Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The local street hears KRX has bumped it up to 14.68%. With the 1% rounding applied, it becomes 15%.</li>
<li>It is extremely rare for a Fast Entry to come in with a float market cap of +₩10T. So, we will see significant weight adjustments for the other constituents.</li>
<li>As we move towards the implementation date, we can consider basket-shorting those high-impact names for LG Energy's long hedge.</li>
</ul>


The local street hears KRX has bumped it up to 14.68%. With the 1% rounding applied, it becomes 15%.
It is extremely rare for a Fast Entry to come in with a float market cap of +₩10T. So, we will see significant weight adjustments for the other constituents.
As we move towards the implementation date, we can consider basket-shorting those high-impact names for LG Energy's long hedge.


LG Energy's KOSPI 200 Float Is 15%: Weight Adjustment Trading for Other Constituents

<ul>
<li>For Kakao Bank, the 6M IPO lockup (2.79%) will hit the market. Also, the possibility that the 4.48% stake held by Anchor/TPG will hit the market should be left open.</li>
<li>In Krafton's case, Tencent is the most notable player, owning 13.56%. It recently suggested a reduction in overseas holdings. So, some of this 13.56% stake should appear in the market.</li>
<li>The 4.84% stake held by Premier Superior is available after February 14. Samsung Electronics and Samsung SDS shares by the Samsung family are also likely to take place in February.</li>
</ul>


For Kakao Bank, the 6M IPO lockup (2.79%) will hit the market. Also, the possibility that the 4.48% stake held by Anchor/TPG will hit the market should be left open.
In Krafton's case, Tencent is the most notable player, owning 13.56%. It recently suggested a reduction in overseas holdings. So, some of this 13.56% stake should appear in the market.
The 4.84% stake held by Premier Superior is available after February 14. Samsung Electronics and Samsung SDS shares by the Samsung family are also likely to take place in February.


KOSPI Overhang Stocks: Krafton, Kakao Bank, SKIET, Samsung Elec, & Samsung SDS

<ul>
<li>There are six local sector indexes in total, which have a meaningful level of AUM and will be rebalanced in December.</li>
<li>In KOSPI200 IT, LG Corp and Samsung SDS will face a positive flow, while SDI will have an outflow on December 9. KB Financial will replace POSCO in FnGuide TOP10.</li>
<li>Samsung SDI, Enchem, and Dear U deserve the most attention the next day (the 10th). Besides Dear U, RBW is another likely addition to both K-Metaverse and Metaverse Theme.</li>
</ul>


There are six local sector indexes in total, which have a meaningful level of AUM and will be rebalanced in December.
In KOSPI200 IT, LG Corp and Samsung SDS will face a positive flow, while SDI will have an outflow on December 9. KB Financial will replace POSCO in FnGuide TOP10.
Samsung SDI, Enchem, and Dear U deserve the most attention the next day (the 10th). Besides Dear U, RBW is another likely addition to both K-Metaverse and Metaverse Theme.


Korea Sector Indexes with December Rebalancing: Passive Impact by Date

Below is the amount of inheritance tax for Samsung founding family members. They were given a five-year grace period. So, one-sixth was paid on April 30th this year, the due date of payment, and the remaining five-sixths have to be paid by the end of each year over five years.In the case of Lee Jae-yong, the total inheritance tax is ₩2.90T, and he paid ₩0.48T in April of this year. And he has to make a total of 5 payments of ₩ 0.48T for five years from the end of this year.









The inheritance tax burden for each family member
Lee Jae-yong
Hong Ra-hee
Lee Bu-jin
Lee Seo-hyun


Total
₩2.90T
₩3.10T
₩2.60T
₩2.40T

 

: Already-paid (one-sixth) at April-end of 2021
₩0.48T
₩0.52T
₩0.43T
₩0.40T


Remaining (five-sixths)
₩2.42T
₩2.58T
₩2.17T
₩2.00T


: Due at the yearend of 2021
₩0.48T
₩0.52T
₩0.43T
₩0.40T

Source: DART &amp; KRX FIND

Of course, the inheritance tax of this size is not a small amount for them either. Their wealth consists mostly of stocks. Artworks and real estate are difficult to liquidate. Most of the cash consists of dividends, but short-term cash holdings are estimated to be negligible.Below are the shares they each hold.









