Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>FnGuide Samsung Group has the most AUM among locally themed indexes. As of last Friday's closing price, AUM is ₩1.52T.</li>
<li>The share price movements of Samsung Group affiliates basically show high cointegration. Therefore, a small differential impact on the flow significantly affects the short-term price direction of these stocks. </li>
<li>So, we should consider a long/short setup on a swing trading window. Particularly, we need to focus on the first two trading days, when the rebalancing impact is relatively significant.</li>
</ul>


FnGuide Samsung Group has the most AUM among locally themed indexes. As of last Friday's closing price, AUM is ₩1.52T.
The share price movements of Samsung Group affiliates basically show high cointegration. Therefore, a small differential impact on the flow significantly affects the short-term price direction of these stocks. 
So, we should consider a long/short setup on a swing trading window. Particularly, we need to focus on the first two trading days, when the rebalancing impact is relatively significant.


FnGuide Samsung Group Index Rebalancing Preview

<ul>
<li>As pre-announced a month ago, the total amount is approximately 500 billion won. The offering volume is 388M shares based on the preliminary price with a 20% discount rate.</li>
<li>K200 reflects the increase in the number of shares on the ex-date. As a result, ETFs/index funds must buy an increment on the day before the ex-date.</li>
<li>So, we can consider a long position setup aimed at this. Entry timing is 3-4 trading days from the ex-date.</li>
</ul>


As pre-announced a month ago, the total amount is approximately 500 billion won. The offering volume is 388M shares based on the preliminary price with a 20% discount rate.
K200 reflects the increase in the number of shares on the ex-date. As a result, ETFs/index funds must buy an increment on the day before the ex-date.
So, we can consider a long position setup aimed at this. Entry timing is 3-4 trading days from the ex-date.


Taihan Electric Wire Rights Offer: Ex-Date Play Aimed at K200 Passive Inflow

<ul>
<li>Taihan Electric Wire pre-announced a ₩500B rights offer. It seems that such a prior announcement of a rights offering has become a common practice in the local market.</li>
<li>This event offers suitable conditions for arb trading as Taihan Electric Wire is a member of KOSPI 200, making itself eligible for short-selling.</li>
<li>So we may set up our trading approach from two perspectives.</li>
</ul>


Taihan Electric Wire pre-announced a ₩500B rights offer. It seems that such a prior announcement of a rights offering has become a common practice in the local market.
This event offers suitable conditions for arb trading as Taihan Electric Wire is a member of KOSPI 200, making itself eligible for short-selling.
So we may set up our trading approach from two perspectives.


Taihan Electric Wire: Rights Offer Pre-Announcement Arb Event

<p>The subscription rights trade for Samsung Heavy Industries' rights offering started yesterday. It continues until next Wednesday, the 20th.</p>
<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="300">
<col width="300">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Schedule"}'>Schedule</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Preliminary pricing"}'>Preliminary pricing</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44453}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. mm. dd","3":1}'>2021. 09. 14</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ex-rights date"}'>Ex-rights date</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44455}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. mm. dd","3":1}'>2021. 09. 16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Record date"}'>Record date</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44456}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. mm. dd","3":1}'>2021. 09. 17</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Subscription rights trade beginning"}'><strong>Subscription rights trade beginning</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44483}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'><strong>2021. 10. 14</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Subscription rights trade ending"}'><strong>Subscription rights trade ending</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44489}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'><strong>2021. 10. 20</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Final pricing"}'><strong>Final pricing</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44494}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'><strong>2021. 10. 25</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Stockholder subscription"}'>Stockholder subscription</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44497}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'>2021. 10. 28</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Payment"}'>Payment</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44505}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy\". \"mm\". \"dd","3":1}'>2021. 11. 05</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Listing"}'><strong>Listing</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44519}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'><strong>2021. 11. 19</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" style="text-align: left;"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Short restriction begins"}'><strong>Short restriction begins</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44426}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'><strong>2021. 08. 18</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Short restriction ends"}'><strong>Short restriction ends</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44494}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'><strong>2021. 10. 25</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The total number of subscription rights listed for trading is 200 million shares. It is 80% of the offering volume, which can be seen as an appropriate level considering the controlling stake of about 20%.</p>
<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="300">
<col width="300">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Overview"}'>Subscription rights trading</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Target"}'>Target</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"A public offering of forfeited shares after offering to stockholders"}'>A public offering of forfeited shares after offering to stockholders</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Transferability"}'><strong>Transferability</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Renounceable"}'><strong>Renounceable</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" style="text-align: right;"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Volume"}'>
<p><strong>Offering volume</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":250000000}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'><strong>250,000,000</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Subscription rights listed for trading"}'><strong>Subscription rights listed for trading</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":199790168}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'><strong>199,790,168</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":": % of the offering volume"}'><strong>: % of the offering volume</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.799160672}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]/R[-2]C[0]"><strong>79.92%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" style="text-align: right;"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Oversubscription privilege"}'>Oversubscription privilege</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>20.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART &amp; KRX"}'>Source: DART &amp; KRX</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/235/246/original/image?1634248727" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="235246"></figure>
<p>The subscription rights traded yesterday were about 15 million shares or 7.36% of the listed rights. Well, this 7.36% isn't small by the local standards, but given the massive offering size, well it can be seen as a bit of disappointment.</p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Perhaps the main reason is that arb trading was not conducted aggressively because short selling was prohibited during the subscription rights trading period.</p>
</div>
<p>The subscription rights price was consistently above ₩930 yesterday, and the closing price was ₩965. The VWAP was ₩932.</p>
<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Subscription rights (₩)"}'>Subscription rights (₩)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Close"}'>Close</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Volume"}'>Volume</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Value"}'>Value</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"VWAP"}'>VWAP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44483}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"mm\"/\"dd","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]-1">10/14</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":965}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}'>₩965</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":14700190}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>14,700,190</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":13698716878}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}'>₩13,698,716,878</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":931.8734572818447}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[0]C[-2]">₩932</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="5" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX"}'>Source: KRX</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

