Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

Across our active Global fund universe, Value managers have seen $41bn in outflows over the past 5-years, compared to $65bn of inflows in to Growth funds.With Value funds capturing some long awaited outperformance this year, we analyse the current holdings set up among the 63 active Value funds in our analysis.Overweights in EMEA persist against underweights in Asia and the Americas.  Financials, Materials and Industrials are the key overweights versus underweights in Information Technology.US Financials are the standout overweight, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citigroup-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:279:1" rel="noopener">Citigroup Inc (C US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/american-express-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:916:1" rel="noopener">American Express Co (AXP US)</a> the key positions.  The FAAMG group of stocks remain key underweight holdings, though <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)</a> is the most widely held of the group. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> is almost totally avoided and in Asia, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a> screen as 'Unloved' by global active Value managers.

Across our active Global fund universe, Value managers have seen $41bn in outflows over the past 5-years, compared to $65bn of inflows in to Growth funds.With Value funds capturing some long awaited outperformance this year, we analyse the current holdings set up among the 63 active Value funds in our analysis.Overweights in EMEA persist against underweights in Asia and the Americas.  Financials, Materials and Industrials are the key overweights versus underweights in Information Technology.US Financials are the standout overweight, with Citigroup Inc (C US) and American Express Co (AXP US) the key positions.  The FAAMG group of stocks remain key underweight holdings, though Microsoft Corp (MSFT US) is the most widely held of the group. Tesla Motors (TSLA US) is almost totally avoided and in Asia, Meituan (3690 HK) , JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) and Pinduoduo (PDD US) screen as 'Unloved' by global active Value managers.

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The stock price has gone down further after we upgraded to Hold.</li>
<li>The market rushed to sell the stock after the 4Q20 result, but we believe that was a wrong action.</li>
<li>The gross margins of all business lines improved yoy in 4Q20.</li>
<li>We believe the revenue growth will accelerate in 2021.</li>
<li>We set an upside of 16% for the end of 2020. Upgrade to Buy.</li>
</ul>


The stock price has gone down further after we upgraded to Hold.
The market rushed to sell the stock after the 4Q20 result, but we believe that was a wrong action.
The gross margins of all business lines improved yoy in 4Q20.
We believe the revenue growth will accelerate in 2021.
We set an upside of 16% for the end of 2020. Upgrade to Buy.


Xiaomi (1810 HK): Market Was Wrong After 4Q20 Result, Upgrade to Buy

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

One thing that the Indonesian government did right during 2020 is the strict enforcement of IMEI registration in the country. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18869:1" rel="noopener">Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ)</a> is the key beneficiary to this and the only listed smartphone retailer in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jakarta-stock-exchange-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22914:1" rel="noopener">Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX)</a> with a decent market capitalization (USD 610 million). Besides <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industri-jamu-dan-farmasi-sido-muncul-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18869:1" rel="noopener">Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ)</a> seems to be another stock that benefited from COVID-19 through work-from-home and home-based-learnings arrangements. 
This year, the share price has been hovering around IDR 2600-2850 level caused by a lack of short-term catalyst.  The IMEI rule has certainly been the key factor for last year's revenue growth but after this, what's next? The short-term outlook for having Erajaya pales in comparison to its long-term prospect therefore after making a 76% return in 6 months, maybe it is time to realized some profit in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18869:1" rel="noopener">Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ)</a> . 
The long-term prospect remains bullish. As the smartphone penetration in Indonesia is set to increase from 70 to 89% in 2025, Erajaya is set to benefit from this although it is less appealing compared to the 2015 to 2020 period when the smartphone penetration jumped from 29% to 70% (130%).

One thing that the Indonesian government did right during 2020 is the strict enforcement of IMEI registration in the country. Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) is the key beneficiary to this and the only listed smartphone retailer in Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX) with a decent market capitalization (USD 610 million). Besides Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) , Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) seems to be another stock that benefited from COVID-19 through work-from-home and home-based-learnings arrangements. 
This year, the share price has been hovering around IDR 2600-2850 level caused by a lack of short-term catalyst.  The IMEI rule has certainly been the key factor for last year's revenue growth but after this, what's next? The short-term outlook for having Erajaya pales in comparison to its long-term prospect therefore after making a 76% return in 6 months, maybe it is time to realized some profit in Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) . 
The long-term prospect remains bullish. As the smartphone penetration in Indonesia is set to increase from 70 to 89% in 2025, Erajaya is set to benefit from this although it is less appealing compared to the 2015 to 2020 period when the smartphone penetration jumped from 29% to 70% (130%).

Erajaya (ERAA): Lack of Short Term Catalyst but March on Long Term

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

The Korea NPS set a record selling spree lately. The funds had extended stock sell-offs on KOSPI to a 51st straight session on March 12 since December 24 last year.It was a record in the local market history. The previous record was 28 consecutive sessions set from August 3 to September 9, 2009.The NPS finally wrapped the selling on March 15 but soon reversed to the selling position, and the ongoing sell-offs now extend to a 6th straight session.









