Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea (SE US)</a> 's management expects all three business segments - ecommerce, financial services and entertainment - to deliver high growth and profitability in 2025, supported by strong macro-eceonomic tailwind.</li>
<li>It's GAAP revenue was US$4.3 billion, up 30.8% year-on-year and net income was US$153.3 million, as compared to total net loss of US$(144.0) million for 3Q2023.</li>
<li>Its e-commerce business achieved positive adjusted EBITDA in 3Q 2024 in both Asia markets and Brazil.</li>
</ul>



Sea (SE US) 's management expects all three business segments - ecommerce, financial services and entertainment - to deliver high growth and profitability in 2025, supported by strong macro-eceonomic tailwind.
It's GAAP revenue was US$4.3 billion, up 30.8% year-on-year and net income was US$153.3 million, as compared to total net loss of US$(144.0) million for 3Q2023.
Its e-commerce business achieved positive adjusted EBITDA in 3Q 2024 in both Asia markets and Brazil.


Sea (SE US): Strong 3Q, Upbeat Management Talk Fires up the Stock

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>In 3Q2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd</a> demonstrated its ability to turn a profit at Shopee, whilst booking strong growth, with sales &amp; marketing kept well in check and active users increasing substantially.</li>
<li>E-Commerce registered higher take rates, through higher commissions, more paid advertising, and increasing levels of self-fulfilment through SPX Express, whilst Digital Financial Services saw a rapid acceleration in loan growth.</li>
<li>Digital Entertainment was back on form with strong growth in bookings, active users, ARPU, and adjusted EBITDA. Management remains confident about 4Q2024 and the outlook for 2025.</li>
</ul>


In 3Q2024, Sea Ltd demonstrated its ability to turn a profit at Shopee, whilst booking strong growth, with sales &amp; marketing kept well in check and active users increasing substantially.
E-Commerce registered higher take rates, through higher commissions, more paid advertising, and increasing levels of self-fulfilment through SPX Express, whilst Digital Financial Services saw a rapid acceleration in loan growth.
Digital Entertainment was back on form with strong growth in bookings, active users, ARPU, and adjusted EBITDA. Management remains confident about 4Q2024 and the outlook for 2025.


Sea Ltd (SE US) - Firing Profitability On All Segments

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.</li>
<li>The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.
The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases


Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Co-founder of Cube Asia, Cube Asia

Simon Torring

Co-founder of Cube Asia

Defining Social Commerce in Southeast Asia

Cube Asia

We offer granular market data and insights for online retail in Southeast Asia, helping brands and retail companies drive profitable growth. 

Why the Cube?
3 dimensions of granularity to help you get deep into the 1) geographies, 2) categories, and 3) types of data and insights you need for your business.

The Cube is a big-data machine that is continuously listening to public data sources and primary research, and triangulating across thousands of data points using probabilistic modeling to produce an accurate and granular picture of Southeast Asia’s online retail landscape.

<ul>
<li>Shopee, Southeast Asia’s largest e-commerce player, has been on a strict financial diet to reach profitability in the last year.</li>
<li>That’s been welcome news for shareholders of its listed parent, Sea Ltd, but more challenging for sellers on the platform who have faced lower sales growth and higher selling costs after years of heavily subsidised operations. </li>
<li>In this blog post we report on the most important figures from Shopee’s newly published Q1-2023 results (<a href="https://www.sea.com/investor/quarterlyresults" target="_blank" rel="noopener">released 16 May</a>) as well as the key implications for e-commerce sellers in Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


Shopee, Southeast Asia’s largest e-commerce player, has been on a strict financial diet to reach profitability in the last year.
That’s been welcome news for shareholders of its listed parent, Sea Ltd, but more challenging for sellers on the platform who have faced lower sales growth and higher selling costs after years of heavily subsidised operations. 
In this blog post we report on the most important figures from Shopee’s newly published Q1-2023 results (released 16 May) as well as the key implications for e-commerce sellers in Southeast Asia.


