Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Aramco’s 2024 revenue fell 1% YoY, missing estimates by 7.6%, while net profit dropped 12.4%. EPS missed by 0.3%. Average realized oil prices declined by 4.1%.</li>
<li>The decline stemmed from weaker crude prices, higher costs, lower refining margins, and reduced income. Total hydrocarbon production fell 3.1% YoY in 2024.</li>
<li>Saudi Aramco set 2025 dividends at USD 85.4 billion, down 31.1% from 2024. Performance-linked incentives were slashed by 98% to USD 900 million from USD 43.1 billion in 2024.</li>
</ul>


Aramco’s 2024 revenue fell 1% YoY, missing estimates by 7.6%, while net profit dropped 12.4%. EPS missed by 0.3%. Average realized oil prices declined by 4.1%.
The decline stemmed from weaker crude prices, higher costs, lower refining margins, and reduced income. Total hydrocarbon production fell 3.1% YoY in 2024.
Saudi Aramco set 2025 dividends at USD 85.4 billion, down 31.1% from 2024. Performance-linked incentives were slashed by 98% to USD 900 million from USD 43.1 billion in 2024.


[Earnings Review] Aramco’s 2024 Performance Hit by Weak Oil, Cuts 2025 Dividend by One-Third

<ul>
<li>Saudi Aramco’s Q4 revenue is expected to fall 2.6% QoQ but rise by 10.6% YoY, while its EPS is anticipated to drop 7.5% QoQ and 11.9% YoY.</li>
<li>With OPEC likely extending supply cuts past April 2025, Saudi Aramco has little room to raise output, leaving growth largely dependent on oil prices.</li>
<li>Aramco acquired a 25% stake in Unioil Petroleum Philippines, expanding its retail presence, and partnered with Linde and Schlumberger to develop a major CCS hub.</li>
</ul>


Saudi Aramco’s Q4 revenue is expected to fall 2.6% QoQ but rise by 10.6% YoY, while its EPS is anticipated to drop 7.5% QoQ and 11.9% YoY.
With OPEC likely extending supply cuts past April 2025, Saudi Aramco has little room to raise output, leaving growth largely dependent on oil prices.
Aramco acquired a 25% stake in Unioil Petroleum Philippines, expanding its retail presence, and partnered with Linde and Schlumberger to develop a major CCS hub.


[Earnings Preview] Aramco to Face Pressure in Q4 as Weak Oil Prices Squeeze Margins

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 14/Mar, U.S. crude inventories rose 1.7m barrels (vs. expectations of 0.8m build), gasoline stockpiles fell below expectations, and distillate inventories declined more than anticipated.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose by 9 Bcf for the week ending 14/Mar, more than analyst expectations of a 3 Bcf build. Inventories are 10% below the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Barclays cut Exxon's price target to USD 135 from USD 137 with an Overweight rating, while Citigroup lowered Occidental's target to USD 51 from USD 56 with a Neutral rating.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 14/Mar, U.S. crude inventories rose 1.7m barrels (vs. expectations of 0.8m build), gasoline stockpiles fell below expectations, and distillate inventories declined more than anticipated.
US natural gas inventories rose by 9 Bcf for the week ending 14/Mar, more than analyst expectations of a 3 Bcf build. Inventories are 10% below the 5-year seasonal average.
Barclays cut Exxon's price target to USD 135 from USD 137 with an Overweight rating, while Citigroup lowered Occidental's target to USD 51 from USD 56 with a Neutral rating.


[ETP 2025/12] WTI Gains on Geopolitical Uncertainty, Henry Hub Falls on Rising Nat-Gas Stockpiles

<ul>
<li>Aramco’s Q3 operating revenue fell 1.8% YoY and missed estimates by 0.5%. Similarly, its net profit fell by 15.4% YoY and its EPS missed expectations by 1%.</li>
<li>Aramco’s total hydrocarbon production fell 0.8% YoY but rose 3.3% QoQ in Q3. Its average crude oil price realisation dropped 11.2% YoY and 7.5% QoQ.</li>
<li>Despite a decline in net profit, Aramco maintained its dividend, which led to a shift from net cash to a net debt position as dividend payouts exceeded free cash flow.</li>
</ul>


Aramco’s Q3 operating revenue fell 1.8% YoY and missed estimates by 0.5%. Similarly, its net profit fell by 15.4% YoY and its EPS missed expectations by 1%.
Aramco’s total hydrocarbon production fell 0.8% YoY but rose 3.3% QoQ in Q3. Its average crude oil price realisation dropped 11.2% YoY and 7.5% QoQ.
Despite a decline in net profit, Aramco maintained its dividend, which led to a shift from net cash to a net debt position as dividend payouts exceeded free cash flow.


