Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Seven &amp; I has announced major restructuring of its struggling Ito-Yokado GMS chain – a company that big investors have long demanded be sold off entirely. </li>
<li>The latest round of cuts had to wait until the company’s founder finally passed away, although are likely not going to be the last.</li>
<li>Seven &amp; I has long had a coherent plan to rationalise - but was just waiting for the founder to pass – with a series of disposals now likely.</li>
</ul>


Seven &amp; I has announced major restructuring of its struggling Ito-Yokado GMS chain – a company that big investors have long demanded be sold off entirely. 
The latest round of cuts had to wait until the company’s founder finally passed away, although are likely not going to be the last.
Seven &amp; I has long had a coherent plan to rationalise - but was just waiting for the founder to pass – with a series of disposals now likely.


Seven & I: The Biggest Barrier to Change Has Gone

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.</li>
<li>FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. </li>
<li>We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.
FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. 
We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.


Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>After raising full-year guidance in 3QFY22 due to stronger than expected performance in the overseas business, Seven &amp; I is scheduled to release the fourth-quarter results on 7th April 2022.</li>
<li>Domestic performance has been relatively stable, but 7-Eleven Inc should outperform expectations in the US through the yen depreciation and rising fuel retail margins.</li>
<li>Thus, we would buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> leading up to earnings expecting substantial upside on a potentially large earnings beat.</li>
</ul>


After raising full-year guidance in 3QFY22 due to stronger than expected performance in the overseas business, Seven &amp; I is scheduled to release the fourth-quarter results on 7th April 2022.
Domestic performance has been relatively stable, but 7-Eleven Inc should outperform expectations in the US through the yen depreciation and rising fuel retail margins.
Thus, we would buy Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) leading up to earnings expecting substantial upside on a potentially large earnings beat.


Seven & I: Going Strong in Overseas, Another Beat On the Cards

<ul>
<li>Seven &amp; I's plans to consolidate its supermarket operations and list in 2027 remain speculative but the timing shows that management was swayed more by the founder's death than activists.</li>
<li>It will need to bring Ito-Yokado (IY) back to profit first and, although it wants to keep at least a 15% stake, there is the strong possibility of a sale.</li>
<li>What matters more is not IY stores but the new SIP format. With CVS saturated, SIP is only way to grow within Japan but this depends on Ito-Yokado supply chains.</li>
</ul>


Seven &amp; I's plans to consolidate its supermarket operations and list in 2027 remain speculative but the timing shows that management was swayed more by the founder's death than activists.
It will need to bring Ito-Yokado (IY) back to profit first and, although it wants to keep at least a 15% stake, there is the strong possibility of a sale.
What matters more is not IY stores but the new SIP format. With CVS saturated, SIP is only way to grow within Japan but this depends on Ito-Yokado supply chains.


Seven & I Letting Go of Ito-Yokado at Last?

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Value Act's recent statement might suggest that they have prevailed and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> has yielded to their demands. However, the reality might be less straightforward.</li>
<li>Value Act sought new market expansion, but Seven &amp; I is focused on reinforcing its presence in existing, well-established markets.</li>
<li>Given Value Act's impatience, their acceptance of Seven &amp; I's plan for a 2026 Super Stores IPO, contingent on a business transformation, is unexpected.</li>
</ul>


Value Act's recent statement might suggest that they have prevailed and Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) has yielded to their demands. However, the reality might be less straightforward.
Value Act sought new market expansion, but Seven &amp; I is focused on reinforcing its presence in existing, well-established markets.
Given Value Act's impatience, their acceptance of Seven &amp; I's plan for a 2026 Super Stores IPO, contingent on a business transformation, is unexpected.


Investor Activism Update: Seven & I Sets the Path in Investor Activism Battle

Japan

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)

Seven & I: The Biggest Barrier to Change Has Gone

Activist investors complain about the lack of change at Seven & I but fealty to the founder was always stronger. That has now gone and a lot of...

Michael Causton

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

Seven & I: Going Strong in Overseas, Another Beat On the Cards

7-Eleven Inc should outperform market expectations as the business benefited from the Yen depreciation and rising fuel prices. We would buy Seven &...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Seven & I Letting Go of Ito-Yokado at Last?

Seven may consolidate supermarket operations and list in 2027 but will need to make Ito-Yokado profitable and outright sale may be more likely,...

Michael Causton

Investor Activism Update: Seven & I Sets the Path in Investor Activism Battle

To us, it seems that instead of merely capitulating to Value Act's demands, Seven & I is strategically dictating the terms, with Value Act...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Seven & I: The Biggest Barrier to Change Has Gone

Activist investors complain about the lack of change at Seven & I but fealty to the founder was always stronger. That has now gone and a lot of...

Michael Causton

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

Seven & I: Going Strong in Overseas, Another Beat On the Cards

7-Eleven Inc should outperform market expectations as the business benefited from the Yen depreciation and rising fuel prices. We would buy Seven &...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Seven & I Letting Go of Ito-Yokado at Last?

​Seven may consolidate supermarket operations and list in 2027 but will need to make Ito-Yokado profitable and outright sale may be more likely,...

Michael Causton

Investor Activism Update: Seven & I Sets the Path in Investor Activism Battle

To us, it seems that instead of merely capitulating to Value Act's demands, Seven & I is strategically dictating the terms, with Value Act...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Seven may consolidate supermarket operations and list in 2027 but will need to make Ito-Yokado profitable and outright sale may be more likely,...