Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A key medium-term driver of share price is earnings estimate trajectory - in particular, "earnings inflections" - i.e. the trajectory of earnings estimates changing directions. </li>
<li>Different Asian markets have had different estimate trajectories. But most suffered estimate cuts since August/September 2024, coinciding with the US Dollar appreciation and the spike in US yields.</li>
<li>We argue that investors need to watch out for Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia and India for earnings estimate increases. India's could decline in the near term and commence an uptrend later. </li>
</ul>


A key medium-term driver of share price is earnings estimate trajectory - in particular, "earnings inflections" - i.e. the trajectory of earnings estimates changing directions. 
Different Asian markets have had different estimate trajectories. But most suffered estimate cuts since August/September 2024, coinciding with the US Dollar appreciation and the spike in US yields.
We argue that investors need to watch out for Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia and India for earnings estimate increases. India's could decline in the near term and commence an uptrend later. 


Asian Equities: In Search of Earnings Estimate Uptrends

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Local traders see interest rate cuts and value-up disclosures as key for timing Samsung Electronics 1P discount narrowing.</li>
<li>Samsung's only realistic value-up goal beyond 50% FCF return is improving ROE, likely through a pref-skewed buyback or cancellation program.</li>
<li>If Samsung announces a value-up plan during the Bank of Korea's rate cuts, local traders expect the 1P discount to reverse, targeting October-November for position entry.</li>
</ul>


Local traders see interest rate cuts and value-up disclosures as key for timing Samsung Electronics 1P discount narrowing.
Samsung's only realistic value-up goal beyond 50% FCF return is improving ROE, likely through a pref-skewed buyback or cancellation program.
If Samsung announces a value-up plan during the Bank of Korea's rate cuts, local traders expect the 1P discount to reverse, targeting October-November for position entry.


Local Market Observations on Timing Samsung Electronics 1P Discount Narrowing

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>SDC partners with Microsoft while VCs in India prioritize deep tech startups for innovation and growth.</li><li>Polish startup SEEDiA leads in smart urban infrastructure as AI hype in smart manufacturing is questioned for realistic outcomes.</li><li>Non-a-Si panels expected to dominate auto displays 2024-2029 as Indian opto-semiconductor maker acquires US-based IC equipment company.</li></ul>

SDC partners with Microsoft while VCs in India prioritize deep tech startups for innovation and growth.Polish startup SEEDiA leads in smart urban infrastructure as AI hype in smart manufacturing is questioned for realistic outcomes.Non-a-Si panels expected to dominate auto displays 2024-2029 as Indian opto-semiconductor maker acquires US-based IC equipment company.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (13-Aug-2024): SDC signs contract with Microsoft.

<ul><li>CoSAI is a collaboration between tech giants like Intel, Google, and IBM to drive innovation in the automotive industry.</li><li>Knobs and buttons are making a comeback in car interfaces, reflecting a trend in automotive design for more tactile controls.</li><li>Apple opposes Tata-Vivo partnership as Vivo marks its 10th anniversary in India, while Biden admin shows support for CHIPS Act to boost packaging and testing industry.</li></ul>

CoSAI is a collaboration between tech giants like Intel, Google, and IBM to drive innovation in the automotive industry.Knobs and buttons are making a comeback in car interfaces, reflecting a trend in automotive design for more tactile controls.Apple opposes Tata-Vivo partnership as Vivo marks its 10th anniversary in India, while Biden admin shows support for CHIPS Act to boost packaging and testing industry.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (01-Aug-2024): Top tech firms join CoSAI.

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.</li>
<li>Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) , S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.
Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.


EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)

Asian Equities: In Search of Earnings Estimate Uptrends

Earnings estimate trajectory, especially "earnings inflection," are key drivers of share price in Asian markets. We see potential uptrends in...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Local Market Observations on Timing Samsung Electronics 1P Discount Narrowing

Samsung Electronics and Hyundai Motor are expected to announce their value-up plans before the Korea Value-Up Index launches in mid-September....

Sanghyun Park

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (13-Aug-2024): SDC signs contract with Microsoft.

SDC partners with Microsoft, Indian VCs focus on deep tech startups, SEEDiA pioneers smart urban infrastructure, questioning AI hype in...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (01-Aug-2024): Top tech firms join CoSAI.

CoSAI partners with tech giants, car interfaces embrace knobs, Apple opposes Tata-Vivo, Biden supports CHIPS Act, Micron ships 9th-gen NAND, Taiwan...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Asian Equities: In Search of Earnings Estimate Uptrends

​Earnings estimate trajectory, especially "earnings inflection," are key drivers of share price in Asian markets. We see potential uptrends in...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Local Market Observations on Timing Samsung Electronics 1P Discount Narrowing

Samsung Electronics and Hyundai Motor are expected to announce their value-up plans before the Korea Value-Up Index launches in mid-September....

Sanghyun Park

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (13-Aug-2024): SDC signs contract with Microsoft.

SDC partners with Microsoft, Indian VCs focus on deep tech startups, SEEDiA pioneers smart urban infrastructure, questioning AI hype in...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (01-Aug-2024): Top tech firms join CoSAI.

CoSAI partners with tech giants, car interfaces embrace knobs, Apple opposes Tata-Vivo, Biden supports CHIPS Act, Micron ships 9th-gen NAND, Taiwan...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

​Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

Earnings estimate trajectory, especially "earnings inflection," are key drivers of share price in Asian markets. We see potential uptrends in...

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...