[Earnings Review] Saudi Aramco Maintains Dividend Despite Decline in Net Profit in Q3

<ul>
<li>Aramco’s Q3 revenue is expected to fall 10.6% QoQ and 0.8% YoY, while its EPS is anticipated to drop 6.8% QoQ and 24.4% YoY.</li>
<li>Saudi Aramco is vulnerable to oil price declines due to stalled production expansion from OPEC quotas, facing pressure from lower upstream realisations and weaker refining margins.</li>
<li>Aramco plans to increase gas production by 60% by 2030 compared to 2021 levels. It aims to capture 11m tonnes of CO2 annually from its facilities by 2035.</li>
</ul>


Aramco’s Q3 revenue is expected to fall 10.6% QoQ and 0.8% YoY, while its EPS is anticipated to drop 6.8% QoQ and 24.4% YoY.
Saudi Aramco is vulnerable to oil price declines due to stalled production expansion from OPEC quotas, facing pressure from lower upstream realisations and weaker refining margins.
Aramco plans to increase gas production by 60% by 2030 compared to 2021 levels. It aims to capture 11m tonnes of CO2 annually from its facilities by 2035.


[Earnings Preview] Aramco Projected to Bleed in Q3 Amid Significant Drop in Crude Oil Prices

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabian Oil Co., doing business as Saudi Aramco, operates as an oil exploration company. The Company focuses on hydrocarbons exploration, production, refining, distribution, and shipping, as well as provides crude oil marketing services. Saudi Aramco serves customers worldwide.

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Saudi Aramco (ARAMCO AB)

[Earnings Review] Aramco’s 2024 Performance Hit by Weak Oil, Cuts 2025 Dividend by One-Third

Aramco's 2024 revenue and net profit dropped, missing estimates due to weaker crude prices, higher costs, and reduced production. Dividends for...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Aramco to Face Pressure in Q4 as Weak Oil Prices Squeeze Margins

Saudi Aramco's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to dip QoQ, but rise YoY. Growth reliant on oil prices as OPEC extends supply cuts. Expanding retail...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/12] WTI Gains on Geopolitical Uncertainty, Henry Hub Falls on Rising Nat-Gas Stockpiles

US crude inventories rose more than expected, gasoline stockpiles fell short, and natural gas inventories exceeded analyst predictions. Barclays...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] Saudi Aramco Maintains Dividend Despite Decline in Net Profit in Q3

Aramco shifted to a net debt position as dividend payouts surpassed cash flow. Profit dropped 15.4% YoY on weaker oil prices and refining margins,...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Aramco Projected to Bleed in Q3 Amid Significant Drop in Crude Oil Prices

Aramco's revenue and profit are projected to decline QoQ and YoY due to weak crude oil prices. OPEC supply quotas restrict output increases, making...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Earnings Review] Aramco’s 2024 Performance Hit by Weak Oil, Cuts 2025 Dividend by One-Third

​Aramco's 2024 revenue and net profit dropped, missing estimates due to weaker crude prices, higher costs, and reduced production. Dividends for...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Aramco to Face Pressure in Q4 as Weak Oil Prices Squeeze Margins

​Saudi Aramco's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to dip QoQ, but rise YoY. Growth reliant on oil prices as OPEC extends supply cuts. Expanding retail...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/12] WTI Gains on Geopolitical Uncertainty, Henry Hub Falls on Rising Nat-Gas Stockpiles

​US crude inventories rose more than expected, gasoline stockpiles fell short, and natural gas inventories exceeded analyst predictions. Barclays...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] Saudi Aramco Maintains Dividend Despite Decline in Net Profit in Q3

Aramco shifted to a net debt position as dividend payouts surpassed cash flow. Profit dropped 15.4% YoY on weaker oil prices and refining margins,...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Aramco Projected to Bleed in Q3 Amid Significant Drop in Crude Oil Prices

Aramco's revenue and profit are projected to decline QoQ and YoY due to weak crude oil prices. OPEC supply quotas restrict output increases, making...

Mint Finance

Aramco's 2024 revenue and net profit dropped, missing estimates due to weaker crude prices, higher costs, and reduced production. Dividends for...

Saudi Aramco's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to dip QoQ, but rise YoY. Growth reliant on oil prices as OPEC extends supply cuts. Expanding retail...

US crude inventories rose more than expected, gasoline stockpiles fell short, and natural gas inventories exceeded analyst predictions. Barclays...