The subscription rights trade for Samsung Heavy Industries' rights offering started yesterday. It continues until next Wednesday, the 20th.







Schedule


Preliminary pricing
2021. 09. 14


Ex-rights date
2021. 09. 16


Record date
2021. 09. 17


Subscription rights trade beginning
2021. 10. 14


Subscription rights trade ending
2021. 10. 20


Final pricing
2021. 10. 25


Stockholder subscription
2021. 10. 28


Payment
2021. 11. 05


Listing
2021. 11. 19





Short restriction begins
2021. 08. 18


Short restriction ends
2021. 10. 25


Source: DART



The total number of subscription rights listed for trading is 200 million shares. It is 80% of the offering volume, which can be seen as an appropriate level considering the controlling stake of about 20%.







Subscription rights trading


Target
A public offering of forfeited shares after offering to stockholders


Transferability
Renounceable






Offering volume

250,000,000


Subscription rights listed for trading
199,790,168


: % of the offering volume
79.92%





Oversubscription privilege
20.00%


Source: DART &amp; KRX




The subscription rights traded yesterday were about 15 million shares or 7.36% of the listed rights. Well, this 7.36% isn't small by the local standards, but given the massive offering size, well it can be seen as a bit of disappointment.

Perhaps the main reason is that arb trading was not conducted aggressively because short selling was prohibited during the subscription rights trading period.

The subscription rights price was consistently above ₩930 yesterday, and the closing price was ₩965. The VWAP was ₩932.










