Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>On Thursday 9 September, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> announced a Tender Offer aimed at lifting its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> to 48% at a sharp premium (up 46%). It hadn't warned Shinsei Bank of its intention to do so.</p><p>Kana Inagaki and Leo Lewis at the FT had a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1a863d9d-b081-4a9e-99d7-dbcd828aab75" target="_blank" rel="noopener">story</a> early Thursday evening describing the situation - the most concise and accurate take I have seen. I followed up hours later with something wordier in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sbi-8473-launches-a-hostile-tender-offer-on-shinsei-bank-8303" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57426" rel="noopener">SBI (8473) Launches a HOSTILE Tender Offer on Shinsei Bank (8303)!</a> On Thursday night the ADRs rose to ¥1930/share equivalent. </p><p>On Friday, the stock went limit up, Smartkarma held a Flash Webinar, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato</a> added <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shinsei-bank-valuations" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57474" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank - Valuations</a> to the anthology. </p><p>Over the weekend, articles were everywhere in the media, but they didn't say much. Shinsei hadn't told them what to say and SBI had already done the talking for its part. </p><p>Trading resumed on Monday and the stock opened above the Tender Offer Price ¥2000/share before closing a bit lower. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/229/720/original/Screenshot+2021-09-14+at+7.25.24+PM.png?1631618746" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="229720"></figure></section><hr><p>Yesterday saw articles suggesting Shinsei Bank would send SBI a list of questions to answer, would look at what they got back, and then would decide their opinion. </p><h3>But TODAY we see the real start of the game. </h3><p>The Nikkei <a href="https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUB146UA0U1A910C2000000/?unlock=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> in a short article a few hours ago that Shinsei's board would meet this week to approve an "emergency" poison pill defence. </p><p>How that would work might matter, but it might not. </p><p>More below the fold.</p>

On Thursday 9 September, SBI Holdings (8473 JP) announced a Tender Offer aimed at lifting its stake in Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) to 48% at a sharp premium (up 46%). It hadn't warned Shinsei Bank of its intention to do so.Kana Inagaki and Leo Lewis at the FT had a story early Thursday evening describing the situation - the most concise and accurate take I have seen. I followed up hours later with something wordier in SBI (8473) Launches a HOSTILE Tender Offer on Shinsei Bank (8303)! On Thursday night the ADRs rose to ¥1930/share equivalent. On Friday, the stock went limit up, Smartkarma held a Flash Webinar, and Mio Kato added Shinsei Bank - Valuations to the anthology. Over the weekend, articles were everywhere in the media, but they didn't say much. Shinsei hadn't told them what to say and SBI had already done the talking for its part. Trading resumed on Monday and the stock opened above the Tender Offer Price ¥2000/share before closing a bit lower. Yesterday saw articles suggesting Shinsei Bank would send SBI a list of questions to answer, would look at what they got back, and then would decide their opinion. But TODAY we see the real start of the game. The Nikkei reported in a short article a few hours ago that Shinsei's board would meet this week to approve an "emergency" poison pill defence. How that would work might matter, but it might not. More below the fold.

Shinsei Looks To A Poison Pill, But Probably Not Really

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Hongkong Land, SOHO China, Bank Rakyat, Oil Search, JCNC

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>As SBI goes hostile on Shinsei Bank, Travis has covered the details on the tender <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/dashboard?collection=all-insights&amp;item=57426" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. In order to examine the potential resting place of Shinsei Bank shares after SBI Holdings’ tender concludes, we provide below a valuation comparison vs. a variety of peers.</p>

As SBI goes hostile on Shinsei Bank, Travis has covered the details on the tender here. In order to examine the potential resting place of Shinsei Bank shares after SBI Holdings’ tender concludes, we provide below a valuation comparison vs. a variety of peers.

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<p>In today's flash webinar, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> will discuss the hostile tender offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a>. Travis will go over the background and opportunities:</p><ul>
<li>SBI has been building positions in regional banks with an apparent goal of creating a Super-Regional to compete with the big boys.</li>
<li>After creeping up to near 10% of Shinsei by end 2020 (having proposed an alliance the year before), and then from 10% to 20% in Q1 2021, SBI tried to oust 4 Shinsei directors in June. What started with guarded talks have become no talks, and SBI has launched a bid to own up to 48% of Shinsei.</li>
<li>Shinsei has options, but not great ones.</li>
<li>And this would change everything for shareholders.</li>
</ul><h3>The webinar will be hosted on Friday, 10/Sep/2021, 3.00pm SGT/HKT. It will be moderated by <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/lee-mitchell-3b616b37" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lee Mitchell</a>.</h3>