Shopee Enters a New Era of Slower GMV Growth and Higher Fees for Sellers

<ul>
<li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type: disc;" aria-level="1">
Shopee - Sea’s largest business unit and Southeast Asia’s largest e-commerce platform - has reported negative EBITDA for most of the 8 or so years since its launch. 
</li>
<li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type: disc;" aria-level="1">
Investors now however appear to be looking for earnings growth. In 7 of the last 9 quarterly earnings reports, investors have rewarded the company every time it has reported earnings growth (its share price has gone up in the day after the release), and penalized when it has not.
</li>
<li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type: disc;" aria-level="1">
Based on our analysis (and subject to the disclaimer included below), we expect Shopee’s GMV and Revenue to improve in Q4 2023 (as compared to the previous quarter) along with its EBITDA, although earnings will likely remain in negative territory.
</li>
</ul>



Shopee - Sea’s largest business unit and Southeast Asia’s largest e-commerce platform - has reported negative EBITDA for most of the 8 or so years since its launch. 


Investors now however appear to be looking for earnings growth. In 7 of the last 9 quarterly earnings reports, investors have rewarded the company every time it has reported earnings growth (its share price has gone up in the day after the release), and penalized when it has not.


Based on our analysis (and subject to the disclaimer included below), we expect Shopee’s GMV and Revenue to improve in Q4 2023 (as compared to the previous quarter) along with its EBITDA, although earnings will likely remain in negative territory.



Sea Will Release Its Q4 2023 Earnings Report Soon

Singapore

Sea Limited offers information technology services. The Company provides online personal computer and mobile digital content, e-commerce, and payment platforms. Sea serves customers worldwide.

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Sea (SE US)

Sea (SE US): Strong 3Q, Upbeat Management Talk Fires up the Stock

Stock was up 14.5% on strong 3Q results. Key takeaways from Mgt call. Sea's mgt expects high growth and profitability across business segments to...

Devi Subhakesan

Sea Ltd (SE US) - Firing Profitability On All Segments

In 3Q2024, Sea Ltd demonstrated its ability to turn a profit at Shopee, whilst booking strong growth, with sales & marketing kept well in check and...

Angus Mackintosh

Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Buying Global Technology; $SPX and MSCI $ACWI Remain Above Base Supports at 5650-5670 and $117; Buying Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM $SE $SAP $GRAB...

Vermilion Research

Shopee Enters a New Era of Slower GMV Growth and Higher Fees for Sellers

Shopee, Southeast Asia’s largest e-commerce player, has been on a strict financial diet to reach profitability in the last year. That’s been...

Simon Torring

Sea Will Release Its Q4 2023 Earnings Report Soon

Shopee - Sea’s largest business unit and Southeast Asia’s largest e-commerce platform - has reported negative EBITDA for most of the 8 or so since...

Simon Torring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Sea (SE US): Strong 3Q, Upbeat Management Talk Fires up the Stock

​Stock was up 14.5% on strong 3Q results. Key takeaways from Mgt call. Sea's mgt expects high growth and profitability across business segments to...

Devi Subhakesan

Sea Ltd (SE US) - Firing Profitability On All Segments

In 3Q2024, Sea Ltd demonstrated its ability to turn a profit at Shopee, whilst booking strong growth, with sales & marketing kept well in check and...

Angus Mackintosh

Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Buying Global Technology; $SPX and MSCI $ACWI Remain Above Base Supports at 5650-5670 and $117; Buying Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM $SE $SAP $GRAB...

Vermilion Research

Shopee Enters a New Era of Slower GMV Growth and Higher Fees for Sellers

Shopee, Southeast Asia’s largest e-commerce player, has been on a strict financial diet to reach profitability in the last year. That’s been...

Simon Torring

Sea Will Release Its Q4 2023 Earnings Report Soon

Shopee - Sea’s largest business unit and Southeast Asia’s largest e-commerce platform - has reported negative EBITDA for most of the 8 or so since...

Simon Torring

Stock was up 14.5% on strong 3Q results. Key takeaways from Mgt call. Sea's mgt expects high growth and profitability across business segments to...