Stake holding in %
Lee Jae-yong
Hong Ra-hee
Lee Bu-jin
Lee Seo-hyun


Samsung Electronics Co Ltd
1.63%
2.30%
0.93%
0.93%


Samsung Electronics Co Ltd Preference Shares Non Voting
0.02%
0.03%
0.02%
0.02%


Samsung C&amp;T Corp
18.13%
0.97%
6.24%
6.24%


Samsung Life Insurance co., Ltd
10.44%
0.00%
6.92%
3.46%


Samsung SDS Co Ltd
9.20%
0.00%
3.90%
3.90%

Source: DART &amp; KRX FIND

And below is the current market value of these shares. If we look at the value of their stakes, it is enough to pay the inheritance tax.









Stake holding in value
Lee Jae-yong
Hong Ra-hee
Lee Bu-jin
Lee Seo-hyun


Samsung Electronics Co Ltd
₩6.84T
₩9.63T
₩3.89T
₩3.89T


Samsung Electronics Co Ltd Preference Shares Non Voting
₩0.01T
₩0.01T
₩0.01T
₩0.01T


Samsung C&amp;T Corp
₩4.07T
₩0.22T
₩1.40T
₩1.40T


Samsung Life Insurance co., Ltd
₩1.47T
₩0.00T
₩0.97T
₩0.49T


Samsung SDS Co Ltd
₩1.12T
₩0.00T
₩0.47T
₩0.47T



: Total
₩13.50T
₩9.87T
₩6.75T
₩6.26T

Source: DART &amp; KRX FIND

The problem, however, is to pay the inheritance tax without compromising the control of the group.First, they appear to have covered their first payment in April by using dividends and credit loans.And they recently announced that they plan to cover the second payment at the end of this year through the sale of their shares. As shown below, they seem to have carefully chosen which to sell. In the case of Lee Bu-jin and Lee Seo-hyun (the daughters), the amount to be paid in the first and second payments and the amount raised by this year are roughly the same. Hong Ra-hee (the spouse) raised money (₩2.40T) that was significantly more than the amount owed right away (₩0.96T). The reason for this has not yet been clearly disclosed.









Personal financings
Lee Jae-yong
Hong Ra-hee
Lee Bu-jin
Lee Seo-hyun


Bank lines of credit: April 2021
₩0.00T
₩1.00T
₩0.33T
₩0.39T


: Annual interest rate
-
3.79%
2.40%
2.52%


: Annual interest payment
-
₩37.92B
₩7.94B
₩9.74B


: Lenders

Woori Bank, Hana Bank, KIC, &amp; Meritz Securities
Hana Bank &amp; KIC
Hana Bank, KIC, &amp; Hana Securities



Stake disposal (trust contract): October~December 2021
₩0.00T
₩1.40T
₩0.24T
₩0.48T


: Stake for sale
-
Samsung Electronics (0.33%)
Samsung SDS (1.95%)
Samsung SDS (1.95%) &amp; Samsung Life (1.73%)


: Trust institution
-
KB Bank
KB Bank
KB Bank


: Contract date
-
2021. 10. 05
2021. 10. 05
2021. 10. 05


: Contract ends
-
2022. 04. 25
2022. 04. 25
2022. 04. 25


: Disposal deadline
-
N/A
N/A
2021. 12. 24



: Total
₩0.00T
₩2.40T
₩0.57T
₩0.87T

Source: DART

And most importantly, Lee Jae-yong hasn't raised a dime this year. He appears to have made up his first payment with only the cash he had (probably financed mainly through dividends).Therefore, the market is interested in Lee Jae-yong's financing plan to pay the upcoming inheritance tax payments, which might have been one of the reasons why the stock prices of Samsung Electronics and Samsung SDS have continued to underperform the market.In the end, Jae-Yong Lee's only options for financing are dividends, bank loans, and the sale of shares. In the case of stake sale, Samsung Electronics and Samsung SDS are the only stakes that can be sold without damaging management rights.

Samsung Lee Family Inheritance Tax Payment Situation & Suggested Trading Positions

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

In this insight, we explain the recent minority shareholders upheaval of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS). </a>We also discuss the following important issues:<ul>
<li>Increasing concerns about the excessive inheritance taxes and the transition of the major shareholding from the former Chairman of Celltrion Group Seo Jung-Jin to his sons</li>
<li>The timing of the merger of the three major Celltrion companies (Celltrion Inc, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-healthcare" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23641:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-pharm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:992:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Pharm (068760 KS))</a>
</li>
<li>Rising inventory at Celltrion Healthcare &amp; tax Issue for Founder Seo Jung-Jin</li>
</ul>It was reported in the<a href="http://www.sisaweek.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=147919" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> local media</a> that some of the local minority shareholders of Celltrion have formed an "emergency response committee" in order to prepare for an official activist stance to urge the company to improve its corporate governance. In recent months, share price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> has declined significantly and this has made many minority shareholders very upset. Celltrion's share price has declined 44% since its highs in December 2020. Conclusion - There are numerous uncertainties facing Celltrion Inc right now. The two biggest uncertainties include the transfer of the controlling ownership stake from the founder Seo Jung-Jin to his two sons along with the merger of the three public Celltrion companies. A few retail minority shareholders formed an emergency response committee in order to raise more voice to improve corporate governance. In the midst of these uncertainties, we believe that there could be further weakness in Celltrion Inc. Although a merger of the three public Celltrion companies could boost the share price in the short term, there remain concerns about the excessive inventory at Celltrion Healthcare/Celltrion Inc and until the financials of the three companies on a merged basis become available, there could be continued negative sentiment on the company.

In this insight, we explain the recent minority shareholders upheaval of Celltrion Inc (068270 KS). We also discuss the following important issues:
Increasing concerns about the excessive inheritance taxes and the transition of the major shareholding from the former Chairman of Celltrion Group Seo Jung-Jin to his sons
The timing of the merger of the three major Celltrion companies (Celltrion Inc, Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS), and Celltrion Pharm (068760 KS))

Rising inventory at Celltrion Healthcare &amp; tax Issue for Founder Seo Jung-Jin
It was reported in the local media that some of the local minority shareholders of Celltrion have formed an "emergency response committee" in order to prepare for an official activist stance to urge the company to improve its corporate governance. In recent months, share price of Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) has declined significantly and this has made many minority shareholders very upset. Celltrion's share price has declined 44% since its highs in December 2020. Conclusion - There are numerous uncertainties facing Celltrion Inc right now. The two biggest uncertainties include the transfer of the controlling ownership stake from the founder Seo Jung-Jin to his two sons along with the merger of the three public Celltrion companies. A few retail minority shareholders formed an emergency response committee in order to raise more voice to improve corporate governance. In the midst of these uncertainties, we believe that there could be further weakness in Celltrion Inc. Although a merger of the three public Celltrion companies could boost the share price in the short term, there remain concerns about the excessive inventory at Celltrion Healthcare/Celltrion Inc and until the financials of the three companies on a merged basis become available, there could be continued negative sentiment on the company.

Celltrion Inc - The Minority Shareholders Upheaval & Concerns About Potential Inheritance Tax Issue

South Korea

Samsung SDS Co., Ltd. provides information technology services, such as consulting and technical services. The Company also offers outsourcing services including application outsourcing, IT infrastructure outsourcing, and cloud computing.

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Samsung Sds (018260 KS)

LG Energy's KOSPI 200 Float Is 15%: Weight Adjustment Trading for Other Constituents

KRX has bumped up LG Energy's float to 15%. As a result, we will see a more substantial passive impact on LG Energy. Also, we should see...

Sanghyun Park

KOSPI Overhang Stocks: Krafton, Kakao Bank, SKIET, Samsung Elec, & Samsung SDS

This post discusses the potential overhang stocks on KOSPI in February: Kakao Bank, Krafton, SKIET, Samsung Electronics, and Samsung SDS.

Sanghyun Park

Korea Sector Indexes with December Rebalancing: Passive Impact by Date

There are six local sector indexes in total, which have a meaningful level of AUM and will be rebalanced in December. This post tracks the passive...

Sanghyun Park

Samsung Lee Family Inheritance Tax Payment Situation & Suggested Trading Positions

This post examines the latest situation of the Samsung founding family's inheritance tax payment and explores appropriate trading positions.

Sanghyun Park

Celltrion Inc - The Minority Shareholders Upheaval & Concerns About Potential Inheritance Tax Issue

In this insight, we explain the recent minority shareholders upheaval of Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) and the potential timing of the merger of the...

Douglas Kim

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