Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.</li>
<li>Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.</li>
<li>China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.
Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.
China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.


Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Limited (SE US)</a> booked a strong set of 1Q2024 results from a GMV, revenue and adjusted EBITDA perspective, with fears of greater competition from TikTok failing to materialise. </li>
<li>The company has been investing in growth across all segments, with e-commerce driving and digital financial services driving growth but digital entertainment also seeing a return to growth mode. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Limited</a> continues to focus on its core competitiveness in pricing, improving service quality, and lowering the cost to serve through SPX Express, with advertising becoming a more meaningful contributor.  </li>
</ul>



Sea Limited (SE US) booked a strong set of 1Q2024 results from a GMV, revenue and adjusted EBITDA perspective, with fears of greater competition from TikTok failing to materialise. 
The company has been investing in growth across all segments, with e-commerce driving and digital financial services driving growth but digital entertainment also seeing a return to growth mode. 

Sea Limited continues to focus on its core competitiveness in pricing, improving service quality, and lowering the cost to serve through SPX Express, with advertising becoming a more meaningful contributor.  


Co-founder of Cube Asia, Cube Asia

Simon Torring

Co-founder of Cube Asia

Defining Social Commerce in Southeast Asia

Cube Asia

We offer granular market data and insights for online retail in Southeast Asia, helping brands and retail companies drive profitable growth. 

Why the Cube?
3 dimensions of granularity to help you get deep into the 1) geographies, 2) categories, and 3) types of data and insights you need for your business.

The Cube is a big-data machine that is continuously listening to public data sources and primary research, and triangulating across thousands of data points using probabilistic modeling to produce an accurate and granular picture of Southeast Asia’s online retail landscape.

<ul>
<li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type: disc;" aria-level="1">
Shopee - Sea’s largest business unit and Southeast Asia’s largest e-commerce platform - has reported negative EBITDA for most of the 8 or so years since its launch. 
</li>
<li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type: disc;" aria-level="1">
Investors now however appear to be looking for earnings growth. In 7 of the last 9 quarterly earnings reports, investors have rewarded the company every time it has reported earnings growth (its share price has gone up in the day after the release), and penalized when it has not.
</li>
<li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type: disc;" aria-level="1">
Based on our analysis (and subject to the disclaimer included below), we expect Shopee’s GMV and Revenue to improve in Q4 2023 (as compared to the previous quarter) along with its EBITDA, although earnings will likely remain in negative territory.
</li>
</ul>



Shopee - Sea’s largest business unit and Southeast Asia’s largest e-commerce platform - has reported negative EBITDA for most of the 8 or so years since its launch. 


Investors now however appear to be looking for earnings growth. In 7 of the last 9 quarterly earnings reports, investors have rewarded the company every time it has reported earnings growth (its share price has gone up in the day after the release), and penalized when it has not.


Based on our analysis (and subject to the disclaimer included below), we expect Shopee’s GMV and Revenue to improve in Q4 2023 (as compared to the previous quarter) along with its EBITDA, although earnings will likely remain in negative territory.



Sea Will Release Its Q4 2023 Earnings Report Soon

<ul>
<li>Shopee, Southeast Asia’s largest e-commerce player, has been on a strict financial diet to reach profitability in the last year.</li>
<li>That’s been welcome news for shareholders of its listed parent, Sea Ltd, but more challenging for sellers on the platform who have faced lower sales growth and higher selling costs after years of heavily subsidised operations. </li>
<li>In this blog post we report on the most important figures from Shopee’s newly published Q1-2023 results (<a href="https://www.sea.com/investor/quarterlyresults" target="_blank" rel="noopener">released 16 May</a>) as well as the key implications for e-commerce sellers in Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


Shopee, Southeast Asia’s largest e-commerce player, has been on a strict financial diet to reach profitability in the last year.
That’s been welcome news for shareholders of its listed parent, Sea Ltd, but more challenging for sellers on the platform who have faced lower sales growth and higher selling costs after years of heavily subsidised operations. 
In this blog post we report on the most important figures from Shopee’s newly published Q1-2023 results (released 16 May) as well as the key implications for e-commerce sellers in Southeast Asia.


Shopee Enters a New Era of Slower GMV Growth and Higher Fees for Sellers

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea (SE US)</a> has completed a full cycle of growth followed by a phase of profitability improvements/cost-cutting.</li>
<li>Although substantial cost reductions have been implemented, these efforts have mainly focused on fixed costs.</li>
<li>With marketing efficiency unchanged and significant improvements in gross margin difficult, the company appears no closer to achieving stable profitability than it initially was.</li>
</ul>



Sea (SE US) has completed a full cycle of growth followed by a phase of profitability improvements/cost-cutting.
Although substantial cost reductions have been implemented, these efforts have mainly focused on fixed costs.
With marketing efficiency unchanged and significant improvements in gross margin difficult, the company appears no closer to achieving stable profitability than it initially was.


Sea Ltd: No Nearer to Stable Profitability Than Before

Singapore

Sea Limited offers information technology services. The Company provides online personal computer and mobile digital content, e-commerce, and payment platforms. Sea serves customers worldwide.

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Sea (SE US)

Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI; EM and China Continue to Lead; U.S. Dollar (DXY), WTI Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Rolling Over; Buys in: Comms,...

Vermilion Research

Sea Limited (SE US) - Making Hay

Sea Ltd continues to focus on its core competitiveness in pricing, service quality, and lowering the cost to serve through SPX Express, with...

Angus Mackintosh

Sea Will Release Its Q4 2023 Earnings Report Soon

Shopee - Sea’s largest business unit and Southeast Asia’s largest e-commerce platform - has reported negative EBITDA for most of the 8 or so since...

Simon Torring

Shopee Enters a New Era of Slower GMV Growth and Higher Fees for Sellers

Shopee, Southeast Asia’s largest e-commerce player, has been on a strict financial diet to reach profitability in the last year. That’s been...

Simon Torring

Sea Ltd: No Nearer to Stable Profitability Than Before

Sea (SE US) has gone through growth and cost-cutting phases, but struggles to achieve stable profitability due to unchanged marketing efficiency...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI; EM and China Continue to Lead; U.S. Dollar (DXY), WTI Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Rolling Over; Buys in: Comms,...

Vermilion Research

Sea Limited (SE US) - Making Hay

Sea Ltd continues to focus on its core competitiveness in pricing, service quality, and lowering the cost to serve through SPX Express, with...

Angus Mackintosh

Sea Will Release Its Q4 2023 Earnings Report Soon

Shopee - Sea’s largest business unit and Southeast Asia’s largest e-commerce platform - has reported negative EBITDA for most of the 8 or so since...

Simon Torring

Shopee Enters a New Era of Slower GMV Growth and Higher Fees for Sellers

Shopee, Southeast Asia’s largest e-commerce player, has been on a strict financial diet to reach profitability in the last year. That’s been...

Simon Torring

Sea Ltd: No Nearer to Stable Profitability Than Before

​Sea (SE US) has gone through growth and cost-cutting phases, but struggles to achieve stable profitability due to unchanged marketing efficiency...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Sea (SE US) has gone through growth and cost-cutting phases, but struggles to achieve stable profitability due to unchanged marketing efficiency...