Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If Silchester's activism towards <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiga-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18665:1" rel="noopener">Shiga (8366 JP)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugoku-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11177:1" rel="noopener">Chugoku (8382 JP)</a> is going to be fought, it is going to be fought in the Japanese media, not in the AGM convocation. </li>
<li>The idea that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a> de-merger could be thwarted is something which could dampen spirits on the stock near-term</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-transport-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2395:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP)</a> as a risk arb situation is trading wide. It should trade tighter. </li>
</ul>


If Silchester's activism towards Shiga (8366 JP) &amp; Chugoku (8382 JP) is going to be fought, it is going to be fought in the Japanese media, not in the AGM convocation. 
The idea that the AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU) de-merger could be thwarted is something which could dampen spirits on the stock near-term

Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) as a risk arb situation is trading wide. It should trade tighter. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Hitachi Transport, Shiga Bank, CP Food, AGL, Woodside/BHP, Yamada Denki

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>The Merger of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-petroleum-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:177:1" rel="noopener">Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU)</a> with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> subsidiary BHP Petroleum sees a vote 19 May and likely Effective Date by 1 June.</li>
<li>BHP would go ex-dividend on 25 May, with the in-specie dividend payment WPL shares delivered on 1 June and tradable one day later. </li>
<li>As discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/woodside-bhp-petroleum-merger-on-tap-index-impact-minimal-but-flowback-may-not-be" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:68190" rel="noopener">Woodside / BHP Petroleum Merger On Tap; Index Impact Minimal but Flowback May Not Be</a>, major index impact is minimal, but monsters lurk beneath the tranquil surface.</li>
</ul>


The Merger of Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU) with BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) subsidiary BHP Petroleum sees a vote 19 May and likely Effective Date by 1 June.
BHP would go ex-dividend on 25 May, with the in-specie dividend payment WPL shares delivered on 1 June and tradable one day later. 
As discussed in Woodside / BHP Petroleum Merger On Tap; Index Impact Minimal but Flowback May Not Be, major index impact is minimal, but monsters lurk beneath the tranquil surface.


Woodside / BHP Petroleum Merger - Thinking About Flows (Still a Flowback Sell)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain bearish, as do indexes in Japan, Hong Kong, China, Europe, and Germany.</li>
<li>Until we see these indexes break above downtrends and key resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.</li>
<li>Remain overweight Energy and Materials with the secular commodity bull market intact. Defensive Sectors are also hitting 1-2-year RS highs; we recommend overweights to Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.</li>
</ul>


Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain bearish, as do indexes in Japan, Hong Kong, China, Europe, and Germany.
Until we see these indexes break above downtrends and key resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.
Remain overweight Energy and Materials with the secular commodity bull market intact. Defensive Sectors are also hitting 1-2-year RS highs; we recommend overweights to Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.


Opportunities Within Energy and Materials

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-petroleum-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:177:1" rel="noopener">Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> proposed a merger between Woodside and BHP Petroleum in August 2021, and signed the deal in November 2021.</li>
<li>It required regulatory approvals (of which it already has some) and Woodside shareholder approval, and the Woodside shares to be received by BHP would be distributed to BHP Shareholders.</li>
<li>Today, Woodside presented the <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220408/pdf/457vkgr3tsd00s.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Explanatory Memorandum</a>, the <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220408/pdf/457vkk523x0q8z.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Independent Expert Report</a> ("fair and reasonable"), and <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220408/pdf/457vkbn81yv3cr.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">information about the 19 May AGM vote</a>. This deal could be done 1 June.</li>
</ul>



Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU) and BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) proposed a merger between Woodside and BHP Petroleum in August 2021, and signed the deal in November 2021.
It required regulatory approvals (of which it already has some) and Woodside shareholder approval, and the Woodside shares to be received by BHP would be distributed to BHP Shareholders.
Today, Woodside presented the Explanatory Memorandum, the Independent Expert Report ("fair and reasonable"), and information about the 19 May AGM vote. This deal could be done 1 June.


Woodside / BHP Petroleum Merger On Tap; Index Impact Minimal but Flowback May Not Be

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P/ASX Index family is a widely-tracked group of indices and sub-indices which represent the performance of ASX-listed companies. </li>
<li>The constituency changes for ASX 300, ASX 200, ASX 100, ASX 50, and ASX 20 were announced today.</li>
<li>Below is a discussion of the official results and potential trading strategies to generate market-neutral returns in the run up to the Inclusion Event.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX Index family is a widely-tracked group of indices and sub-indices which represent the performance of ASX-listed companies. 
The constituency changes for ASX 300, ASX 200, ASX 100, ASX 50, and ASX 20 were announced today.
Below is a discussion of the official results and potential trading strategies to generate market-neutral returns in the run up to the Inclusion Event.


S&P/​​​ASX Indices: March 2022 Index Changes and Trading Strategy

Australia

Santos Limited explores for and produces natural gas, crude oil, condensate, naphtha and liquid petroleum gas.  The Company conducts major onshore and offshore petroleum exploration activities at oil and gas fields in Australia (Cooper/Eromanga Basins), the United States (Gulf of Mexico), Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. The Company also transports crude oil by pipeline.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Santos Ltd (STO AU)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Hitachi Transport, Shiga Bank, CP Food, AGL, Woodside/BHP, Yamada Denki

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Woodside / BHP Petroleum Merger - Thinking About Flows (Still a Flowback Sell)

BHP is about to deliver A$27bn of WPL shares to its holders - plus a LOT of franking credits. Not all the WPL Shares To Be Received will be...

Travis Lundy

Opportunities Within Energy and Materials

Global indexes remain below our key lines in the sand of $54 on $ACWX, $75.25 on $EFA, and the 200-day MA on $ACWI. As long as prices are below...

Vermilion Research

Woodside / BHP Petroleum Merger On Tap; Index Impact Minimal but Flowback May Not Be

Woodside has announced its Shareholder Meeting Date for the BHP Petroleum Merger Approval (it was already known). The IE has declared it "fair and...

Travis Lundy

S&P/ASX Indices: March 2022 Index Changes and Trading Strategy

A look at the S&P ASX Index March 2022 index constituent changes and discussion on potential trading strategies to generated market-neutral returns.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Hitachi Transport, Shiga Bank, CP Food, AGL, Woodside/BHP, Yamada Denki

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Woodside / BHP Petroleum Merger - Thinking About Flows (Still a Flowback Sell)

BHP is about to deliver A$27bn of WPL shares to its holders - plus a LOT of franking credits. Not all the WPL Shares To Be Received will be...

Travis Lundy

Opportunities Within Energy and Materials

Global indexes remain below our key lines in the sand of $54 on $ACWX, $75.25 on $EFA, and the 200-day MA on $ACWI. As long as prices are below...

Vermilion Research

Woodside / BHP Petroleum Merger On Tap; Index Impact Minimal but Flowback May Not Be

Woodside has announced its Shareholder Meeting Date for the BHP Petroleum Merger Approval (it was already known). The IE has declared it "fair and...

Travis Lundy

S&P/​​​ASX Indices: March 2022 Index Changes and Trading Strategy

A look at the S&P ASX Index March 2022 index constituent changes and discussion on potential trading strategies to generated market-neutral returns.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Indices: March 2022 Index Changes and Trading Strategy