Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Vedanta, Cardinal Res., Japan Retail Fund, HSBC, Opticomm, Tiffany/LVMH

Travis Lundy

In an earlier insight I said that the Rights Offering of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> looked like a kind of an IPO as people were being asked to put in money to create a new company with new owners.I think that was probably a misnomer. It had the possibility of being a Virtual IPO due to the fact that existing SMM public shareholders could put in money of their own volition, and buy shares at what was a steep discount on a TERP basis to where they were trading before. The issue was that some people were going to get shares without putting up new money. They were just going to receive them. For that, it is a bit like a Scheme of Introduction. And that is the way it has turned out. Today quite late, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> reported the <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Announcement%20Rights%20Issue%20Results.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=630853" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Results of the Rights Issue</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1087:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP)</a> shareholders are going to get a lot of it. Today Sembcorp Industries <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Proposed%20Distribution-Confirmation%20of%20Record%20Date%20and%20Distribution%20Ratio.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=630876" target="_blank" rel="noopener">confirmed</a> the distribution to be 4.911 shares per 1 share of Sembcorp Industries held (subject to minor rounding differentials). Investors now have one more day to buy SCI with SMM distribution attached. On Wednesday, SCI shares go ex- the distribution. On Friday, the SMM Rights Shares trade. My opinion on this situation has been clear. Lots of links below.Now we wait. But as always, more below the fold.<hr><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="3" style="width: 723.636px;"><h3>Recent Insights on the SCI/SMM Recap-Demerger Situation</h3></td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 77.2727px;">Date</td>
<td style="width: 127.273px;">Company</td>
<td style="width: 477.273px;">Insight Title</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 77.2727px;">9 June 2020</td>
<td style="width: 127.273px;">Sembcorp Inds</td>
<td style="width: 477.273px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sembcorp-marine-and-sci-a-gloriously-messy-recap-and-de-merger-big-win-for-sci" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40153" rel="noopener">SembCorp Marine and SCI - A Gloriously Messy Recap and De-Merger - Big Win for SCI</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 77.2727px;">9 Jun 2020</td>
<td style="width: 127.273px;">sembcorp marine</td>
<td style="width: 477.273px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sembcorp-marine-rights-offer-cast-away" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40164" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine Rights Offer - Cast Away</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 77.2727px;">30 Jun 2020</td>
<td style="width: 127.273px;">Sembcorp Inds</td>
<td style="width: 477.273px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thinking-about-sembcorp-industries-future-be-bigly-bullish" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40809" rel="noopener">Thinking About Sembcorp Industries' Future - Be Bigly Bullish</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 77.2727px;">24 Jul 2020</td>
<td style="width: 127.273px;">Sembcorp Inds</td>
<td style="width: 477.273px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sembcorp-restructuring-details-timing-announced-the-arithmetic-is-compelling" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41504" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Restructuring Details &amp; Timing Announced - The Arithmetic Is Compelling</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 77.2727px;">11 Aug 2020</td>
<td style="width: 127.273px;">sembcorp marine</td>
<td style="width: 477.273px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sembcorp-marine-rights-decided-and-virtual-ipo-set-still-avoid" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine Rights Decided And “Virtual IPO” Set (Still Avoid)</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 77.2727px;">3 Sep 2020</td>
<td style="width: 127.273px;">Sembcorp Inds</td>
<td style="width: 477.273px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sembcorp-last-chance-before" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42886" rel="noopener">Sembcorp - Last Chance Before...</a> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>

In an earlier insight I said that the Rights Offering of Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) looked like a kind of an IPO as people were being asked to put in money to create a new company with new owners.I think that was probably a misnomer. It had the possibility of being a Virtual IPO due to the fact that existing SMM public shareholders could put in money of their own volition, and buy shares at what was a steep discount on a TERP basis to where they were trading before. The issue was that some people were going to get shares without putting up new money. They were just going to receive them. For that, it is a bit like a Scheme of Introduction. And that is the way it has turned out. Today quite late, Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) reported the Results of the Rights Issue. Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP) shareholders are going to get a lot of it. Today Sembcorp Industries confirmed the distribution to be 4.911 shares per 1 share of Sembcorp Industries held (subject to minor rounding differentials). Investors now have one more day to buy SCI with SMM distribution attached. On Wednesday, SCI shares go ex- the distribution. On Friday, the SMM Rights Shares trade. My opinion on this situation has been clear. Lots of links below.Now we wait. But as always, more below the fold.
Recent Insights on the SCI/SMM Recap-Demerger Situation

