Independent Research, US Dominant Players, Investment Talk

Investment Talk

Independent Research, US Dominant Players

Investment Talk is for readers who wish to learn about companies that are potentially outside of their own circle of research, as well as those who are longing to become part of a community of like-minded investors and learn more about investment research. I would describe myself as a long-term investor who typically takes a 3Y to 5Y outlook, before reassessing once that period matures. I follow the adage that one should research, reach a conclusion, and then verify and continue to hold so long as the thesis remains intact. My own investing style is one that seeks to find dominant players within their respective market who have shown signs of monopoly or oligopolistic behaviour, unlikely to be disrupted, in tandem with discovering market disruptors who have a high likelihood of disrupting their respective market. Equally (and weighted accordingly) I seek to discover more nuanced, misunderstood, situations with a shorter time frame.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>I was today-years-old when I learned that Europe has its own version of the Magnificent 7; the basket of giga-cap US tech companies comprised of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.</li><li>The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then it was just “FAAMG”) .</li><li><p>Namely, they were market leaders in the STOXX 600 Europe Index, they had grown to become an increasingly larger share of the market, and their earnings had far outpaced the broader index.</p><div></div></li></ul>

I was today-years-old when I learned that Europe has its own version of the Magnificent 7; the basket of giga-cap US tech companies comprised of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then it was just “FAAMG”) .Namely, they were market leaders in the STOXX 600 Europe Index, they had grown to become an increasingly larger share of the market, and their earnings had far outpaced the broader index.

Independent Investment Research & Investor, Maverick Equity Research

Maverick Equity Research

Independent Investment Research & Investor

Independent Investment Research & Investor: value, dividend and growth stocks. Risk management & hedging for an all weather portfolio.

<ul><li>Despite working in various headquarters in European banks, my work likely did not reach directly more than 500 people at any time (confidential/secretive/sensitive etc), hence a 10x bigger reach now is quite crazy and interesting for sure!</li><li><p>Let’s begin with 2 charts on US monetary policy and inflation that I was humbled to have them liked and retweeted on Twitter by the great Danielle DiMartino Booth (CEO &amp; Chief Strategist, QI Research LLC, Fmr Federal Reserve insider, Economist): M2 with a negative growth of -2.04% working to make inflation low / back to target</p></li><li><p>note how the -4.63% growth last year was a rate that meant it was the fastest pace of money supply compression since Jan 1933 ... let that sink in!</p></li></ul>

Despite working in various headquarters in European banks, my work likely did not reach directly more than 500 people at any time (confidential/secretive/sensitive etc), hence a 10x bigger reach now is quite crazy and interesting for sure!Let’s begin with 2 charts on US monetary policy and inflation that I was humbled to have them liked and retweeted on Twitter by the great Danielle DiMartino Booth (CEO &amp; Chief Strategist, QI Research LLC, Fmr Federal Reserve insider, Economist): M2 with a negative growth of -2.04% working to make inflation low / back to targetnote how the -4.63% growth last year was a rate that meant it was the fastest pace of money supply compression since Jan 1933 ... let that sink in!

Maverick Charts & Markets - February 2024 Edition #15

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 3Q23, revenue jumped 2.5x YoY and 12.1x QoQ to KRW231.8 billion, mainly due to the inflow related to Novavax vaccine contract settlement and resumption of flu vaccine production.</li>
<li>Despite significantly improved Q3 result, SK Bioscience is expected to end 2023 on a weak note, due to the absence of contract manufacturing revenue from Novavax.</li>
<li>SK Bioscience has applied for EUA for the updated Novavax COVID-19 vaccine in Korea. Once approved, the company targets to distribute the vaccine during 2023–2024 winter seasons in Korea.</li>
</ul>


In 3Q23, revenue jumped 2.5x YoY and 12.1x QoQ to KRW231.8 billion, mainly due to the inflow related to Novavax vaccine contract settlement and resumption of flu vaccine production.
Despite significantly improved Q3 result, SK Bioscience is expected to end 2023 on a weak note, due to the absence of contract manufacturing revenue from Novavax.
SK Bioscience has applied for EUA for the updated Novavax COVID-19 vaccine in Korea. Once approved, the company targets to distribute the vaccine during 2023–2024 winter seasons in Korea.


