Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, ChartSmarter

Douglas Busch

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst

ChartSmarter

ChartSmarter is a service dedicated to the art of technical analysis.

On a daily basis we write up actionable ideas on a specific, major S&P sector on both the long and short side, in an easy yet thorough way. In the notes we give precise entries and exits, while looking to capture the "meat" of a trend.

Technical Analysis.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P 500 looks vulnerable. Maintain large cash positions for forseeable future.</li>
<li>US Dollar bull flagging and may put pressure on equities in near term.</li>
<li>Nikkei at inflection point. Bulls must stand up here to defend.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P 500 looks vulnerable. Maintain large cash positions for forseeable future.
US Dollar bull flagging and may put pressure on equities in near term.
Nikkei at inflection point. Bulls must stand up here to defend.


Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

Independent Stock Specific Research

BWS Financial Inc

BWS provides independent stock specific research focused on companies with distinct value that are going through a special situation where there is a tangible catalyst not priced in. The catalyst can be anything from new product, restructuring, M&A, management change, change in business strategy, etc. BWS’s focus is to understand the change and evaluate the potential return for investors.

BWS utilizes a self formed proprietary approach in discovering stocks by putting great emphasis on deep research. BWS does generate short recommendations following a similar criteria.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>SDRL enters the second quarter with drill ships undergoing special surveys and day rates slowly creeping higher. </li>
<li>The drill ship market has experienced an increase in day rates on the expectation stacked ships eventually become available. We do not believe this will ever be the case</li>
<li>We are leaving our 2024 earnings model unchanged and raising our 2025 adjusted EBITDA outlook to $677 million from $615 million</li>
</ul>


SDRL enters the second quarter with drill ships undergoing special surveys and day rates slowly creeping higher. 
The drill ship market has experienced an increase in day rates on the expectation stacked ships eventually become available. We do not believe this will ever be the case
We are leaving our 2024 earnings model unchanged and raising our 2025 adjusted EBITDA outlook to $677 million from $615 million


<ul>
<li>SDRL ended 2023 with in line results as the Company readies for a year filled with maintenance. The commentary surrounding market conditions has not changed greatly since third quarter results.</li>
<li>There is still a lack of new supply but being able to match available supply to operators’ demand calendar has become challenging</li>
<li>SDRL reported fourth quarter 2023 revenue of $408 million and operating income of $52 million, which were both in line with our estimate.</li>
</ul>


SDRL ended 2023 with in line results as the Company readies for a year filled with maintenance. The commentary surrounding market conditions has not changed greatly since third quarter results.
There is still a lack of new supply but being able to match available supply to operators’ demand calendar has become challenging
SDRL reported fourth quarter 2023 revenue of $408 million and operating income of $52 million, which were both in line with our estimate.


<ul>
<li>SDRL reported third quarter results exceeding expectations and announcing slight extensions to when near-term contracts would expire.</li>
<li>There had been minimal news from SDRL to expect contract extensions. SDRL’s peers had been reporting a slowing in contract activity.</li>
<li>The free cash flow SDRL is generating is being used for stock buy backs with the authorization doubled to a total of $500 million.</li>
</ul>


SDRL reported third quarter results exceeding expectations and announcing slight extensions to when near-term contracts would expire.
There had been minimal news from SDRL to expect contract extensions. SDRL’s peers had been reporting a slowing in contract activity.
The free cash flow SDRL is generating is being used for stock buy backs with the authorization doubled to a total of $500 million.


<ul>
<li>There has been little change in day rates since Seadrill (SDRL) reported second quarter results with the Company having two vessels with contracts expiring next month</li>
<li>The only news flow since SDRL reported second quarter results has been about the Company regularly buying back stock</li>
<li>The two vessels with contracts expiring are currently in different geographies</li>
</ul>


There has been little change in day rates since Seadrill (SDRL) reported second quarter results with the Company having two vessels with contracts expiring next month
The only news flow since SDRL reported second quarter results has been about the Company regularly buying back stock
The two vessels with contracts expiring are currently in different geographies


United States

Seadrill Limited operates as an oil and gas field service company. The Company offers drilling contracting services to unlock oil and gas resources for clients across harsh and benign locations. Seadrill serves customers worldwide.

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Seadrill (SDRL US)

Silver Measured Move to 35.50

Gold looks a bit fatigued and silver likely to play catch up. Greenback could present headwinds for equities. Japan reverses big gains in 2024.

Douglas Busch

SDRL: Tighter Outlook, PT to $80

Our price target is now $80 from $62 to reflect our 2025 adjusted EBITDA outlook. We are basing our forecast on tighter supply expecting drill...

BWS Financial Inc

SDRL: Navigating Thru Maintenance

SDRL has several vessels undergoing maintenance this year before their next contracts eroding the possibility of adjusted EBITDA growth. We do not...

BWS Financial Inc

SDRL: Course for Free Cash Flow

SDRL continues to exceed our expectations on profitability and free cash flow. SDRL announced contract extensions for several vessels, including...

BWS Financial Inc

SDRL: The Calm Ahead of News Flow

We are anticipating contract news as third quarter results are announced in November coinciding with the two vessels coming off contracts

BWS Financial Inc

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