Date
Company
Insight Title


9 June 2020
Sembcorp Inds

SembCorp Marine and SCI - A Gloriously Messy Recap and De-Merger - Big Win for SCI 


9 Jun 2020
sembcorp marine

Sembcorp Marine Rights Offer - Cast Away 


30 Jun 2020
Sembcorp Inds

Thinking About Sembcorp Industries' Future - Be Bigly Bullish 


24 Jul 2020
Sembcorp Inds

Sembcorp Restructuring Details &amp; Timing Announced - The Arithmetic Is Compelling 


11 Aug 2020
sembcorp marine
Sembcorp Marine Rights Decided And “Virtual IPO” Set (Still Avoid)


3 Sep 2020
Sembcorp Inds
Sembcorp - Last Chance Before... 



Sembcorp Marine Rights Issue Results : Looks Like a Scheme of Introduction

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
Corrigenda: There is an error in this Insight. Please note the correction.
Correction: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-sti-macro-bear-pressure-mounting-with-tactical-relief-from-2-400" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42932" rel="noopener">Singapore STI Macro Bear Pressure Mounting with Tactical Relief from 2,400</a> Insight is improperly attributed to Thomas Monaco. That Insight was published by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-schroeder" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:381" rel="noopener">Thomas Schroeder</a>.
</div>
<hr>
<div class="content-highlight">
The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma.</a>
</div>
<h3>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h3>
In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kalbe-farma-klbf-ij-a-nutritional-spin-off" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42533" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) - A Nutritional Spin-Off?,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits South East Asia's largest pharmaceutical company in light of news that the company is considering spinning off its Nutritionals division to raise around US$500m. 
In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/link-net-tbk-pt-link-ij-summer-migration-at-last" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42829" rel="noopener">Link Net Tbk Pt (LINK IJ) - Summer Migration at Last,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits Indonesia's highest quality high-speed broadband provider following a call with managment, which focused on its recent results, as well as the decision to build its own pole infrastructure to carry its fibre.  
In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singtel-make-the-call" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42900" rel="noopener">SingTel: Make The Call,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a> zeros in on Singapore's leading telecom provider and finds deep value appearing in the stock.
In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scg-packaging-ipo-initiation-shrink-wrapping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42967" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging IPO Initiation: Shrink Wrapping,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/arun-george" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1680" rel="noopener">Arun George</a> takes a first look at the upcoming spin-off from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-cement-pcl-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2589:1" rel="noopener">Siam Cement (SCC TB)</a> and IPO of SCG Packaging, which will get a lot of investor focus given ist size and share in of the packaging market in SE Asia. 
In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sembcorp-last-chance-before" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42886" rel="noopener">Sembcorp - Last Chance Before...</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> looks at the enormously dilutive rights issue and de-merger of Semcorp Marine. 
 In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-sti-macro-bear-pressure-mounting-with-tactical-relief-from-2-400" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42932" rel="noopener">Singapore STI Macro Bear Pressure Mounting with Tactical Relief from 2,400,</a> technical analysis specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1716" rel="noopener">Thomas J. Monaco</a> works his technical magic on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ftse-straits-times-index-sti" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22902:1" rel="noopener">FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) (STI INDEX).</a>
In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ratch-3q20-earnings-to-improve-from-overseas-performance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42789" rel="noopener">RATCH: 3Q20 Earnings to Improve from Overseas Performance</a>, our friend at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> report back on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ratch-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15338:1" rel="noopener">Ratchaburi Electric (RATCH TB)</a> post its more recent analyst meeting, which left a positive impression.  
In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/b-work-good-dividend-yield-makes-an-attractive-investment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42782" rel="noopener">B-WORK: Good Dividend Yield Makes an Attractive Investment,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bualuang-office-leasehold-real-estate-investment-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26187:1" rel="noopener">Bualuang Office Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust (B-WORK TB)</a> and takes a positive view. 
