Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The AI GPU market has been exploding, and this has turned the DRAM market's downturn into a strong upturn</li>
<li>With this growth, DRAM manufacturers have seen their business turn around, thanks to increased use of HBM</li>
<li>Two questions concern us: Will AI growth last? Will increased competition in HBM DRAM create a price collapse?</li>
</ul>


The AI GPU market has been exploding, and this has turned the DRAM market's downturn into a strong upturn
With this growth, DRAM manufacturers have seen their business turn around, thanks to increased use of HBM
Two questions concern us: Will AI growth last? Will increased competition in HBM DRAM create a price collapse?


The Big Question: Can Today's AI Surge Last?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Competition in the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) space is intensifying; Micron shares have rallied after it announced HBM3e mass production; SK Hynix has outperformed since its earnings release.</li>
<li>Nvidia's H200, its most advanced chip for generative AI, leans heavily on HBM3e memory for its increased performance vs. the previous H100 generation. Memory leaders are key for Nvidia's success.</li>
<li>Taiwan's Nanya Tech appears to be watching HBM competition between Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung from the sidelines; can its shares get back into the game?</li>
</ul>


Competition in the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) space is intensifying; Micron shares have rallied after it announced HBM3e mass production; SK Hynix has outperformed since its earnings release.
Nvidia's H200, its most advanced chip for generative AI, leans heavily on HBM3e memory for its increased performance vs. the previous H100 generation. Memory leaders are key for Nvidia's success.
Taiwan's Nanya Tech appears to be watching HBM competition between Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung from the sidelines; can its shares get back into the game?


Memory Monitor: Competition Is Hotting Up for Key Memory Chips Nvidia Depends On

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>2023 DRAM + NAND revenues declined 36% YoY from $140.3 billion to $89.2 billion. This followed a 14% decline YoY in 2022.</li>
<li>Forecasting ~40% YoY growth in 2024, bringing overall memory revenues back to roughly 2022 levels</li>
<li>ASML's Memory-related WFE revenue in 2023 was an all time record high at $5.9 billion. Much of that was spent in China and its impact remains to be seen..</li>
</ul>


2023 DRAM + NAND revenues declined 36% YoY from $140.3 billion to $89.2 billion. This followed a 14% decline YoY in 2022.
Forecasting ~40% YoY growth in 2024, bringing overall memory revenues back to roughly 2022 levels
ASML's Memory-related WFE revenue in 2023 was an all time record high at $5.9 billion. Much of that was spent in China and its impact remains to be seen..


Semiconductor Memory 2023 In Review, 2024 Outlook

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite average weights falling from over 6% in 2020 to under 2% today, 73% of EM funds remain invested in Alibaba.</li>
<li>The make up of the investor base has changed, with a rotation between high growth investors (out) and Value investors (in).</li>
<li>Of the 73% of current holders, the core portfolio weight range sits between 1.5% and 3%, with the most bullish topping out at 5%+</li>
</ul>


Despite average weights falling from over 6% in 2020 to under 2% today, 73% of EM funds remain invested in Alibaba.
The make up of the investor base has changed, with a rotation between high growth investors (out) and Value investors (in).
Of the 73% of current holders, the core portfolio weight range sits between 1.5% and 3%, with the most bullish topping out at 5%+


Alibaba Group Holdings: EM Fund Positioning Update

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

SAMSUNGACTIVE KoAct Dividend Growth ETF / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Samsung KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF (476850F.KS) raised around US$7.4m and started trading on 27 February.</li>
<li>There are 45 stocks in the ETF and the aim is to beat the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22911:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)</a> by employing an active management strategy. </li>
<li>Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Industrials stocks make up nearly two-thirds of the ETF, the dividend yield of the underlying basket is 4% and the forward dividend yield is slightly higher.</li>
</ul>


The Samsung KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF (476850F.KS) raised around US$7.4m and started trading on 27 February.
There are 45 stocks in the ETF and the aim is to beat the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX) by employing an active management strategy. 
Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Industrials stocks make up nearly two-thirds of the ETF, the dividend yield of the underlying basket is 4% and the forward dividend yield is slightly higher.


Samsung KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF: A Look at the First Corporate Value-Up ETF

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (SMSN LI)

The Big Question: Can Today's AI Surge Last?

Today there's a surge in AI spending, and this has led to a recovery for DRAM makers. This Insight questions where this money is coming from, and...

Jim Handy

Memory Monitor: Competition Is Hotting Up for Key Memory Chips Nvidia Depends On

Memory competition is intensifying with Micron and Samsung's latest HBM3e production announcements. Nvidia's GPUs lean heavily on performance...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductor Memory 2023 In Review, 2024 Outlook

2023 memory revenues -36% YoY from $140.3 billion to $89.2 billion. This followed a 14% decline YoY in 2022. Forecasting >40% YoY growth in 2024,...

William Keating

Alibaba Group Holdings: EM Fund Positioning Update

Fund managers remain committed to Alibaba despite the ongoing poor price performance. Value investors move in as Growth investors move out.

Steven Holden

Samsung KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF: A Look at the First Corporate Value-Up ETF

The Samsung KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF (476850F.KS) raised around US$7.4m and started trading on 27 February. The div yield of the underlying...

Brian Freitas

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Market Cap (USDm)

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The Big Question: Can Today's AI Surge Last?

Today there's a surge in AI spending, and this has led to a recovery for DRAM makers. This Insight questions where this money is coming from, and...

Jim Handy

Memory Monitor: Competition Is Hotting Up for Key Memory Chips Nvidia Depends On

​Memory competition is intensifying with Micron and Samsung's latest HBM3e production announcements. Nvidia's GPUs lean heavily on performance...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductor Memory 2023 In Review, 2024 Outlook

2023 memory revenues -36% YoY from $140.3 billion to $89.2 billion. This followed a 14% decline YoY in 2022. Forecasting >40% YoY growth in 2024,...

William Keating

Alibaba Group Holdings: EM Fund Positioning Update

Fund managers remain committed to Alibaba despite the ongoing poor price performance. Value investors move in as Growth investors move out.

Steven Holden

Samsung KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF: A Look at the First Corporate Value-Up ETF

The Samsung KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF (476850F.KS) raised around US$7.4m and started trading on 27 February. The div yield of the underlying...

Brian Freitas

Memory competition is intensifying with Micron and Samsung's latest HBM3e production announcements. Nvidia's GPUs lean heavily on performance...