Subscription rights (₩)
Close
Volume
Value
VWAP


10/14
₩965
14,700,190
₩13,698,716,878
₩932


Source: KRX




Samsung Heavy Industries Subscription Rights Trading: Arb Spread Checkup

Equity Capital Markets

HD Hyundai Heavy Industries  / Equity Capital Markets

<h2>Attractive valuation compared with Samsung Heavy Industries</h2><p>Hyundai Heavy Industries' IPO book was opened yesterday.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Schedule"}'>Schedule</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Book open"}'>Book open</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44434}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy\". \"mm\". \"dd","3":1}'>2021. 08. 26</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Book close"}'>Book close</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44442}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy\". \"mm\". \"dd","3":1}'>2021. 09. 03</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Allotment"}'>Allotment</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44445}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy\". \"mm\". \"dd","3":1}'>2021. 09. 06</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Subscription"}'>Subscription</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44446}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy\". \"mm\". \"dd","3":1}'>2021. 09. 07</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Payment"}'>Payment</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44449}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy\". \"mm\". \"dd","3":1}'>2021. 09. 10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Listing"}'>Listing</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>TBD</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>In terms of valuation, the general view of the local investment industry is that it is okay. HHI's valuation stands out even more when compared to the issue price of Samsung Heavy's rights offering, which is HHI's direct local peer.</p><p>In general, order-receiving industries such as shipbuilding calculate valuations based on PBR. Based on yesterday's closing price and 2Q net assets, Samsung Heavy Industries' PBR stands at 1.28x. Considering the rights offering discount rate (15%), the offering price features a PBR of 1.09x.</p><p><strong>On the other hand, the offering price for Hyundai Heavy Industries is 0.77x at the lower end of the band and 0.89x at the upper end of the band. This means that Hyundai Heavy Industries is offering shares at a discount of up to 25% compared with Samsung Heavy Industries.</strong></p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Pricing"}'>Pricing</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Low"}'>Low</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"High"}'>High</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Price"}'>Price</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":52000}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"[$₩-412]#,##0",1]'>₩52,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":60000}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"[$₩-412]#,##0",1]'>₩60,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Base deal size"}'>Base deal size</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":936}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]*Terms!R8C2/1000000000">₩936.0B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1080}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]*Terms!R8C2/1000000000">₩1,080.0B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Institutional allotment (55%)"}'>- Institutional allotment (55%)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":514.8000000000001}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]*55%">₩514.8B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":594}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]*55%">₩594.0B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Implied market cap"}'>Implied market cap</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4616.202032}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-3]C[0]*R24C3/1000000000">₩4,616.2B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":5326.38696}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-3]C[0]*R24C3/1000000000">₩5,326.4B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Discount"}'>- Discount</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2981887872162388}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=(R25C3-R[-4]C[0])/R25C3">29.82%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.1902178314033525}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=(R25C3-R[-4]C[0])/R25C3">19.02%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"PBR"}'>PBR</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.7730160274911052}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00x"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]/sum(R21C3:R22C3)">0.77x</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.8919415701820443}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00x"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]/sum(R21C3:R22C3)">0.89x</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="3" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>Considering that Hyundai Heavy Industries is the No. 1 player in the local shipbuilding industry and Samsung Heavy Industries has been in the red for the past eight years, it seems clear that HHI's IPO price is attractive.</strong></p></div>

Attractive valuation compared with Samsung Heavy IndustriesHyundai Heavy Industries' IPO book was opened yesterday.





Schedule

Book open
2021. 08. 26


Book close
2021. 09. 03


Allotment
2021. 09. 06


Subscription
2021. 09. 07


Payment
2021. 09. 10


Listing
TBD

Source: DART

In terms of valuation, the general view of the local investment industry is that it is okay. HHI's valuation stands out even more when compared to the issue price of Samsung Heavy's rights offering, which is HHI's direct local peer.In general, order-receiving industries such as shipbuilding calculate valuations based on PBR. Based on yesterday's closing price and 2Q net assets, Samsung Heavy Industries' PBR stands at 1.28x. Considering the rights offering discount rate (15%), the offering price features a PBR of 1.09x.On the other hand, the offering price for Hyundai Heavy Industries is 0.77x at the lower end of the band and 0.89x at the upper end of the band. This means that Hyundai Heavy Industries is offering shares at a discount of up to 25% compared with Samsung Heavy Industries.







Pricing
Low
High


Price
₩52,000
₩60,000


Base deal size
₩936.0B
₩1,080.0B


- Institutional allotment (55%)
₩514.8B
₩594.0B


Implied market cap
₩4,616.2B
₩5,326.4B


- Discount
29.82%
19.02%


PBR
0.77x
0.89x

Source: DART

Considering that Hyundai Heavy Industries is the No. 1 player in the local shipbuilding industry and Samsung Heavy Industries has been in the red for the past eight years, it seems clear that HHI's IPO price is attractive.

Hyundai Heavy Industries IPO: Litigation Risks

South Korea

Samsung Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. manufactures crude oil tankers, container vessels, bulk carriers, cruisers, and passenger ferries.  The Company also produces steel and bridge structures, and material handling equipment.  In addition, Samsung Heavy Industries provides civil engineering, architectural, and plant construction services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Samsung Heavy Industries (010140 KS)

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This post details Taihan Electric Wire's rights offer and discusses the trade angle based on the previous event (Samsung Heavy Industries).

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Taihan Electric Wire: Rights Offer Pre-Announcement Arb Event

Taihan Electric Wire pre-announced a ₩500B rights offer, which offers suitable conditions for arb trading as it is eligible for short-selling. We...

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Samsung Heavy Industries Subscription Rights Trading: Arb Spread Checkup

This post examines the arbitrage spread status of the subscription rights trading for the Samsung Heavy Industries rights offer.

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Hyundai Heavy Industries IPO: Litigation Risks

As the legal and indemnity risks related to LG Energy Solutions' recall compensation have surfaced, Hyundai Heavy Industries' damage compensation...

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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