In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rbf-the-excessive-outperformance-may-come-to-a-halt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42788" rel="noopener">RBF: The Excessive Outperformance May Come to a Halt,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> upgrades his recommendation on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/r-b-food-supply-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28949:1" rel="noopener">R&amp;B Food Supply PCL (RBF TB)</a> to HOLD from SELL based on raising his target price of THB9.25 from THB8.70, implying a downside of 9% from the current price. 
In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sti-acquisition-benefits-are-not-fully-priced-in-strong-buy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42785" rel="noopener">STI: Acquisition Benefits Are Not Fully Priced In, Strong BUY,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stonehenge-inter-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27353:1" rel="noopener">Stonehenge Inter (STI TB)</a> with a BUY recommendation based on his target of THB10.10, implying an upside of 31% from the current share price. 
In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dod-strong-performance-deserves-a-re-rating" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42676" rel="noopener">DOD: Strong Performance Deserves a Re-Rating,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> upgrades his recommendation on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dod-biotech-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26179:1" rel="noopener">DOD Biotech PCL (DOD TB)</a> to BUY from HOLD based on raising his target price to Bt10.70 from Bt7.55, implying an upside of 26% from the current price. 
In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vranda-the-calm-before-challenging-times" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42781" rel="noopener">VRANDA: The Calm Before Challenging Times,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> has a SELL recommendation on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/veranda-resort-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29176:1" rel="noopener">Veranda Resort PCL (VRANDA TB)</a> based on a target price of THB4.30, implying a downside of 26% from the current share price. 
In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ace-results-are-not-stunning-stay-on-hold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42784" rel="noopener">ACE: Results Are Not Stunning, Stay on HOLD,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> upgrades his recommendation on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/absolute-clean-energy-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29155:1" rel="noopener">Absolute Clean Energy PCL (ACE TB)</a> to HOLD from SELL based on raising his target price to THB3.49 from THB2.64, implying an upside of 8% from the current price. 
In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/spa-weak-demand-continues-to-pressure-2h20-earnings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42813" rel="noopener">SPA: Weak Demand Continues to Pressure 2H20 Earnings,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> downgrades <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-wellness-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3765:1" rel="noopener">Siam Wellness Group (SPA TB)</a> from BUY to HOLD rating and cut his target price by 31% to THB6.6 to factor in weakening earnings momentum in 2H20. 
In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gunkul-new-60mw-power-plant-to-drive-2h20-earnings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42820" rel="noopener">GUNKUL: New 60MW Power Plant to Drive 2H20 Earnings,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> maintain a BUY rating on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gunkul-engineering-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15272:1" rel="noopener">Gunkul Engineering (GUNKUL TB)</a> with a target price of THB3.24 derived using DCF method (WACC 7.8% and TG 1%) implying 11.4x FY20E PER or 0.5x relative PER to Thai utility sector. 
<h3>Sector and Thematic Insights</h3>
In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/telecom-review-sept-2020-ais-and-asiasoft-get-aggressive-on-gaming" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41022" rel="noopener">Telecom Review (Sept 2020): AIS and AsiaSoft Get Aggressive on Gaming,</a> our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> takes a look at gaming, specifically related to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asiasoft-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5429:1" rel="noopener">Asiasoft Corp (AS TB)</a> in Thailand.


Corrigenda: There is an error in this Insight. Please note the correction.
Correction: The Singapore STI Macro Bear Pressure Mounting with Tactical Relief from 2,400 Insight is improperly attributed to Thomas Monaco. That Insight was published by Thomas Schroeder.



The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in ASEAN@Smartkarma.