In today's flash webinar, Travis Lundy will discuss the hostile tender offer for Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) from SBI Holdings (8473 JP). Travis will go over the background and opportunities:
SBI has been building positions in regional banks with an apparent goal of creating a Super-Regional to compete with the big boys.
After creeping up to near 10% of Shinsei by end 2020 (having proposed an alliance the year before), and then from 10% to 20% in Q1 2021, SBI tried to oust 4 Shinsei directors in June. What started with guarded talks have become no talks, and SBI has launched a bid to own up to 48% of Shinsei.
Shinsei has options, but not great ones.
And this would change everything for shareholders.
The webinar will be hosted on Friday, 10/Sep/2021, 3.00pm SGT/HKT. It will be moderated by Lee Mitchell.

Flash Webinar | SBI’s Hostile Tender to Control Shinsei Bank

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Data for May 2021 from both the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) confirm that YoY loan growth for Japanese commercial banks continues to fall, led by the major banks where YoY loan growth is now in negative territory.  Loan growth at all banks fell to just +0.5% YoY at the end of May, according to the JBA (April was +2.6% YoY).  We expect that June data (to be released in mid-July) from the JBA and BoJ may reveal overall YoY loan growth is heading for the zero-level.</p><p>January through mid-March saw an unusually strong rally in bank shares, in line with trends in other global stock markets.  The Topix Banks Index peaked at 162.08 on 19 March 2021  -  just 4 days after the notorious Ides of March ‘turning-point’ that we have often referred to in Smartkarma Insights on Japanese banks’ share price performance  -  and has softened to the 145 level.  The sector’s surprise outperformance of Topix in CY2021 has been undermined by a sub-par June performance and on a longer-term view (as we show at the end of this Insight) and despite this year’s rally the sector remains a disappointing investment against the broader Topix Index.</p><p><strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a></em></strong> is the best performer of the major banks so far this year: up +33.6% over the last six months.  That said, this pales in comparison with bank stocks in other markets such as the US and Europe, where economies are recovering from the coronavirus pandemic and there are rising hopes of a mild steepening of the yield curve.  Meanwhile, despite greater concentration on boosting fee income and lowering overheads, many Japan’s banks remain seemingly unable to fully offset the adverse effects of the near-zero interest rate environment on domestic earnings.</p><p>“<em>Caveat Emptor!”</em> (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for the remainder of 2021 and beyond.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/215/895/original/8300-WR-JBanks-2021-0628-ZeroSheFlies-TPNBNKvsTPXin2021.jpg?1624939811" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="215895"></figure></section>

Data for May 2021 from both the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) confirm that YoY loan growth for Japanese commercial banks continues to fall, led by the major banks where YoY loan growth is now in negative territory.  Loan growth at all banks fell to just +0.5% YoY at the end of May, according to the JBA (April was +2.6% YoY).  We expect that June data (to be released in mid-July) from the JBA and BoJ may reveal overall YoY loan growth is heading for the zero-level.January through mid-March saw an unusually strong rally in bank shares, in line with trends in other global stock markets.  The Topix Banks Index peaked at 162.08 on 19 March 2021  -  just 4 days after the notorious Ides of March ‘turning-point’ that we have often referred to in Smartkarma Insights on Japanese banks’ share price performance  -  and has softened to the 145 level.  The sector’s surprise outperformance of Topix in CY2021 has been undermined by a sub-par June performance and on a longer-term view (as we show at the end of this Insight) and despite this year’s rally the sector remains a disappointing investment against the broader Topix Index.Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) is the best performer of the major banks so far this year: up +33.6% over the last six months.  That said, this pales in comparison with bank stocks in other markets such as the US and Europe, where economies are recovering from the coronavirus pandemic and there are rising hopes of a mild steepening of the yield curve.  Meanwhile, despite greater concentration on boosting fee income and lowering overheads, many Japan’s banks remain seemingly unable to fully offset the adverse effects of the near-zero interest rate environment on domestic earnings.“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for the remainder of 2021 and beyond.

Japan

The Bank of Kyoto, Ltd. is a regional bank in Kyoto.  The Bank provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments.  The Bank of Kyoto also provides financial services such as letter of credit, leasing, loans, and credit cards.

Mebuki Financial Group Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of Joyo Bank and Ashikaga Bank. As a financial group, the Company offers deposits, Loans, foreign exchange transactions, commercial and trust banking. Mebuki Financial Group also provides financial services such as letter of credit, credit cards and consulting.

The Hachijuni Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Nagano Prefecture. The Bank provides banking services such as deposits, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and trust accounts. The Bank also provides financial services such as leasing, credit cards, credit guarantee, debt recovery, trading, and venture capital and operates branches overseas.

