Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>JPX has commenced a market consultation on changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)</a> including expansion of the universe and periodic stock selection.</li>
<li>Based on current market cap/ liquidity, there could be 38 adds and 447 deletions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX</a>, though the changes only start in October 2026. </li>
<li>The deletions will be phased out of the index in 8 steps that will end in July 2028 and most of the stocks will move to the TOPIX Next-tier. </li>
</ul>


JPX has commenced a market consultation on changes to the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX) including expansion of the universe and periodic stock selection.
Based on current market cap/ liquidity, there could be 38 adds and 447 deletions for the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, though the changes only start in October 2026. 
The deletions will be phased out of the index in 8 steps that will end in July 2028 and most of the stocks will move to the TOPIX Next-tier. 


TOPIX Market Consultation: Wider Next-Gen Universe in a Couple of Years; But Stocks Moving Already

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The ¥100 Shop chains are facing higher COGS on one side and rising wages on the other, a problem when you run a fixed price chain at just ¥100. </li>
<li>Most (except <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seria-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12989:1" rel="noopener">Seria Co Ltd (2782 JP))</a> have reacted by introducing new, higher priced lines led by Daiso.</li>
<li>Watts, the smallest chain, is now catching up and higher priced lines will make up a third of stock by 2027.</li>
</ul>


The ¥100 Shop chains are facing higher COGS on one side and rising wages on the other, a problem when you run a fixed price chain at just ¥100. 
Most (except Seria Co Ltd (2782 JP)) have reacted by introducing new, higher priced lines led by Daiso.
Watts, the smallest chain, is now catching up and higher priced lines will make up a third of stock by 2027.


PAL GROUP Holdings Co., Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Pal Group posted record sales in FY2022 partly because fashion retail recovered but mostly because of it has a huge hit on its hands: variety store 3Coins.</li>
<li>Cheap variety stores have always been popular and are becoming even more so as prices rise and people spend more on the home.</li>
<li>3Coins has doubled sales in 2 years but expects continued strong growth going forward. With fashion sales also improving, Pal Group is one of few solid bets in lifestyle retailing.</li>
</ul>


Pal Group posted record sales in FY2022 partly because fashion retail recovered but mostly because of it has a huge hit on its hands: variety store 3Coins.
Cheap variety stores have always been popular and are becoming even more so as prices rise and people spend more on the home.
3Coins has doubled sales in 2 years but expects continued strong growth going forward. With fashion sales also improving, Pal Group is one of few solid bets in lifestyle retailing.


<ul>
<li>The 100 Yen shop model looked in danger when inflation began to bite and labour costs surged but the sector continues to expand</li>
<li>Their fixed price model meant there was little leeway to offset higher costs through higher prices but a survey shows 90% of respondents visited a Daiso store recently.</li>
<li>While Daiso has adapted quickly and looks to have a bright future, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seria-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12989:1" rel="noopener">Seria Co Ltd (2782 JP)</a> refuses to adapt and has seen profits plummet.</li>
</ul>


The 100 Yen shop model looked in danger when inflation began to bite and labour costs surged but the sector continues to expand
Their fixed price model meant there was little leeway to offset higher costs through higher prices but a survey shows 90% of respondents visited a Daiso store recently.
While Daiso has adapted quickly and looks to have a bright future, Seria Co Ltd (2782 JP) refuses to adapt and has seen profits plummet.


100 Yen Shops to Hit ¥1 Trillion This Year but Seria's Model Squeezing Profits

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Low demand and slightly higher unemployment during the pandemic dampened the rising cost of part-time employees but that short respite is now over. </li>
<li>Hourly wages hit a new high in August and are set to rise further in coming months, renewing pressure on sectors like hospitality, retailing and logistics.</li>
<li>Retailers with high ratios of part-time wages such as the 100 Yen retailers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seria-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12989:1" rel="noopener">Seria Co Ltd (2782 JP)</a> and apparel retailers, will be hit particularly hard.</li>
</ul>


Low demand and slightly higher unemployment during the pandemic dampened the rising cost of part-time employees but that short respite is now over. 
Hourly wages hit a new high in August and are set to rise further in coming months, renewing pressure on sectors like hospitality, retailing and logistics.
Retailers with high ratios of part-time wages such as the 100 Yen retailers like Seria Co Ltd (2782 JP) and apparel retailers, will be hit particularly hard.


New Highs for Part-Time Wages a Worry for Japan's Retailers

Japan

Seria Co., Ltd. operates 100 yen chain stores nationwide.   The Company also operates franchise business.  Seria's main product line includes household goods and snacks.

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Seria Co Ltd (2782 JP)

TOPIX Market Consultation: Wider Next-Gen Universe in a Couple of Years; But Stocks Moving Already

JPX has commenced a market consultation that could result in 38 adds and 447 deletions for the index in Oct 2026. There are a lot of high impact...

Brian Freitas

Watts Finally Reacts to Margin Squeeze

Japanese ¥100 Shop chains are grappling with increased costs and wages, prompting some to introduce higher priced lines. Watts plans to have one...

Michael Causton

Pal Group's 3Coins: Coining It

Pal's record sales in FY2022 were driven by its variety chain 3Coins, which has grown fast and is expected to continue to do so, making Pal Group...

Michael Causton

100 Yen Shops to Hit ¥1 Trillion This Year but Seria's Model Squeezing Profits

Seria has always extracted the highest profits from the 100 Yen sector even as its larger competitor, Daiso, grew faster. Now, with labour and...

Michael Causton

New Highs for Part-Time Wages a Worry for Japan's Retailers

Wage growth slowed during the pandemic in Japan but is now relentlessly on the rise again. Retailers in particular are vulnerable, especially those...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TOPIX Market Consultation: Wider Next-Gen Universe in a Couple of Years; But Stocks Moving Already

JPX has commenced a market consultation that could result in 38 adds and 447 deletions for the index in Oct 2026. There are a lot of high impact...

Brian Freitas

Watts Finally Reacts to Margin Squeeze

​Japanese ¥100 Shop chains are grappling with increased costs and wages, prompting some to introduce higher priced lines. Watts plans to have one...

Michael Causton

Pal Group's 3Coins: Coining It

​Pal's record sales in FY2022 were driven by its variety chain 3Coins, which has grown fast and is expected to continue to do so, making Pal Group...

Michael Causton

100 Yen Shops to Hit ¥1 Trillion This Year but Seria's Model Squeezing Profits

Seria has always extracted the highest profits from the 100 Yen sector even as its larger competitor, Daiso, grew faster. Now, with labour and...

Michael Causton

New Highs for Part-Time Wages a Worry for Japan's Retailers

Wage growth slowed during the pandemic in Japan but is now relentlessly on the rise again. Retailers in particular are vulnerable, especially those...

Michael Causton

Japanese ¥100 Shop chains are grappling with increased costs and wages, prompting some to introduce higher priced lines. Watts plans to have one...

Pal's record sales in FY2022 were driven by its variety chain 3Coins, which has grown fast and is expected to continue to do so, making Pal Group...