APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4paradigm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34465:1" rel="noopener">4Paradigm (1764934D HK)</a> is looking to raise up to US$144m in its Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$600m.</li>
<li>4P is a platform-centric AI enterprise solutions provider. It was the largest player by revenue in the platform-centric decision-making AI market in China in 2022, as per CIC.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we covered the company’s performance and refiling updates. In this note, we will cover the firm’s PHIP updates, peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



4Paradigm (1764934D HK) is looking to raise up to US$144m in its Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$600m.
4P is a platform-centric AI enterprise solutions provider. It was the largest player by revenue in the platform-centric decision-making AI market in China in 2022, as per CIC.
In our previous notes, we covered the company’s performance and refiling updates. In this note, we will cover the firm’s PHIP updates, peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.


4Paradigm IPO - PHIP Updates, Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4paradigm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34465:1" rel="noopener">4Paradigm (1764934D HK)</a>, a leader in enterprise artificial intelligence (AI) in China, is pre-marketing a US$150-200 million HKEx IPO.</li>
<li>In <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/4paradigm-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:112776" rel="noopener">4Paradigm IPO: The Bull Case</a></em></strong>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on Sage Platform’s rapid slowdown, high customer concentration risk, recent gross margin pressure, FCF burn, rising cash collection cycle and BIS entity list designation. </li>
</ul>



4Paradigm (1764934D HK), a leader in enterprise artificial intelligence (AI) in China, is pre-marketing a US$150-200 million HKEx IPO.
In 4Paradigm IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on Sage Platform’s rapid slowdown, high customer concentration risk, recent gross margin pressure, FCF burn, rising cash collection cycle and BIS entity list designation. 


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> is a potential deletion in December and that could result in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a> being added to the index.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.36% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$845m. Passives will need to trade over 1x ADV on both stocks.</li>
<li>There is a very small impact on the fair value of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> 2023 dividend futures but there will be a larger impact on the dividend futures expiring in 2024.</li>
</ul>



Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) is a potential deletion in December and that could result in China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK) being added to the index.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.36% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$845m. Passives will need to trade over 1x ADV on both stocks.
There is a very small impact on the fair value of the HSCEI 2023 dividend futures but there will be a larger impact on the dividend futures expiring in 2024.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: China Unicom (762) Could Replace Zhongsheng (881)

<ul>
<li>With no stocks in inclusion or deletion zone, we do not expect any constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in December.</li>
<li>Capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of a touch below 1% and that will result in a round-trip trade of US$255m.</li>
<li>The impact on the stocks is relatively small for now but that could increase till the end of November when the stocks will be capped.</li>
</ul>


With no stocks in inclusion or deletion zone, we do not expect any constituent changes for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December.
Capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of a touch below 1% and that will result in a round-trip trade of US$255m.
The impact on the stocks is relatively small for now but that could increase till the end of November when the stocks will be capped.


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade of US$255m in December

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4paradigm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34465:1" rel="noopener">4Paradigm (1764934D HK)</a>, a leader in enterprise artificial intelligence (AI) in China, is pre-marketing a US$150-200 million HKEx IPO.  </li>
<li>4Paradigm was the largest player by revenue in China’s platform-centric decision-making AI market with a market share of 22.6% in 2022, according to CIC. </li>
<li>The bull case rests on the success in increasing key account customer numbers, net dollar expansion rates, improving revenue visibility, strong growth in application development services and reducing loss margin.</li>
</ul>



4Paradigm (1764934D HK), a leader in enterprise artificial intelligence (AI) in China, is pre-marketing a US$150-200 million HKEx IPO.  
4Paradigm was the largest player by revenue in China’s platform-centric decision-making AI market with a market share of 22.6% in 2022, according to CIC. 
The bull case rests on the success in increasing key account customer numbers, net dollar expansion rates, improving revenue visibility, strong growth in application development services and reducing loss margin.


China

Kingsoft Corporation Ltd. develops and markets computer software.  The Company develops role-playing computer games and security, word processing, and spreadsheet software.

Hundsun Technologies Inc develops application software for security firms, commercial banks, fund management firms, and other industries.  The Company also sells computer hardware and provides system integration services.

Yonyou Network Technology Co., Ltd. develops and markets enterprise-wide business applications software, including financial, web-based, management, and security development software. The Company also offers training programs.