Equity Bottom-Up Insights
In Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) - A Nutritional Spin-Off?, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits South East Asia's largest pharmaceutical company in light of news that the company is considering spinning off its Nutritionals division to raise around US$500m. 
In Link Net Tbk Pt (LINK IJ) - Summer Migration at Last, Angus Mackintosh revisits Indonesia's highest quality high-speed broadband provider following a call with managment, which focused on its recent results, as well as the decision to build its own pole infrastructure to carry its fibre.  
In SingTel: Make The Call, David Blennerhassett zeros in on Singapore's leading telecom provider and finds deep value appearing in the stock.
In SCG Packaging IPO Initiation: Shrink Wrapping, Arun George takes a first look at the upcoming spin-off from Siam Cement (SCC TB) and IPO of SCG Packaging, which will get a lot of investor focus given ist size and share in of the packaging market in SE Asia. 
In Sembcorp - Last Chance Before... Travis Lundy looks at the enormously dilutive rights issue and de-merger of Semcorp Marine. 
 In Singapore STI Macro Bear Pressure Mounting with Tactical Relief from 2,400, technical analysis specialist Thomas J. Monaco works his technical magic on the FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) (STI INDEX).
In RATCH: 3Q20 Earnings to Improve from Overseas Performance, our friend at Country Group report back on Ratchaburi Electric (RATCH TB) post its more recent analyst meeting, which left a positive impression.  
In B-WORK: Good Dividend Yield Makes an Attractive Investment, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA revisits Bualuang Office Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust (B-WORK TB) and takes a positive view. 
In RBF: The Excessive Outperformance May Come to a Halt, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA upgrades his recommendation on R&amp;B Food Supply PCL (RBF TB) to HOLD from SELL based on raising his target price of THB9.25 from THB8.70, implying a downside of 9% from the current price. 
In STI: Acquisition Benefits Are Not Fully Priced In, Strong BUY, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA revisits Stonehenge Inter (STI TB) with a BUY recommendation based on his target of THB10.10, implying an upside of 31% from the current share price. 
In DOD: Strong Performance Deserves a Re-Rating, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA upgrades his recommendation on DOD Biotech PCL (DOD TB) to BUY from HOLD based on raising his target price to Bt10.70 from Bt7.55, implying an upside of 26% from the current price. 
In VRANDA: The Calm Before Challenging Times, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA has a SELL recommendation on Veranda Resort PCL (VRANDA TB) based on a target price of THB4.30, implying a downside of 26% from the current share price. 
In ACE: Results Are Not Stunning, Stay on HOLD, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA upgrades his recommendation on Absolute Clean Energy PCL (ACE TB) to HOLD from SELL based on raising his target price to THB3.49 from THB2.64, implying an upside of 8% from the current price. 
In SPA: Weak Demand Continues to Pressure 2H20 Earnings, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA downgrades Siam Wellness Group (SPA TB) from BUY to HOLD rating and cut his target price by 31% to THB6.6 to factor in weakening earnings momentum in 2H20. 
In GUNKUL: New 60MW Power Plant to Drive 2H20 Earnings, Country Group maintain a BUY rating on Gunkul Engineering (GUNKUL TB) with a target price of THB3.24 derived using DCF method (WACC 7.8% and TG 1%) implying 11.4x FY20E PER or 0.5x relative PER to Thai utility sector. 
Sector and Thematic Insights
In Telecom Review (Sept 2020): AIS and AsiaSoft Get Aggressive on Gaming, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA takes a look at gaming, specifically related to Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) and Asiasoft Corp (AS TB) in Thailand. 

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkama - Kalbe Spin-Off, SingTel's Deep Value, and Thailand's Gamers

2 September 2020 was the last day for investors in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> ("SMM") to exercise and pay for their rights to purchase 5 new shares for every 1 held at S$0.20/share in what is The Grand Affair of the...
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/156/636/original/Screenshot%202020-09-02%20at%207.09.36%20PM.png?1599045003" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="156636"></figure>

