Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 27th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD27.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, Goodman, Santos.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 27th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD27.6bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, Goodman, Santos.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 27th): Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, Goodman, Santos

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)</a> IE considers Paine Schwartz Partners’ A$3.20 offer fair and reasonable as it is towards the upper end of its A$2.62-3.28 valuation range. </li>
<li>The scheme requires China SAMR and European Commission approvals. SAMR approval poses a timing risk but the scheduling of the scheme meeting reflects PSP's confidence in securing the approvals.</li>
<li>While not a knockout bid, the profit warning should help sway the retail vote in favour of the scheme. At the last close, the gross spread was 8.1%.</li>
</ul>


The Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU) IE considers Paine Schwartz Partners’ A$3.20 offer fair and reasonable as it is towards the upper end of its A$2.62-3.28 valuation range. 
The scheme requires China SAMR and European Commission approvals. SAMR approval poses a timing risk but the scheduling of the scheme meeting reflects PSP's confidence in securing the approvals.
While not a knockout bid, the profit warning should help sway the retail vote in favour of the scheme. At the last close, the gross spread was 8.1%.


Costa Group (CGC AU): Wide Spread Ahead of the 30 January Vote

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)</a> has entered a scheme implementation deed with Paine Schwartz Partners (PSP) led consortium at A$3.20 per share. </li>
<li>The key conditions are regulatory and shareholder approval. China SAMR regulatory approval poses a risk, primarily related to timing. Costa anticipates completion in 1Q24.</li>
<li>The headcount test related to the retail vote remains a risk. The risk/reward is unfavourable as the deal break downside (10%+) outweighs the offer’s upside (3.6% at last close).  </li>
</ul>



Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Paine Schwartz Partners (PSP) led consortium at A$3.20 per share. 
The key conditions are regulatory and shareholder approval. China SAMR regulatory approval poses a risk, primarily related to timing. Costa anticipates completion in 1Q24.
The headcount test related to the retail vote remains a risk. The risk/reward is unfavourable as the deal break downside (10%+) outweighs the offer’s upside (3.6% at last close).  


Costa Group (CGC AU): Binding Proposal Comes with Risks

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)</a>  has disclosed a revised non-binding indicative proposal from Paine Schwartz Partners at A$3.20 per share, 9.6% lower than the previous offer on a like-for-like basis. </li>
<li>The weak CY23 outlook impacted the debt that could be taken on to meet the IRR hurdles of the previous offer. The revised offer is the best and final offer.</li>
<li>The Board faces a dilemma as the offer is light, but some shareholders will want the Board to accept as trading volatility making Costa more suited to the private market.</li>
</ul>



Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)  has disclosed a revised non-binding indicative proposal from Paine Schwartz Partners at A$3.20 per share, 9.6% lower than the previous offer on a like-for-like basis. 
The weak CY23 outlook impacted the debt that could be taken on to meet the IRR hurdles of the previous offer. The revised offer is the best and final offer.
The Board faces a dilemma as the offer is light, but some shareholders will want the Board to accept as trading volatility making Costa more suited to the private market.


Costa Group (CGC AU): Paine Schwartz’s Final Proposal Poses a Dilemma

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)</a>  has disclosed an indicative non-binding proposal from Paine Schwartz Partners at A$3.50 per share (A$3.54 including potential interim dividend).</li>
<li>The Board has granted eight weeks of non-exclusive due diligence. The due diligence, which started on 6 June, ends on 1 August.</li>
<li>The offer price is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the current price of A$3.35, the gross spread is 4.5% (5.7% including dividend).</li>
</ul>



Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)  has disclosed an indicative non-binding proposal from Paine Schwartz Partners at A$3.50 per share (A$3.54 including potential interim dividend).
The Board has granted eight weeks of non-exclusive due diligence. The due diligence, which started on 6 June, ends on 1 August.
The offer price is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the current price of A$3.35, the gross spread is 4.5% (5.7% including dividend).


Costa Group (CGC AU): Paine Schwartz’s Indicative Proposal

Australia

Select Harvests Limited grows, processes, packages and distributes almonds from its almond orchards. The Company also packages and distributes edible nuts, dried fruits, seeds and natural health foods. Select Harvests also manufactures chemically based pelletized and grain based pesticide products including snail baits and rodenticides for the Australasian market.

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Select Harvests (SHV AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 27th): Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, Goodman, Santos

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, Goodman, Santos.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Costa Group (CGC AU): Wide Spread Ahead of the 30 January Vote

While China SAMR approval is an overhang, the scheduling of the vote reflects PSP's confidence in securing the approval. The profit warning should...

Arun George

Costa Group (CGC AU): Binding Proposal Comes with Risks

The timing of China SAMR approval and the headcount test are risks. The risk/reward is unfavourable as the deal break downside (10%+) outweighs the...

Arun George

Costa Group (CGC AU): Paine Schwartz’s Final Proposal Poses a Dilemma

Shares closed down 3.4% as progress to a binding proposal remains uncertain. The Board faces a dilemma as the offer is light, but some shareholders...

Arun George

Costa Group (CGC AU): Paine Schwartz’s Indicative Proposal

The offer price is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the current price of A$3.35, the gross spread is 4.5%...

Arun George

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