KOSPI
Retail
Foreign
Local inst
Pension


2021-03-24
8,963
-4,780
-4,335
-2,262


2021-03-23
10,170
-4,769
-5,409
-3,399


2021-03-22
5,831
-5,465
-339
-1,744


2021-03-19
16,029
-5,806
-10,018
-2,196


2021-03-18
-6,174
4,823
1,344
-1,893


2021-03-17
10,483
-5,240
-5,339
-2,421


2021-03-16
-2,340
-262
2,491
851


2021-03-15
5,105
-2,133
-3,002
1,105


2021-03-12
-5,997
4,070
1,833
-850


2021-03-11
-11,110
17,069
-5,917
-3,022


2021-03-10
4,006
4,803
-8,891
-2,657


2021-03-09
3,631
-5,305
2,920
-421


2021-03-08
5,253
-1,258
-3,777
-2,728


2021-03-05
11,931
-3,734
-8,043
-1,954


2021-03-04
21,992
-9,293
-12,840
-3,220


2021-03-03
-6,631
-119
6,896
-472


2021-03-02
-6,249
2,081
4,371
-1,084


2021-02-26
37,785
-28,174
-10,301
-1,145


2021-02-25
-19,361
9,701
9,749
-345


2021-02-24
5,614
6,366
-825
-1,976


2021-02-23
773
-2,955
3,387
-211


2021-02-22
7,497
-3,155
-4,601
-3,831


2021-02-19
3,742
-2,981
-656
-856


2021-02-18
14,677
-8,571
-6,130
-3,286


2021-02-17
18,107
-4,815
-13,465
-3,538


2021-02-16
4,226
2,416
-6,685
-2,802


2021-02-15
-3,526
7,317
-4,193
-2,451


2021-02-10
1,302
7,520
-9,166
-3,224


2021-02-09
487
-2,223
1,568
-2,239


2021-02-08
847
-3,584
2,805
-2,206


2021-02-05
-4,021
1,900
2,343
-2,008


2021-02-04
24,704
-6,394
-18,357
-3,756


2021-02-03
1,239
4,265
-5,740
-3,576


2021-02-02
-1,883
1,966
-131
-3,664


2021-02-01
-7,825
1,319
6,892
-2,078


2021-01-29
16,971
-14,220
-2,544
-1,160


2021-01-28
19,294
-15,670
-3,794
-2,599


2021-01-27
10,604
-6,216
-3,961
-2,616


2021-01-26
42,050
-19,699
-22,520
-6,433


2021-01-25
-5,712
2,793
3,688
-2,073


2021-01-22
16,083
-2,680
-13,648
-3,753


2021-01-21
-625
3,683
-2,927
-2,702


2021-01-20
14,368
-2,368
-12,345
-3,949


2021-01-19
-10,254
4,100
5,940
-3,923


2021-01-18
5,143
-2,094
-2,789
-4,335


2021-01-15
21,139
-7,536
-14,147
-5,204


2021-01-14
7,127
6,775
-14,290
-5,978


2021-01-13
1,691
1,935
-3,725
-3,232


2021-01-12
23,124
-6,189
-17,239
-2,878


2021-01-11
44,921
-7,176
-37,432
-8,278


2021-01-08
-5,591
16,435
-11,479
-6,090


2021-01-07
-11,836
1,134
10,339
-4,411


2021-01-06
17,293
-3,975
-13,692
-4,396


2021-01-05
7,284
-2,082
-5,363
-3,400


2021-01-04
10,310
897
-11,899
-3,237


2020-12-30
-4,916
2,458
1,959
-1,003


2020-12-29
21,969
-3,106
-19,734
-1,978


2020-12-28
-9,460
780
8,303
-762


2020-12-24
-8,031
1,192
6,297
-988


Net
372,223
-86,229
-278,563
-156,937

Source: KRX

Why sell-offs?The NPS set the domestic equity target at 17.3% last year and 16.8% for this year.(Source: Korea NPS)As of the FY20 yearend, the weight soared to 21.2%, 3.9%p above the threshold.(Source: Korea NPS)But that was within the tolerable band.The NPS can operate the domestic stock funds within a total of ±5.0%p (SAA ±2.0%p + TAA ±3.0%p) allowable range.More specifically, it is said that the SAA ±2.0%p tolerable band is nearly filled up, whereas TAA ±3.0%p has a bit more room to breathe.Nonetheless, the NPS had to pre-emptively balanced out its investment in domestic stocks in its asset portfolio.







SAA &amp; TAA tolerable bands
SAA (strategic asset allocation)
TAA (tactical asset allocation)


Domestic bonds
±3.5%p
±5.0%p


Overseas bonds
±0.5%p
±1.0%p


Domestic stocks
±2.0%p
±3.0%p


Overseas stocks
±1.0%p
±1.0%p


Alternative
±1.2%p
±1.2%p

Source: Korea NPS



Korea NPS, Domestic Stock Asset Allocation Ratio Change

The last day to be eligible to receive the first quarter dividends is March 29, next Monday.The div payment is May 20.









