Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the second time in 3 weeks, 3D Investment Partners has launched, unannounced, a Partial Tender Offer for pure investment purposes, for a 10-15% stake in a REIT.</li>
<li>Last time it was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-ud-reit-investment-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19428:1" rel="noopener">NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation (8956 JP)</a>. This time it is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankyu-hanshin-reit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12654:1" rel="noopener">Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. (8977 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The trade last time was to sell NTT UD on the pop and replace with peers. That has worked. The trade is probably the same here. </li>
</ul>


For the second time in 3 weeks, 3D Investment Partners has launched, unannounced, a Partial Tender Offer for pure investment purposes, for a 10-15% stake in a REIT.
Last time it was NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation (8956 JP). This time it is Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. (8977 JP). 
The trade last time was to sell NTT UD on the pop and replace with peers. That has worked. The trade is probably the same here. 


3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on Hankyu Hanshin REIT (8977)

<ul>
<li>Last October, I wrote about the plan the sponsor of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a> had to exchange buildings with the REIT to clean it up, then buy more units.</li>
<li>Today they announced the completion of the Portfolio Rebalancing Plan started in March 2023. And the plan to buy more units. The assets transferred out were gone at end Jan-2024.</li>
<li>Now that's done, and there are units to buy. Maximum 46,652 units over maximum 220 days.</li>
</ul>


Last October, I wrote about the plan the sponsor of Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP) had to exchange buildings with the REIT to clean it up, then buy more units.
Today they announced the completion of the Portfolio Rebalancing Plan started in March 2023. And the plan to buy more units. The assets transferred out were gone at end Jan-2024.
Now that's done, and there are units to buy. Maximum 46,652 units over maximum 220 days.


Sankei Real Estate (2972) Sponsor Buy Now On And It Isn't Small (Even if the REIT Is)

David Blennerhassett

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente Ltd (8114 JP)</a> earnings disappoints, buy the dip. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> is buying for the long-term.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mgm-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:472:1" rel="noopener">MGM China Holdings (2282 HK)</a> has gained market share in mass table market, VIP, and total revenue. Yet MGM's FY24E EV/EBITDA is ~40% below its two-year forward average EV/EBITDA pre-Covid.</li>
<li>If you had a J-REIT portfolio, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a> would go in and push something else out or smaller. I think one gets beta-plus, which is usually called alpha.</li>
</ul>


If Descente Ltd (8114 JP) earnings disappoints, buy the dip. Itochu Corp (8001 JP) is buying for the long-term.

MGM China Holdings (2282 HK) has gained market share in mass table market, VIP, and total revenue. Yet MGM's FY24E EV/EBITDA is ~40% below its two-year forward average EV/EBITDA pre-Covid.
If you had a J-REIT portfolio, Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP) would go in and push something else out or smaller. I think one gets beta-plus, which is usually called alpha.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Shinko Electric Industries, MGM China, Decente, Sankei Real Estate,

<ul>
<li>On 16 October, the Asset Management Co of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a> announced earnings, the execution of a Revival Plan, and said the sponsor, Sankei Building would buy more.</li>
<li>They'll buy for up to 220 days starting sometime before Feb-end. Presumably after the Revival Plan transactions have been executed. </li>
<li>The REIT is cheap to peers. It is small to peers. It needs some reviving. But when a sponsor promises to buy, it pays to take a look. </li>
</ul>


On 16 October, the Asset Management Co of Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP) announced earnings, the execution of a Revival Plan, and said the sponsor, Sankei Building would buy more.
They'll buy for up to 220 days starting sometime before Feb-end. Presumably after the Revival Plan transactions have been executed. 
The REIT is cheap to peers. It is small to peers. It needs some reviving. But when a sponsor promises to buy, it pays to take a look. 


Sponsor of Sankei Real Estate (2972) To Buy More Units in Revival Plan

<ul>
<li>Two months ago I wrote about a possible "Sustained Flow Event" on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-excellent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12745:1" rel="noopener">Japan Excellent (8987 JP)</a>. Since then, the stock has outperformed every other Office REIT. It's up since then.</li>
<li>Outperformance within Office REITs has been a minimum of 5.9%, and a maximum of ~17% vs the biggest peer, with an average and median outperformance of 10.8% and 9.2% respectively.</li>
<li>There is no reason to think it won't continue, but the Japan Excellent story is idiosyncratic.</li>
</ul>


Two months ago I wrote about a possible "Sustained Flow Event" on Japan Excellent (8987 JP). Since then, the stock has outperformed every other Office REIT. It's up since then.
Outperformance within Office REITs has been a minimum of 5.9%, and a maximum of ~17% vs the biggest peer, with an average and median outperformance of 10.8% and 9.2% respectively.
There is no reason to think it won't continue, but the Japan Excellent story is idiosyncratic.


Japan Excellent (8987) Has Been Most Excellent. It Should Still Be.

Japan

SANKEI REAL ESTATE Inc. operates as an investment company. The Company mainly invests in real estate development industries. SANKEI REAL ESTATE offers services in Japan.

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Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)

3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on Hankyu Hanshin REIT (8977)

3D Investment Partners has launched a second partial tender offer to buy a 10-15% stake in a J-REIT. Also "meh" in price terms. It's a good long...

Travis Lundy

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shinko Electric Industries, MGM China, Decente, Sankei Real Estate,

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Excellent (8987) Has Been Most Excellent. It Should Still Be.

Japan Excellent has outperformed Office J-REIT Peers, big and small, and the TSEREIT Index since I wrote about a particular significant flow 2...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on Hankyu Hanshin REIT (8977)

3D Investment Partners has launched a second partial tender offer to buy a 10-15% stake in a J-REIT. Also "meh" in price terms. It's a good long...

Travis Lundy

Sankei Real Estate (2972) Sponsor Buy Now On And It Isn't Small (Even if the REIT Is)

The Sankei REIT buy program is now announced. Sankei Real Estate may be small, but this is big. And it starts from a low starting point.

Travis Lundy

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shinko Electric Industries, MGM China, Decente, Sankei Real Estate,

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Sponsor of Sankei Real Estate (2972) To Buy More Units in Revival Plan

Earnings remain burdened by low occupancy in Shinagawa. There's a plan to deal with that. Then there's a plan for the Sponsor to buy 9.99% of...

Travis Lundy

Japan Excellent (8987) Has Been Most Excellent. It Should Still Be.

Japan Excellent has outperformed Office J-REIT Peers, big and small, and the TSEREIT Index since I wrote about a particular significant flow 2...

Travis Lundy