Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.</li>
<li>We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.


MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since mid-February, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (9 have widened, 10 tightened, 0 at same level).</li>
<li>Trade preferences long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Handelsbanken, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
<li>Trade preferences long preferred / short ordinary shares: Sixt, VW, Danieli, MFE-Media for Europe, Grifols, Atlas Copco, Ericsson.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-February, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (9 have widened, 10 tightened, 0 at same level).
Trade preferences long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Handelsbanken, SSAB Svenska Stal.
Trade preferences long preferred / short ordinary shares: Sixt, VW, Danieli, MFE-Media for Europe, Grifols, Atlas Copco, Ericsson.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March ‘23 Report

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.</li>
<li>Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.</li>
<li>As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective</li>
</ul>


It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.
Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.
As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective


Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11686:1" rel="noopener">Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP)</a> EGM where activist Oasis Management wanted to spill the independent board members took place Friday.</li>
<li>Results were mixed, but generally a success for Oasis, with 9 of the 13 votes won. Preliminary analysis of "uncertain voter" split interesting, and "Glass Lewis Effect" stronger than expected.</li>
<li>The real shocker, however, was a footnote at the end of the announcement. This could (and <em>should</em>) have further repercussions. </li>
</ul>


The Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP) EGM where activist Oasis Management wanted to spill the independent board members took place Friday.
Results were mixed, but generally a success for Oasis, with 9 of the 13 votes won. Preliminary analysis of "uncertain voter" split interesting, and "Glass Lewis Effect" stronger than expected.
The real shocker, however, was a footnote at the end of the announcement. This could (and should) have further repercussions. 


Fujitec (6406) EGM - It WAS a Close-Run Thing, Glass Lewis Was the Big Winner, and SCANDAL?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>At the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11686:1" rel="noopener">Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP)</a> EGM, Oasis successfully secured approval for four out of six candidates for outside directors. The tight vote shows that shareholders desire change.</li>
<li>Oasis fell short of its nominations constituting up to two-thirds of the Board. However, Oasis-aligned directors will represent 67% of outside directors which still can drive meaningful change.</li>
<li>The EGM results will spur optimism that Fujitec can close the performance gap with peers, resulting in a rerating. Fujitec remains attractive on a cash-adjusted P/E basis.    </li>
</ul>


At the Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP) EGM, Oasis successfully secured approval for four out of six candidates for outside directors. The tight vote shows that shareholders desire change.
Oasis fell short of its nominations constituting up to two-thirds of the Board. However, Oasis-aligned directors will represent 67% of outside directors which still can drive meaningful change.
The EGM results will spur optimism that Fujitec can close the performance gap with peers, resulting in a rerating. Fujitec remains attractive on a cash-adjusted P/E basis.    


Fujitec (6406 JP): Oasis Scores a Victory in a Tight EGM Vote

Switzerland

Schindler Holding AG manufactures and installs elevators, escalators, and moving walkways internationally.  The Company's products are used in airports, subway stations, railroad terminals, shopping centers, cruise ships, hotels, and office buildings.  Schindler also offers maintenance services.

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Schindler Holding Ag (SCHP VX)

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March ‘23 Report

Since mid-February, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (9 have widened, 10 tightened, 0 at same level).

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Remain overweight Europe/UK and non-US equities; we are buyers on pullbacks as long as the FTSE 100 is above 7700, the STOXX Europe 50 is above...

Vermilion Research

Fujitec (6406) EGM - It WAS a Close-Run Thing, Glass Lewis Was the Big Winner, and SCANDAL?

The Fujitec EGM was, indeed, a close-run thing. A tight vote, and Oasis' losers clearly showed passive voting against. And there was a scandalous...

Travis Lundy

Fujitec (6406 JP): Oasis Scores a Victory in a Tight EGM Vote

The EGM results will spur optimism that the newly constructed Board can close the performance gap with peers, resulting in a rerating. Fujitec...

Arun George

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