SK Bioscience (302440 KS): Significantly Improved 3Q Result Benefitted From One-Time Payment

<ul>
<li>With 1H23 revenue of KRW704 billion, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanmi-pharm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12476:1" rel="noopener">Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS)</a> is on track on surpass its 2022 revenue of KRW1.33 trillion to reach a new high in 2023.</li>
<li>Hanmi is developing epeglenatide as personalized obesity drug for South Korean market. With the spectacular success of obesity drugs in the U.S., epeglenatide seems to be have great market potential.</li>
<li>Outlicensing partner Merck is conducting phase 2b trial on efinopegdutide for NASH, with result expected in 2025. Efinopegdutide obtained fast track designation from FDA, which should accelerate its commercialization.</li>
</ul>


With 1H23 revenue of KRW704 billion, Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS) is on track on surpass its 2022 revenue of KRW1.33 trillion to reach a new high in 2023.
Hanmi is developing epeglenatide as personalized obesity drug for South Korean market. With the spectacular success of obesity drugs in the U.S., epeglenatide seems to be have great market potential.
Outlicensing partner Merck is conducting phase 2b trial on efinopegdutide for NASH, with result expected in 2025. Efinopegdutide obtained fast track designation from FDA, which should accelerate its commercialization.


Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS): Core Products Continue to Drive Sales; Pipeline Progress Raises Hope

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.</li>
<li>This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.</li>
<li>We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare</li>
</ul>


Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.
This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.
We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare


Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

United States

Sanofi is a global pharmaceutical company that researches, develops and manufactures prescription pharmaceuticals and vaccines.  The Company develops cardiovascular, thrombosis, metabolic disorder, central nervous system, internal medicine and oncology drugs, and vaccines.

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Sanofi ADR (SNY US)

Europe's Magnificent Eleven

The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then...

Investment Talk

Maverick Charts & Markets - February 2024 Edition #15

note how the -4.63% growth last year was a rate that meant it was the fastest pace of money supply compression since Jan 1933 ... let that sink in!

Maverick Equity Research

SK Bioscience (302440 KS): Significantly Improved 3Q Result Benefitted From One-Time Payment

In 3Q23, revenue jumped 2.5x YoY and 12.1x QoQ to KRW232B, mainly due to the inflow related to Novavax vaccine contract settlement, resumption of...

Tina Banerjee

Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS): Core Products Continue to Drive Sales; Pipeline Progress Raises Hope

Hanmi Pharm is projected to clock record high revenue in 2023. The company's obesity drug is in phase 3 trial. Two rare disease drug candidates...

Tina Banerjee

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Europe's Magnificent Eleven

The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then...

Investment Talk

Maverick Charts & Markets - February 2024 Edition #15

note how the -4.63% growth last year was a rate that meant it was the fastest pace of money supply compression since Jan 1933 ... let that sink in!

Maverick Equity Research

SK Bioscience (302440 KS): Significantly Improved 3Q Result Benefitted From One-Time Payment

In 3Q23, revenue jumped 2.5x YoY and 12.1x QoQ to KRW232B, mainly due to the inflow related to Novavax vaccine contract settlement, resumption of...

Tina Banerjee

Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS): Core Products Continue to Drive Sales; Pipeline Progress Raises Hope

​Hanmi Pharm is projected to clock record high revenue in 2023. The company's obesity drug is in phase 3 trial. Two rare disease drug candidates...

Tina Banerjee

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

Hanmi Pharm is projected to clock record high revenue in 2023. The company's obesity drug is in phase 3 trial. Two rare disease drug candidates...