prices and Improving Demand Will Drive a Better 2017 Outlook for Coal-Fired IPPs.

Despite improving power demand, China’s coal-fired independent power producers’, or IPPs’, fourth-quarter profits are set to be hit by surging coal...

Morningstar, Inc.

Raising Fair Value Estimates for City Gas Operators After Extending Our Forecast Periods

After extending our explicit forecast periods to 10 years from five years, w e have raised our fair value estimate for China Gas Holdings Ltd (384...

Morningstar, Inc.

Smartkarma - ECM Coverage Weekly Update (5 Dec 2016)

Smartkarma ECM Team puts out a weekly update on the deals we have covered recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.Accuracy Rate:Our accuracy...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Smartkarma - ECM Coverage Weekly Update (28 Nov 2016)

Smartkarma ECM Team puts out a weekly update on the deals we have covered recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.Accuracy Rate:Our accuracy...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)