European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As of end of H1, NAV was SEK 156 billion (SEK 361/share). NAV increased by 4%, gains in portfolio compensated by leverage increase. 5-y total return of 78.6% (OMX30, 76.4%).</li>
<li>Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 4.8% discount to NAV (vs. 8.3% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.</li>
<li>My target NAV is SEK 176,893 million. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 360.3 (4.6% upside).</li>
</ul>


As of end of H1, NAV was SEK 156 billion (SEK 361/share). NAV increased by 4%, gains in portfolio compensated by leverage increase. 5-y total return of 78.6% (OMX30, 76.4%).
Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 4.8% discount to NAV (vs. 8.3% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.
My target NAV is SEK 176,893 million. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 360.3 (4.6% upside).


Industrivärden: H1 Results, NAV Evolution and Discount

<ul>
<li>As of end of Q1, NAV was SEK 166.8 billion (SEK 386/share). NAV increased by 11% due to a sharp decrease in leverage, while the portfolio value rose by 6%.</li>
<li>Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 5.5% discount to NAV (vs. 8.8% average for the last 5 years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction.</li>
<li>My target NAV is SEK 173,116 million (SEK 400.8/share). My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 361.7.</li>
</ul>


As of end of Q1, NAV was SEK 166.8 billion (SEK 386/share). NAV increased by 11% due to a sharp decrease in leverage, while the portfolio value rose by 6%.
Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 5.5% discount to NAV (vs. 8.8% average for the last 5 years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction.
My target NAV is SEK 173,116 million (SEK 400.8/share). My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 361.7.


Industrivärden Q1 2024, NAV Evolution and Discount

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.</li>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.
As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.
Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks


Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

<ul>
<li>FY2023 was another year of value creation: 19% increase of NAV. Discount/NAV of C shares is 4.3%, below both the "usual" 15% conglomerate discount, and 5-year average of 9%.</li>
<li>C shares are trading at a 0% discount to A shares. My target NAV is SEK 158,215 million, an 8.5% increase. My target TP, assuming 5% discount/NAV, is SEK 329.5.</li>
<li>Implementing the typical holding discount trade would be risky. However, I would put on a reversal trade, betting on a widening of the discount up to around 7.5%-8%.</li>
</ul>


FY2023 was another year of value creation: 19% increase of NAV. Discount/NAV of C shares is 4.3%, below both the "usual" 15% conglomerate discount, and 5-year average of 9%.
C shares are trading at a 0% discount to A shares. My target NAV is SEK 158,215 million, an 8.5% increase. My target TP, assuming 5% discount/NAV, is SEK 329.5.
Implementing the typical holding discount trade would be risky. However, I would put on a reversal trade, betting on a widening of the discount up to around 7.5%-8%.


Industrivärden FY 2023, NAV Evolution and Discount

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EURO STOXX Indices for the September 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>Based on current rankings, there could be around 11 ADDs/DELs in the September 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>The completion of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avast-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33815:1" rel="noopener">Avast PLC (AVST LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meggitt-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22044:1" rel="noopener">Meggitt PLC (MGGT LN)</a> deals could result in intra-review changes in September 2022.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EURO STOXX Indices for the September 2022 Rebalance.
Based on current rankings, there could be around 11 ADDs/DELs in the September 2022 Rebalance.
The completion of the Avast PLC (AVST LN) and Meggitt PLC (MGGT LN) deals could result in intra-review changes in September 2022.


STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: 11 ADDs/DELs, Sandvik-Alleima, and More

Sweden

Alfa Laval AB provides specialized products and engineering solutions.  The Company's product line includes equipment and systems for heating, cooling, separation, and transportation of products such as oil, water, chemicals, beverages, starch, foodstuffs, and pharmaceuticals.  Alfa Laval sells and markets worldwide.

Aktiebolaget Volvo operates as a commercial vehicle manufacturer. The Company manufactures trucks, buses, engines, and construction equipment, as well as provides financial services. Volvo serves customers worldwide.

SKF AB develops, produces, and markets products, solutions, and services in the rolling bearing and seal business.  The Company's product line includes ball and roller bearings, specialty bearings, sealing systems, linear motion products, tools for mounting and dismounting bearings, and measuring and monitoring instruments.  SKF markets to industrial companies worldwide.

Trelleborg AB manufactures and distributes industrial products.  The Company produces noise supression and anti-vibration systems for the automobile industry and complete wheel systems for forest and farm machines and other equipment. Trelleborg also develops and makes industrial fluid systems and polymer and bitumen based building products.  The Company markets worldwide.

Beijer Alma AB, through subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and markets industrial components.  The Company makes specialty cables, industrial springs and wire components, valves, dampers, and ventilators, as well as precision parts using the high speed machining and salt bath dip brazing techniques. Beijer Alma sells to telecommunications, electronic, and high-tech companies.

VBG Group AB develops and manufactures equipment for heavy vehicles.  The Company markets trailer couplings with coupling equipment, anti-skid devices and dropside pillars, as well as shaft-hub connections and frictions springs for the machine industry.  VBG is also a distributor of fifth wheel products.  The Company sells its products in Europe, Asia, and North Ameria.