<div class="content-highlight">
First, sembcorp marine does a 5:1 rights offering. Parent company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1087:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP)</a> takes up all its rights, backstops more of them, then Temasek backstops the rest of the Rights Offering. Once complete, one-time parent SCI distributes ALL of its sembcorp marine shares resulting from the Rights Offering to its own shareholders. This amounts to ~4.279 to ~4.911 sembcorp marine shares per SCI share - variable because one does not know how much of the backstop will be used.
Because of the nature of this transaction, I have argued this is something akin to a re-IPO of sembcorp marine. 
</div>
Next stop, information about the disposition of the "excess" rights application, if any, and on 9 September SCI will trade without rights to receive shares in sembcorp marine. The price of SCI shares will be revised sharply downward on the morning of the 9th to account for the value of the SMM shares, which then trade separately starting the <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/OIS.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=627790" target="_blank" rel="noopener">11th of September</a> (p16), theoretically.
While SCI is trading better now than before, I remain somewhat surprised at how the shares have been trading given what appear to be people's opinions and the framework of ownership.
The questions investors looking at this situation should have been asking are...
<ol>
<li>What is the FUTURE SEMBCORP worth?</li>
<li>Where do you want to own FUTURE sembcorp marine?</li>
<li>Where do you think your FELLOW owners of SMM will be willing to sell it?</li>
<li>If you will receive FUTURE sembcorp marine, where would you be happy selling it?</li>
</ol>
My consistent recommendation has been to own sembcorp industries and to NOT OWN sembcorp marine. If you really like SMM, you will get a lot of it by owning SCI. And if you really, REALLY like SMM at S$0.20/share, more than a few times during the rights trading period at more than a few times you could have bought 2.5-6.0% of the future float of SMM by lifting the offer on the rights at the minimum tradable price (someone did once, then regretted it I think).
I expect the complication may be an obstruction for some. I don't think it should be.
Much more below the fold.

2 September 2020 was the last day for investors in Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) ("SMM") to exercise and pay for their rights to purchase 5 new shares for every 1 held at S$0.20/share in what is The Grand Affair of the...



First, sembcorp marine does a 5:1 rights offering. Parent company Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP) takes up all its rights, backstops more of them, then Temasek backstops the rest of the Rights Offering. Once complete, one-time parent SCI distributes ALL of its sembcorp marine shares resulting from the Rights Offering to its own shareholders. This amounts to ~4.279 to ~4.911 sembcorp marine shares per SCI share - variable because one does not know how much of the backstop will be used.
Because of the nature of this transaction, I have argued this is something akin to a re-IPO of sembcorp marine. 

Next stop, information about the disposition of the "excess" rights application, if any, and on 9 September SCI will trade without rights to receive shares in sembcorp marine. The price of SCI shares will be revised sharply downward on the morning of the 9th to account for the value of the SMM shares, which then trade separately starting the 11th of September (p16), theoretically.
While SCI is trading better now than before, I remain somewhat surprised at how the shares have been trading given what appear to be people's opinions and the framework of ownership.
The questions investors looking at this situation should have been asking are...

What is the FUTURE SEMBCORP worth?
Where do you want to own FUTURE sembcorp marine?
Where do you think your FELLOW owners of SMM will be willing to sell it?
If you will receive FUTURE sembcorp marine, where would you be happy selling it?

My consistent recommendation has been to own sembcorp industries and to NOT OWN sembcorp marine. If you really like SMM, you will get a lot of it by owning SCI. And if you really, REALLY like SMM at S$0.20/share, more than a few times during the rights trading period at more than a few times you could have bought 2.5-6.0% of the future float of SMM by lifting the offer on the rights at the minimum tradable price (someone did once, then regretted it I think).
I expect the complication may be an obstruction for some. I don't think it should be.
Much more below the fold.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

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Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1087:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP)</a> shows some compelling bullish chart points to set up a buy on minor weakness after the breakout above 1.67 that now represents pivot support and the bull/bear line in the sand and the level that ignited the impulsive rally.Trendline and price resistance meet near the 2.05/07 level, representing the level to clear to gain bull traction.Buy volumes need to improve on forward up days as sell volume spikes are still a concern near term and why we see a pullback in the offing.Pullback support comes in near the 8.0 break point of the micro bull wedge and the buy zone down to 1.75 with a stop below pivot support. Macro bull targets noted on the way up.

Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP) shows some compelling bullish chart points to set up a buy on minor weakness after the breakout above 1.67 that now represents pivot support and the bull/bear line in the sand and the level that ignited the impulsive rally.Trendline and price resistance meet near the 2.05/07 level, representing the level to clear to gain bull traction.Buy volumes need to improve on forward up days as sell volume spikes are still a concern near term and why we see a pullback in the offing.Pullback support comes in near the 8.0 break point of the micro bull wedge and the buy zone down to 1.75 with a stop below pivot support. Macro bull targets noted on the way up.

Singapore

Sembcorp Industries Ltd provides utilities and integrated services for industrial sites such as power, gas, steam, water, wastewater treatment and other on-site services. The Company's businesses also include marine & offshore engineering and urban development comprising industrial parks and business, commercial and residential spaces.

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Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP)

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