Quarterly div schedule for FY2021
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q


The last day to be eligible
3/29
6/28
9/28
12/28


Ex-div
3/30
6/29
9/29
12/29


Div record
3/31
6/30
9/30
12/30


Div payment (tentative)
5/20
8/20
11/18
4/20 (2022)

Source: KRX

We have four quarterly div stocks on KOSPI 200: POSCO, Samsung Electronics, Ssangyong Cement Industry, and Hanon Systems.The quarterly div yields range from 0.37% (Hanon Systems) to 1.60% (Ssangyong Cement Industry) based on the FnGuide consensus, which is pretty much in line with the previous year.









1Q dividend stocks
Ticker
1Q div (est.)
Yearly div (est.)
Quarterly div yield


POSCO
005490
₩2,000
₩9,500
0.65%


Samsung Electronics Co Ltd
005930
₩361
₩1,443
0.44%


Ssangyong Cement Industry Co Ltd
003410
₩110
₩440
1.60%


Hanon Systems
018880
₩68
₩320
0.37%


Source: FnGuide



Now, let's check potential short recovering for these div stocks.For this, it is crucial to check the loaned stock balance and 52W performance.On KOSPI, Doosan Infracore is leading at 19.51% of SO.The four div stocks do not carry a lot in their balance: 1.95% POSCO, 1.16% SamE, 0.95% Ssangyong Cement Ind, and 0.89% Hanon Systems.









Loaned stock balance (KOSPI)
Ticker
Balance
% of SO
MC (₩B)


Doosan Infracore Co Ltd
042670
42,246,502
19.51%
2,053.0


Cosmax Inc
192820
1,837,956
18.29%
1,216.0


DL Holdings Co Ltd
000210
2,798,553
18.12%
1,336.8


Lotte Tour Development Co., Ltd.
032350
10,031,962
14.48%
1,305.8


LG HAUSYS, LTD.
108670
1,080,271
12.05%
722.8


LG Display Co Ltd
034220
32,306,260
9.03%
7,961.4


Hotel Shilla Co Ltd
008770
3,527,067
8.99%
3,441.6


Kyeryong Construction Industrial Co.
013580
719,601
8.06%
275.5


Samsung Heavy Industries Co., Ltd
010140
47,943,664
7.61%
4,263.6


Celltrion, Inc.
068270
9,330,378
7.49%
39,968.2


HMM Co Ltd
011200
23,377,269
7.07%
9,724.4


Hana Tour Service Inc
039130
947,217
6.80%
939.5


NS Shopping Co Ltd
138250
2,221,727
6.59%
394.2


Inscobee Inc
006490
6,225,990
6.07%
364.9


Wooridul Pharmaceutical Ltd
004720
838,212
5.70%
134.2


CJ Logistics Corp
000120
1,240,086
5.44%
3,992.2


Netmarble Corp
251270
4,580,308
5.33%
10,656.6


Jahwa Electronics Co Ltd
033240
939,220
5.25%
308.8


GS Retail Co Ltd
007070
3,969,424
5.16%
2,979.9



POSCO
005490
1,699,950
1.95%
26,722.8


Samsung Electronics Co Ltd
005930
69,482,398
1.16%
545,145.9


Ssangyong Cement Industry Co Ltd
003410
4,762,928
0.95%
3,466.6


Hanon Systems
018880
4,751,149
0.89%
9,741.9

Source: KOFIA

Similarly, all of them stay near 52WH. There is no sign of being oversold.









Name
Ticker
MC (₩B)
x 52WH
52WH date


Ssangyong Cement Industry Co Ltd
003410
3,466.6
0.93
12/11/20


POSCO
005490
26,722.8
0.92
3/9/21


Hanon Systems
018880
9,795.2
0.91
1/8/21


Samsung Electronics Co Ltd
005930
485,940.3
0.84
1/11/21

Source: KRX



KOSPI 200 1Q Quarterly Div Stocks: Status Check

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

Where Are Global Value Funds Positioned?

With Value funds capturing some long awaited outperformance this year, we analyse the current holdings set up among the active Global Value funds...

Steven Holden

Xiaomi (1810 HK): Market Was Wrong After 4Q20 Result, Upgrade to Buy

The market rushed to sell the stock after the 4Q20 result, but we believe that was a wrong action.The gross margins of all business lines improved....

Ming Lu

Erajaya (ERAA): Lack of Short Term Catalyst but March on Long Term

The short-term outlook for having Erajaya pales in comparison to its long-term prospect therefore after a 76% return in 6 months, maybe it is time...

Henry Soediarko

Korea NPS, Domestic Stock Asset Allocation Ratio Change

Korea NPS will likely decide on the local stock allocation ratio (SAA and TAA) to accommodate more local stocks in the portfolio. This post details...

Sanghyun Park

KOSPI 200 1Q Quarterly Div Stocks: Status Check

This post examines potential short recovering and spot/futures arb entry points of the four 1Q dividend stocks on KOSPI 200.

Sanghyun Park

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)