Indutrade AB provides engineering and equipment, flow technology, industrial components, and special products.  The Company sells its products to industrial companies primarily in Northern Europe.

Lifco AB operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides dental products, machinery and tools, sawmill equipment, contract manufacturing, vehicle interiors, and environmental technology. Lifco offers its products through a network of subsidiaries and partnerships worldwide.

Saab AB is a high technology company.  The Company develops, manufactures, and delivers advanced products for the defense market.  Saab's operations include defense technology, command and control systems, military and commercial aircraft, and technical services, as well as missiles, space equipment, and aviation services.  The Company sells and markets its products internationally.

AddTech AB offers high-tech industrial components and systems.  The Company creates customer specific solutions within the areas Equipment, Transmission, and Components.  AddTech works in close cooperation with both customers and suppliers.  The Company's largest customer segments are the engineering, telecommunications, automotive, and electronic industries in the Nordic area.

CRRC Corporation Limited manufactures rolling stock products. The Company produces locomotives, passenger carriages, freight wagons, vehicles key components, and other products. CRRC also provides vehicle repairing, investment management, and other services.

XCMG Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets a variety of construction machinery including road construction machinery, scrapers, concrete mixers and other related products.

XCMG Construction Machinery A (000425 CH)

FANUC CORPORATION manufactures factory automation (FA) systems and equipments, and robots. The Company's products include computerized numerically-controlled (CNC) equipment, servo motors, laser systems, industrial robots, wire-cut electric discharge machines, and CNC drill.  Fanuc participates in a joint venture with General Electric in the FA field.

Stanley Black & Decker Inc. is a diversified global provider of hand tools, power tools and related accessories, mechanical access and electronic security solutions, healthcare solutions, engineered fastening systems, and more.

Graco Inc. supplies technology for the management of fluids in both industrial and commercial applications.  The Company designs, manufactures, and markets systems to move, measure, control, dispense, and apply fluid materials.  Graco's products are used for applying paints and coatings, high-pressure cleaning of equipment, and lubricating and maintaining vehicles and other equipment.

China CSSC Holdings Ltd. offers shipbuilding, ship components, ship repairing and diesel engines manufacturing. The Company distributes its products within the domestic market and to overseas markets.

Nordson Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets systems that apply adhesives, sealants, and coatings to consumer and industrial products during manufacturing operations.  The Company's products include customized electronic controls for the precise application and curing of materials to meet customers' requirements.  Nordson operates around the world.

China Shipbuilding Industry Company Limited designs, manufactures, sells and leases ship parts.  The Company's products include engines and parts, auxiliay engines and transportation equipment.

Cummins India Limited manufactures internal combustion engines, including diesel, reciprocating piston, gas turbine and gasoline engines. The Company also manufactures generating sets and public transport-type passenger motor vehicles, including luxury coaches and air-field buses.  In addition, Cummins India Ltd. operates a computerized and fully-equipped research and development facility.

KOMATSU LTD. manufactures and sells construction and mining machinery, including excavators, bulldozers, and wheel loaders.  The Company, operating on a global scale, also produces forklift trucks and engineering equipment such as press system.

Sandvik AB is a high-technology engineering group.  The Company develops, manufactures, and markets tools for metalworking applications,  machinery and tools for rock excavation, stainless steel products, special alloys, and resistance heating materials and process systems.  Sandvik markets to industrial companies throughout the world, and tools can also be purchased online.

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Sandvik AB (SAND SS)

Industrivärden: H1 Results, NAV Evolution and Discount

End of H1, NAV was SEK 156 billion (SEK 361/share). NAV increased by 4%, gains in portfolio compensated by leverage increase. 5-y total return of...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Industrivärden Q1 2024, NAV Evolution and Discount

Industrivärden's NAV increased by 11% in Q1 due to decreased leverage, with C shares trading at a 5.5% discount. My target NAV is SEK 173,116...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Industrivärden FY 2023, NAV Evolution and Discount

FY2023 was another year of value creation: 19% increase of NAV. Discount/NAV of C shares is 4.3%, below both the "usual" 15% conglomerate discount,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: 11 ADDs/DELs, Sandvik-Alleima, and More

I see 11 ADDs/DELs based on current numbers but there are several other names that are only a small price change away from becoming ADDs/DELs

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Industrivärden: H1 Results, NAV Evolution and Discount

End of H1, NAV was SEK 156 billion (SEK 361/share). NAV increased by 4%, gains in portfolio compensated by leverage increase. 5-y total return of...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Industrivärden Q1 2024, NAV Evolution and Discount

​Industrivärden's NAV increased by 11% in Q1 due to decreased leverage, with C shares trading at a 5.5% discount. My target NAV is SEK 173,116...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Industrivärden FY 2023, NAV Evolution and Discount

FY2023 was another year of value creation: 19% increase of NAV. Discount/NAV of C shares is 4.3%, below both the "usual" 15% conglomerate discount,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: 11 ADDs/DELs, Sandvik-Alleima, and More

I see 11 ADDs/DELs based on current numbers but there are several other names that are only a small price change away from becoming ADDs/DELs

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Industrivärden's NAV increased by 11% in Q1 due to decreased leverage, with C shares trading at a 5.5% discount. My target NAV is SEK 173,116...