Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Sales volumes in gross floor area of newly sold homes in cities that imposed or extended the HPRs at the end of September and beginning of October show, with some exceptions, a clear negative trend, with the volume dynamics illustrated below. Here we are using weekly sales volume data from Fang-CREIS (note Xi'an included but only introduced HPRs in January):<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/021/306/original/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-19%20at%2017.01.36.png?1487676807" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="21306"></figure>Among Tier-2 cities in January, the cities with HPR saw the continued pattern of declines in volumes, although without the immediate impact…

Sales volumes in gross floor area of newly sold homes in cities that imposed or extended the HPRs at the end of September and beginning of October show, with some exceptions, a clear negative trend, with the volume dynamics illustrated below. Here we are using weekly sales volume data from Fang-CREIS (note Xi'an included but only introduced HPRs in January):Among Tier-2 cities in January, the cities with HPR saw the continued pattern of declines in volumes, although without the immediate impact…

China Property: Impact Of Policy Tightening More Visible In Sales Volumes

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
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Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Equity Bottom-Up

We recently screened the HKG and China markets for ideas with below market P/E ratios and Dividend Yields above 2% that traded more than US$1 mn per day.  This screen netted 207 names.We then screened for which companies have corporate governance scores over 70/100 from the Riedel Research Corporate Governance Scoring system.The RRG Corporate Governance system scores Emerging Market companies on 12 different criteria to measure board independence, alignment of interest with shareholders…

We recently screened the HKG and China markets for ideas with below market P/E ratios and Dividend Yields above 2% that traded more than US$1 mn per day.  This screen netted 207 names.We then screened for which companies have corporate governance scores over 70/100 from the Riedel Research Corporate Governance Scoring system.The RRG Corporate Governance system scores Emerging Market companies on 12 different criteria to measure board independence, alignment of interest with shareholders…

Actionable Value Ideas with Solid Corporate Governance in China and Hong Kong

After a couple of years of declining prices and low volumes relative to other cities, the market for residential new home sales in Sanya and on Hainan island may be starting to shine again, especially with a significant volume growth pickup, while many other cities are entering a down-cycle.

After a couple of years of declining prices and low volumes relative to other cities, the market for residential new home sales in Sanya and on Hainan island may be starting to shine again, especially with a significant volume growth pickup, while many other cities are entering a down-cycle.

China Property: A Turning Point For The Sunny Sanya And Hainan Island?

Which major Chinese cities are likely to outperform in 2017 on price growth/pickup in residential new home sales markets? In 2016 (Jan-Nov), we saw lower-tier spill-over cities near Tier-1 cities as top performers, followed by Hefei, Xiamen, Nanjing and Shenzhen, on a 12-month price growth basis. Which cities are worth watching in 2017?

Which major Chinese cities are likely to outperform in 2017 on price growth/pickup in residential new home sales markets? In 2016 (Jan-Nov), we saw lower-tier spill-over cities near Tier-1 cities as top performers, followed by Hefei, Xiamen, Nanjing and Shenzhen, on a 12-month price growth basis. Which cities are worth watching in 2017?

Chongqing comes up as the next 'lead city' in volume growth and price pickup in the 'commercial residential' new home sales market in China. The average performance of the city on a 12-month basis contrasts with a standout growth in volumes and pickup in prices in recent months (November data); the impact of latest January tightening measures is still to be seen, but the city has a good chance of becoming a relative outperformer in 2017.

Chongqing comes up as the next 'lead city' in volume growth and price pickup in the 'commercial residential' new home sales market in China. The average performance of the city on a 12-month basis contrasts with a standout growth in volumes and pickup in prices in recent months (November data); the impact of latest January tightening measures is still to be seen, but the city has a good chance of becoming a relative outperformer in 2017.

China

Seazen is a property developer in the Yangtze River Delta, focusing primarily on the development of residential properties and mixed-use complex projects.

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Seazen (Formerly Future Land) (1030 HK)

China Property: Impact Of Policy Tightening More Visible In Sales Volumes

Sales volumes in gross floor area of newly sold homes in cities that imposed or extended the HPRs at the end of September and beginning of October...

Robert Ciemniak

Actionable Value Ideas with Solid Corporate Governance in China and Hong Kong

We recently screened the HKG and China markets for ideas with below market P/E ratios and Dividend Yields above 2% that traded more than US$1 mn...

David Riedel

China Property: A Turning Point For The Sunny Sanya And Hainan Island?

After a couple of years of declining prices and low volumes relative to other cities, the market for residential new home sales in Sanya and on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: 2017 City Picks

Which major Chinese cities are likely to outperform in 2017 on price growth/pickup in residential new home sales markets? In 2016 (Jan-Nov), we saw...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: The Case of Chongqing

Chongqing comes up as the next 'lead city' in volume growth and price pickup in the 'commercial residential' new home sales market in China. The...

Robert Ciemniak

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