Kingdee International Software Group Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and sells enterprise management software, e-commerce application software and middleware software.  The Company also provides internet-based services and setting up e-commerce platforms for enterprises. In addition, Kingdee provides solution consulting and technical support services.

Beijing Venustech Inc. provides a variety of information security products, information security services and information security solutions.  The Company's products and services are intrusion detection systems, intrusion prevention systems, firewalls, real-time monitoring and security management certification training services.

Jiangsu Hoperun Software Company Limited provides software outsourcing services for professional fields. The Company's main products include supply chain management software, intelligent terminal embedded software, and smart grid IT software outsourcing services.

Glodon Company Limited develops application softwares for basic construction industry. The Company's products include construction engineering cost management software and project cost management software. The Company also provides related training and consulting services.

China National Software & Service Co., Ltd designs, develops, and integrates application software used for the taxation, railway telecommunication, military, commercial aviation, and financial industries.  The Company also designs Chinasoft Linux operating system and develops language conversion software to support Chinese, English, and Japanese

Kingnet Network Co. Ltd. is a technology company involved in the development of social, browser, online games and mobile gaming.

YGSOFT Inc. develops financial and management software products for electricity industry. The company also provides computer software and hardware system integration and technology consulting services.

Technology One Limited is an Australian-based company that is engaged in the development, marketing, sales, implementation, support, and distribution of financial management and enterprise software solutions. The Company has operations in New Zealand, the United Kingdom, the South Pacific, and Malaysia.

International Games System Co., Ltd. plans, designs, develops, manufactures, and markets software and hardware for arcade games, PC games, and Internet on-line games.

Varonis Systems, Inc. designs and develops data security software solutions. The Company offers data management systems to organize, manage, and protect unstructured and semi-structured data such as documents, spreadsheets, presentations, media files, and other business data. Varonis Systems operates worldwide.

Blackbaud, Inc. provides software and related services designed specifically for non-profit organizations. The Company's products and services enable non-profit organizations to increase donations, reduce fundraising costs, improve communication with constituents, manage their finances, and optimize internal operations.

Qualys, Inc. provides information technology security risk and compliance management solutions. The Company offers products for vulnerability management, policy compliance, web application scanning, malware detection, and associated security products. Qualys conducts business in the United States.

CommVault Systems, Inc. provides data management software applications and related services. The Company develops, markets, and sells a suite of data management software applications designed to protect and manage data throughout its lifecycle.

Trend Micro Incorporated develops and markets anti-virus computer software and internet security software.  The Company also sells its products in the United States, Europe, and Asia.

Tata Elxsi Limited manufactures computers and workstations besides providing system design, software development and integration services. The Group supplies its products to a number of industries, including the automotive, metals, consumer products, finance, IT & Communications, energy, chemicals, engineering, pharmaceuticals, entertainment and agro industries.

ACI Worldwide, Inc. develops, markets, and supports software products for the global electronics funds transfer market.  The Company's products are used to process transactions involving credit cards, debit cards, smartcards, home banking services, checks, and automated clearing and settlement.

SQUARE ENIX HOLDINGS CO., LTD. develops and sells entertainment software for home video game consoles including Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy series. The Company also publishes books such as informational guide books for its game software, and comic magazines and books.  Additionally, Square Enix sells character goods and stationery items from its software products.

SenseTime Group Inc. offers information technology services. The Company develops artificial intelligence software products, computer vision software products, and other products. SenseTime Group provides its services throughout China.

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SenseTime Group (20 HK)

4Paradigm IPO - PHIP Updates, Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation

4Paradigm (1764934D HK) is looking to raise up to US$144m in its Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$600m.

Ethan Aw

4Paradigm IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on Sage Platform’s rapid slowdown, high customer concentration risk, recent gross margin pressure, FCF burn, rising cash...

Arun George

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: China Unicom (762) Could Replace Zhongsheng (881)

China Unicom could replace Zhongsheng Holdings in the HSCEI in Dec. Passives need to trade over 1x ADV on both stocks. There will be the usual...

Brian Freitas

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade of US$255m in December

We do not see any constituents changing in December. Capping will lead to a one-way turnover of 1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$255m....

Brian Freitas

4Paradigm IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on the success in increasing key customer numbers, net dollar expansion rates, improving visibility, strong growth in...

Arun George

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