Rakuten Bank, Ltd. operates as an Internet based bank. The Company provides banking services including deposits, loans, exchange transactions, and other services. Rakuten Bank also provides financial services including investment trusts, securities, credit and cash cards, lottery tickets, and others.

Fukuoka Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of the Bank of Fukuoka and Kumamoto Family Bank. As a financial group, the Company provides banking services including deposits, loans, foreign currency transactions. The Company also provides other financial services such as credit card, letter of credit, and leasing services.

Aozora Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments. Aozora Bank also provides services such as trust account, resolution and collection, and venture capital.

The 77 Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank in Tohoku area.  The Bank provides general banking services including deposits, loans, and exchange transactions. The Bank also provides others financial services such as securities brokerage, trust banking, letter of credit, leasing, credit cards, and computer services.

The Gunma Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Gunma Prefecture.  The Bank provides banking services such as deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transaction.  The Gunma Bank also provides financial services such as leasing, credit cards, letter of credit, and investment advisory, and develops information systems.

Yamaguchi Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of Yamaguchi Bank and Momiji Holdings. The Group provides variety of financial services such as deposits, loans, foreign exchange transactions, leasing and credit cards.

Kyushu Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of Higo Bank and Kagoshima Bank.  The Bank provides banking services such as deposits, loans, and exchange transactions.  Kyushu Financial Group also provides other financial services including security brokerage, credit cards, leasing, and letters of credit.

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation provides banking services. The Bank checking accounts, lending, credit cards, online and mobile banking, and wealth and treasury management services. Atlantic Union Bankshares serves customers in the United States.

International Bancshares Corporation, through its bank subsidiaries, provides commercial and retail banking services through offices in south and southeast Texas.  The Bank accepts deposits from the general public and uses those funds to make a variety of loans.

Fulton Financial Corporation is a multi-bank holding company. The Banks offer a full range of general retail and commercial banking services, including deposits, loans, equipment leasing and financing, and credit cards. Fulton operates in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.

The Bank of East Asia, Limited and its subsidiaries provide general banking, related financial, business corporate, and investor services.

Huishang Bank Corporation Limited is a commercial bank. The Bank provides banking services including loans, money market operations, treasury business, investment and trading services, and valet transactions.

Hong Leong Financial Group Berhad is a banking and financial services holding company. The Company provides a range of services including commercial and consumer banking, investment banking, and insurance broking. Through its subsidiaries, Hong Leong Financial underwrites life/general insurance, provides funds management, corporate advisory, and stock and share broking services.

Ameris Bancorp is a multi-bank holding company. The Banks provide a broad range of retail and commercial banking services to its customers, including checking and savings deposits, commercial and consumer loans, trust services, discount brokerage services, and electronic funds transfer services. Ameris Bancorp operates in Georgia, Florida, and Alabama.

United Community Banks, Inc. is a multi-bank holding company with locations throughout north Georgia and western North Carolina.  The Banks are community oriented and offer retail and corporate banking services including checking, savings, and time deposit accounts, secured and unsecured loans, wire transfers, trust services, and rental of safe deposit boxes.

Associated Banc-Corp is a Midwest banking franchise headquartered in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Bank offers a full range of financial products and services through banking locations serving communities throughout Wisconsin, Illinois, and Minnesota, and commercial financial services in Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Texas.

ServisFirst Bancshares Inc. operates as the holding company for ServisFirst Bank that provides consumer and commercial banking services. The Company offers various deposit products, such as demand, time, and savings deposits, as well as negotiable orders of withdrawal accounts, checking accounts, money market accounts, certificates of deposit, and IRA accounts.

SBI Shinsei Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transaction, as well as investment trust service and issuance of long-term bonds.

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SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)

Shinsei Looks To A Poison Pill, But Probably Not Really

Shinsei is said to be looking to a poison pill, even before it has the answers to questions back from SBI. That tells you what you need to know....

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Hongkong Land, SOHO China, Bank Rakyat, Oil Search, JCNC

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Shinsei Bank - Valuations

In order to examine the potential resting place of Shinsei Bank shares after SBI Holdings’ tender concludes, we provide below a valuation...

Mio Kato

Flash Webinar | SBI’s Hostile Tender to Control Shinsei Bank

In today's flash webinar, Travis Lundy will discuss the hostile tender offer for Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) from SBI Holdings (8473 JP)

Smartkarma Research

Japanese Bank Lending: Zero She Flies

The sector’s surprise outperformance of Topix in CY2021 has been undermined by a sub-par June performance. Zero growth beckons. Caveat Emptor...

J. Brian Waterhouse

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