Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We provide an updated NAV analysis of Samsung C&amp;T, discuss the reduced overhang post final Lee family inheritance tax payment, and also provide further details of its Corporate Value-Up announcement. </li>
<li>Given 2025 will be the last year of major inheritance tax payment for the Lee family, there is likely to be reduced overhang associated with inheritance tax issue next year.</li>
<li>Our NAV analysis of Samsung C&amp;T suggests NAV of 39.9 trillion won or NAV per share of 224,249 won which is 45% higher from current levels.</li>
</ul>


We provide an updated NAV analysis of Samsung C&amp;T, discuss the reduced overhang post final Lee family inheritance tax payment, and also provide further details of its Corporate Value-Up announcement. 
Given 2025 will be the last year of major inheritance tax payment for the Lee family, there is likely to be reduced overhang associated with inheritance tax issue next year.
Our NAV analysis of Samsung C&amp;T suggests NAV of 39.9 trillion won or NAV per share of 224,249 won which is 45% higher from current levels.


Samsung C&T: Corporate Value-Up + Reduced Overhang Post Final Lee Family Inheritance Tax in 2025

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>Samsung C&amp;T’s holding company ratio is closing in on 50%, driven by the Biologics rally, which has Samsung on high alert for a forced conversion.</li>
<li>Watch Samsung's moves to avoid forced holding company status. The old Biologics-for-Electronics swap isn’t viable, so they’ll likely sell Biologics shares to lower the ratio.</li>
<li>Samsung C&amp;T might sell Biologics shares at a ₩80T market cap. They've boosted construction to manage assets and the holding ratio, but beyond ₩80T, risks increase.</li>
</ul>


Samsung C&amp;T’s holding company ratio is closing in on 50%, driven by the Biologics rally, which has Samsung on high alert for a forced conversion.
Watch Samsung's moves to avoid forced holding company status. The old Biologics-for-Electronics swap isn’t viable, so they’ll likely sell Biologics shares to lower the ratio.
Samsung C&amp;T might sell Biologics shares at a ₩80T market cap. They've boosted construction to manage assets and the holding ratio, but beyond ₩80T, risks increase.


Trading Plays on Samsung C&T’s Holding Company Shift and Biologics Share Sell-Off

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Aug 30th which has an aggregated holding worth USD581.5bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,386mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in Sk Hynix (000660 KS), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS).</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Aug 30th which has an aggregated holding worth USD581.5bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,386mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in Sk Hynix (000660 KS), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS).


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 30th): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics

<ul>
<li>Construction and semiconductors are key targets due to their low value-up representation. For shareholder returns, keep an eye on Samsung C&amp;T and SK Square.</li>
<li>Expect announcements before the mid-September value-up index, with early September releases mirroring LG Electronics' prior notices and detailed plans arriving by Q4.</li>
<li>Even with prior notices, details will leak. Samsung C&amp;T and SK Square are likely to prioritize short-term shareholder returns over long-term growth, potentially leading to a bigger price impact.</li>
</ul>


Construction and semiconductors are key targets due to their low value-up representation. For shareholder returns, keep an eye on Samsung C&amp;T and SK Square.
Expect announcements before the mid-September value-up index, with early September releases mirroring LG Electronics' prior notices and detailed plans arriving by Q4.
Even with prior notices, details will leak. Samsung C&amp;T and SK Square are likely to prioritize short-term shareholder returns over long-term growth, potentially leading to a bigger price impact.


Keep an Eye on Samsung C&T & SK Square as the Next Hot Picks for Value-Up Announcements

<ul>
<li>Hyundai’s TSR target is 35%+ (dividends plus buybacks), up 10 percentage points from previous years. They’ve also set a new annual dividend of ₩10,000, paid evenly quarterly.</li>
<li>Hyundai's Value-Up targets may not fully meet market expectations, but the key is the timing. By aligning early with government policies, Hyundai has reduced risks and secured investment flow.</li>
<li>Hyundai plans a pref-skewed buyback, likely continuing this approach as retiring preferred shares first may boost ROE.</li>
</ul>


Hyundai’s TSR target is 35%+ (dividends plus buybacks), up 10 percentage points from previous years. They’ve also set a new annual dividend of ₩10,000, paid evenly quarterly.
Hyundai's Value-Up targets may not fully meet market expectations, but the key is the timing. By aligning early with government policies, Hyundai has reduced risks and secured investment flow.
Hyundai plans a pref-skewed buyback, likely continuing this approach as retiring preferred shares first may boost ROE.


Hyundai Motor's Value-Up Disclosure: Trading Implications from Release Timing & Pref-Skewed Buyback

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)

Samsung C&T: Corporate Value-Up + Reduced Overhang Post Final Lee Family Inheritance Tax in 2025

We provide an updated NAV analysis of Samsung C&T, discuss the reduced overhang post final Lee family inheritance tax payment, and provide further...

Douglas Kim

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 30th): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Sk Hynix, Samsungelec.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Keep an Eye on Samsung C&T & SK Square as the Next Hot Picks for Value-Up Announcements

This post dives into the potential for Samsung C&T and SK Square to be the next big players in value-up announcements and explores the likely price...

Sanghyun Park

Hyundai Motor's Value-Up Disclosure: Trading Implications from Release Timing & Pref-Skewed Buyback

This post examines Hyundai Motor's Value-Up disclosure released today, focusing on potential trading implications, especially regarding the timing...

Sanghyun Park

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Samsung C&T: Corporate Value-Up + Reduced Overhang Post Final Lee Family Inheritance Tax in 2025

We provide an updated NAV analysis of Samsung C&T, discuss the reduced overhang post final Lee family inheritance tax payment, and provide further...

Douglas Kim

Trading Plays on Samsung C&T’s Holding Company Shift and Biologics Share Sell-Off

This post explores trading angles triggered by Samsung C&T’s forced holding company conversion issue, caused by the rise in Samsung Biologics'...

Sanghyun Park

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 30th): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Sk Hynix, Samsungelec.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Keep an Eye on Samsung C&T & SK Square as the Next Hot Picks for Value-Up Announcements

This post dives into the potential for Samsung C&T and SK Square to be the next big players in value-up announcements and explores the likely price...

Sanghyun Park

Hyundai Motor's Value-Up Disclosure: Trading Implications from Release Timing & Pref-Skewed Buyback

This post examines Hyundai Motor's Value-Up disclosure released today, focusing on potential trading implications, especially regarding the timing...

Sanghyun Park