HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We noticed some positive updates about Ascentage as competitors' products have encountered varying degrees of challenges. However, the top priority for Ascentage is to get the approval of APG-2575 first.</li>
<li>China Resources Boya has agreed to buy Green Cross for RMB1.82 billion, with premium of 160%.We think this is the right strategy considering the high barriers in blood products industry. </li>
<li>Weigao’s performance was negatively affected by VBP and anti-corruption campaign. The unsatisfactory share price performance is closely related to its business model. 2x P/S is reasonable for Weigao.</li>
</ul>


We noticed some positive updates about Ascentage as competitors' products have encountered varying degrees of challenges. However, the top priority for Ascentage is to get the approval of APG-2575 first.
China Resources Boya has agreed to buy Green Cross for RMB1.82 billion, with premium of 160%.We think this is the right strategy considering the high barriers in blood products industry. 
Weigao’s performance was negatively affected by VBP and anti-corruption campaign. The unsatisfactory share price performance is closely related to its business model. 2x P/S is reasonable for Weigao.


China Healthcare Weekly (July.28)- Ascentage Gets "A Big Gift", CR Boya Acquires Green Cross, Weigao

<ul>
<li>Due to centralized procurement and anti-corruption campaign in 23H2, negative YoY revenue growth in 2023 seems to be inevitable. We are not optimistic about Weigao's performance turnaround in 2024.</li>
<li>After new policy strictly prohibiting borrowing to purchase medical equipment in public hospitals was released, the investment logic of medical device sector changes, which would negatively affect Weigao’s outlook.</li>
<li>Weigao feels like “living off its past gains”.Current valuation is reasonable not undervalued. There’s no need to rush to long this stock when downward trend in share price hasn’t reversed.</li>
</ul>


Due to centralized procurement and anti-corruption campaign in 23H2, negative YoY revenue growth in 2023 seems to be inevitable. We are not optimistic about Weigao's performance turnaround in 2024.
After new policy strictly prohibiting borrowing to purchase medical equipment in public hospitals was released, the investment logic of medical device sector changes, which would negatively affect Weigao’s outlook.
Weigao feels like “living off its past gains”.Current valuation is reasonable not undervalued. There’s no need to rush to long this stock when downward trend in share price hasn’t reversed.


Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Co (1066.HK) - 2023 Full-Year Results Could Be Ugly

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 6 September.</li>
<li>With no constituent changes in March and 1 add/1 delete in June, there could be more changes in September with Health Care stocks among the potential inclusions.</li>
<li>Changes to the Hang Seng Industry Classification System (HSICS) will be implemented from the September rebalance and that will alter industry coverage.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 6 September.
With no constituent changes in March and 1 add/1 delete in June, there could be more changes in September with Health Care stocks among the potential inclusions.
Changes to the Hang Seng Industry Classification System (HSICS) will be implemented from the September rebalance and that will alter industry coverage.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for September

Topsports International Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The China equity markets have continued to trade lower with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> outperforming other mainland indices as the National Team continues to pump money into ETFs tracking the index.</li>
<li>We currently estimate selling of around US$1.39bn across 74 stocks listed on the mainland and in Hong Kong. There could be fewer deletions depending on the review date chosen.</li>
<li>The potential deletes have dropped a lot since the start of the calendar year with big underperformance versus the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


The China equity markets have continued to trade lower with the CSI 300 Index outperforming other mainland indices as the National Team continues to pump money into ETFs tracking the index.
We currently estimate selling of around US$1.39bn across 74 stocks listed on the mainland and in Hong Kong. There could be fewer deletions depending on the review date chosen.
The potential deletes have dropped a lot since the start of the calendar year with big underperformance versus the HSCEI Index, CSI 300 Index and CSI Smallcap 500 Index.


China: Passive Selling Expected Later This Month

<ul>
<li>There are a bunch of stocks listed in Hong Kong that have underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a> and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in August.</li>
<li>The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of August where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.</li>
<li>There has been a big jump in cumulative excess volume in some stocks and the A/H premium on a lot of the names has jumped over the last few months.</li>
</ul>


There are a bunch of stocks listed in Hong Kong that have underperformed the HSCEI INDEX and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in August.
The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of August where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
There has been a big jump in cumulative excess volume in some stocks and the A/H premium on a lot of the names has jumped over the last few months.


Hong Kong: Stocks Facing the Passive Boot in August

China

Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, researches and develops, produces, and sells single-use aseptic polymer medical products.

Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Co (1066 HK)

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Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Co (1066 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (July.28)- Ascentage Gets "A Big Gift", CR Boya Acquires Green Cross, Weigao

We noticed some positive updates about Ascentage as competitors' products encountered challenges. China Resources Boya acquires Green Cross....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang