Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Event-Driven

Things are getting complicated for Samsung. The prosecutors raid Samsung HQ office today in order to seize Samsung C&amp;T-Cheil Industries merger related documents/materials. What does this mean? The prosecution investigation on Samsung is getting to a whole new level. Was there really a dark connection involving Park administration, Samsung and NPS? Can the prosecutors really prove any wrongdoing of Samsung in relation to the C&amp;T-Cheil merger? These questions are extremely important. Why? Because they will have a profound impact on Samsung restructuring, which is arguably the most important factor for the stock prices of Samsung affiliates including SEC.

Things are getting complicated for Samsung. The prosecutors raid Samsung HQ office today in order to seize Samsung C&amp;T-Cheil Industries merger related documents/materials. What does this mean? The prosecution investigation on Samsung is getting to a whole new level. Was there really a dark connection involving Park administration, Samsung and NPS? Can the prosecutors really prove any wrongdoing of Samsung in relation to the C&amp;T-Cheil merger? These questions are extremely important. Why? Because they will have a profound impact on Samsung restructuring, which is arguably the most important factor for the stock prices of Samsung affiliates including SEC.

Possible Scenarios of Samsung Restructuring Amid Ongoing Prosecution Investigation

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

Friday saw the release of the Monthly Chinese monetary aggregates. M2 rose 11.6% year-over-year. Although this is one the lowest percentage growth rates in the past 20 years, the money stock is now so huge that the incremental growth remains outsized relative to both GDP and (form an FX point of view ) the equivalent growth in the USA. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/016/341/original/China-M2-growth-YoY-Last-Price_chartbuilder.png?1479113085" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="16341"></figure>Over the past 12 months China's money stock has risen from RMB136tr to RMB152tr (USD22.3tr at current fx rates) a growth of RMB16tr (USD2.35tr) in an economy that…

Friday saw the release of the Monthly Chinese monetary aggregates. M2 rose 11.6% year-over-year. Although this is one the lowest percentage growth rates in the past 20 years, the money stock is now so huge that the incremental growth remains outsized relative to both GDP and (form an FX point of view ) the equivalent growth in the USA. Over the past 12 months China's money stock has risen from RMB136tr to RMB152tr (USD22.3tr at current fx rates) a growth of RMB16tr (USD2.35tr) in an economy that…

Money Matters: Chinese Monetary Aggregates Point to Accelerating RMB Weakness.

Samsung Life Insurance made an interesting investment at a sensitive time. In a regulatory filing after the market closed on last Friday (Nov 11), Samsung Life announced that it agreed to buy ₩290bil (US$250mil) worth of treasury shares (8.36 million shares) in Samsung Securities. As a result, Life's total shareholdings in Samsung Sec will increase to 30.2%, which is the magic number (the 30% rule) to make it a subsidiary under the financial holdco system. On the surface, Life is saying that this decision was made to inject capital in Samsung Sec to boost the brokerage business. But not many people in the market accept what Samsung Life says at face value.

Samsung Life Insurance made an interesting investment at a sensitive time. In a regulatory filing after the market closed on last Friday (Nov 11), Samsung Life announced that it agreed to buy ₩290bil (US$250mil) worth of treasury shares (8.36 million shares) in Samsung Securities. As a result, Life's total shareholdings in Samsung Sec will increase to 30.2%, which is the magic number (the 30% rule) to make it a subsidiary under the financial holdco system. On the surface, Life is saying that this decision was made to inject capital in Samsung Sec to boost the brokerage business. But not many people in the market accept what Samsung Life says at face value.

Focus on Samsung Fire Instead of Samsung Card for Samsung's Financial Holdco Creation

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The Indian Government has taken a significant step in curbing the parallel economy by removing Rs500 and Rs1000 notes from circulation and plans to replace it with new notes. People having high-value notes will need to deposit it in a bank and exchange it for new notes until end December'16 ( and in the process, any large volume of cash deposits if undertaken will attract the tax authorities). High-value currency notes have always served as convenient storage points of undeclared and/or illegal…

The Indian Government has taken a significant step in curbing the parallel economy by removing Rs500 and Rs1000 notes from circulation and plans to replace it with new notes. People having high-value notes will need to deposit it in a bank and exchange it for new notes until end December'16 ( and in the process, any large volume of cash deposits if undertaken will attract the tax authorities). High-value currency notes have always served as convenient storage points of undeclared and/or illegal…

Demonetisation in India: High-Value Currency De-Notified; Con.Discretionary to Slow; Rate Cut Likely

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

It is frequently said that trying to trade politics is a fools errand, but it does impact the macro-economic direction.  Yesterday, China announced Finance Minister Lou Jiwei would be stepping down in favor of Xiao Jie who managed the tax administration department within the Ministry of Finance.We remain skeptical as to the state of the Chinese economy, not just when focused on public finances, but due to industrial policy.  For instance, debt for equity swap appears poorly conceived and failing to address the fundamental problems.  Coupled with state owned enterprise mergers that make inefficient firms even larger while remaining inefficient fail to inspire confidence.

It is frequently said that trying to trade politics is a fools errand, but it does impact the macro-economic direction.  Yesterday, China announced Finance Minister Lou Jiwei would be stepping down in favor of Xiao Jie who managed the tax administration department within the Ministry of Finance.We remain skeptical as to the state of the Chinese economy, not just when focused on public finances, but due to industrial policy.  For instance, debt for equity swap appears poorly conceived and failing to address the fundamental problems.  Coupled with state owned enterprise mergers that make inefficient firms even larger while remaining inefficient fail to inspire confidence.

What Is the Impact of Chinese Finance Ministry Reshuffle

South Korea

Samsung Life Insurance Co., Ltd. provides insurance services. The Company offers life and health insurance services. Samsung Life Insurance serves customers in South Korea.

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Samsung Life Insurance (032830 KS)

Possible Scenarios of Samsung Restructuring Amid Ongoing Prosecution Investigation

Things are getting complicated for Samsung. The prosecutors raid Samsung HQ office today in order to seize Samsung C&T-Cheil Industries merger...

Sanghyun Park

Money Matters: Chinese Monetary Aggregates Point to Accelerating RMB Weakness.

Friday saw the release of the Monthly Chinese monetary aggregates. M2 rose 11.6% year-over-year. Although this is one the lowest percentage growth...

Stewart Paterson

Focus on Samsung Fire Instead of Samsung Card for Samsung's Financial Holdco Creation

Samsung Life Insurance made an interesting investment at a sensitive time. In a regulatory filing after the market closed on last Friday (Nov 11),...

Sanghyun Park

Demonetisation in India: High-Value Currency De-Notified; Con.Discretionary to Slow; Rate Cut Likely

The Indian Government has taken a significant step in curbing the parallel economy by removing Rs500 and Rs1000 notes from circulation and plans to...

Asia Advisors

What Is the Impact of Chinese Finance Ministry Reshuffle

It is frequently said that trying to trade politics is a fools errand, but it does impact the macro-economic direction. Yesterday, China announced...

Christopher Balding

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