Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/micron-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13382:1" rel="noopener">Micron</a> reported FQ4 revenues of $6.1 billion, in line with expectations and up 12% sequentially and up 25% YoY. It was a solid result and was the company's third successive quarter of increasing revenues and net income. However, Micron's revenue forecast for the current quarter of $5.2 billion at the midpoint, along with a 7.4 percentage points sequential decline in gross margin, sent the company's share price tumbling in after hours trading. NAND pricing and the loss of Huawei's business were two of the key headwinds pointing to stormy waters ahead for Micron.</p>

Micron reported FQ4 revenues of $6.1 billion, in line with expectations and up 12% sequentially and up 25% YoY. It was a solid result and was the company's third successive quarter of increasing revenues and net income. However, Micron's revenue forecast for the current quarter of $5.2 billion at the midpoint, along with a 7.4 percentage points sequential decline in gross margin, sent the company's share price tumbling in after hours trading. NAND pricing and the loss of Huawei's business were two of the key headwinds pointing to stormy waters ahead for Micron.

Micron. Solid FQ4 But Mounting Headwinds Point To Stormy Waters Ahead

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory, ROK Advisory LLC

Ken S. Kim

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory

ROK Advisory LLC

ROK is an independent research advisory firm. We guide you to minimize the information gap between foreign and local investors in Northeast Asia with a focus in Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

Independent Research Advisory Firm

<p>Update of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/micron-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13382:1" rel="noopener">Micron Technology (MU US)</a> earnings,  making sense of the different inventory situation between the investment outlook and strategy as we head into 4Q20 and into 2021.   While the expected recovery was pushed back to 2H21 from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/micron-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13382:1" rel="noopener">Micron Technology (MU US)</a> hurt sentiment, we still believe it is an excellent chance to BUY and here's why.</p>

Update of Micron Technology (MU US) earnings,  making sense of the different inventory situation between the investment outlook and strategy as we head into 4Q20 and into 2021.   While the expected recovery was pushed back to 2H21 from Micron Technology (MU US) hurt sentiment, we still believe it is an excellent chance to BUY and here's why.

Semi Memory Investing - Don't Be a Smart Aleck

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<p>Sometimes, the "ESG stuff" can really alter the outcome of an IPO. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saudi-aramco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27317:1" rel="noopener">Saudi Aramco (ARAMCO AB)</a> debut was curbed by Environmental concerns. WeWork's failed IPO is a case study in founder-led Governance risk. Palantir quashed its "adjustable voting power for founders" after an uproar.</p>
<p>ESG impacts IPOs. But not Ant's IPO.</p>
<p>Ant's ESG profile is strong. There a few skeletons in the closet if you look hard enough, but they are bygone and irrelevant . Current ESG blemishes are minor. There isn't much dirt for ESG idealists to wallow in. If they are even looking at all; as a "China deal," ESG has a different relevance for Ant.</p>
<p>Ant's IPO is a momentous ESG event, but not in the traditional and obvious way.</p>
<p>This is not about ESG impacting Ant's IPO. This is about Ant's IPO impacting ESG.</p>
<p>Looking at Ant through a typical ESG lens will make one's head spin. But step back and look again, and it becomes clear that Ant is a strategically-integrated masterpiece at the vanguard of a critical crossroads – the intersection of Fintech, financial inclusion, green finance, and sustainability.</p>
<p>It is all a matter of perspective.</p>
<p>Seeing the forest for the trees.</p>

Sometimes, the "ESG stuff" can really alter the outcome of an IPO. The Saudi Aramco (ARAMCO AB) debut was curbed by Environmental concerns. WeWork's failed IPO is a case study in founder-led Governance risk. Palantir quashed its "adjustable voting power for founders" after an uproar.
ESG impacts IPOs. But not Ant's IPO.
Ant's ESG profile is strong. There a few skeletons in the closet if you look hard enough, but they are bygone and irrelevant . Current ESG blemishes are minor. There isn't much dirt for ESG idealists to wallow in. If they are even looking at all; as a "China deal," ESG has a different relevance for Ant.
Ant's IPO is a momentous ESG event, but not in the traditional and obvious way.
This is not about ESG impacting Ant's IPO. This is about Ant's IPO impacting ESG.
Looking at Ant through a typical ESG lens will make one's head spin. But step back and look again, and it becomes clear that Ant is a strategically-integrated masterpiece at the vanguard of a critical crossroads – the intersection of Fintech, financial inclusion, green finance, and sustainability.
It is all a matter of perspective.
Seeing the forest for the trees.

Ant Group Pre-IPO ESG Assessment: Seeing the Forest for the Trees

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Event-Driven

<p>Samsung's year-end dividend prospect should be very appealing as a special dividend of ₩1,450 per ordinary share is becoming more likely.</p><p>But how can we hedge for this dividend play?</p><p>Well, I guess the only option would be shorting Samsung's single-stock futures.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="300">
<col width="600">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Single stock futures"}'>Samsung Electronics single stock futures</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Trade multiple"}'>Trade multiple</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":10}'>10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Contract size"}'>Contract size</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Futures price × trade multiple (10)"}'>Futures price × trade multiple (10)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Tick (KOSPI)"}'><div>Tick</div></td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"₩100: ₩50,000 ≤ futures price &lt; ₩100,000"}'>₩100: ₩50,000 ≤ futures price &lt; ₩100,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td rowspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Settlement months"}'><div>Settlement months</div></td>
<td rowspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"A total of 9 settlement months within 3 years: 2 (March &amp; September), 2 (June), 3 (December), &amp; 2 (remaining months)"}'><div>A total of 9 settlement months within three years: 2 (March &amp; September), 2 (June), 3 (December), &amp; 2 (remaining months)</div></td>
</tr>
<tr></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Last trading day"}'>Last trading day</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"2nd Thursday of each settlement month"}'>2nd Thursday of each settlement month</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"First trading day"}'>First trading day</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"The following day of the last trading day"}'>The following day of the last trading day</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Trading hours - regular trading day"}'>Trading hours - regular trading day</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"09:00~15:45 (single-price trade 08:00~09:00 / 15:35~15:45)"}'>09:00~15:45 (single-price trade 08:00~09:00 / 15:35~15:45)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Trading hours - last trading day"}'>Trading hours - last trading day</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"09:00~15:20 (single-price trade 08:00~09:00)"}'>09:00~15:20 (single-price trade 08:00~09:00)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Price ceiling"}'>Price ceiling</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Reference price ① ±10% ② ±20% ③ ±30% (incremental)"}'>Reference price ① ±10% ② ±20% ③ ±30% (incremental)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Customer margin (or initial margin)"}'>Customer margin (or initial margin)</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"10~30%"}'>10~30%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Maintenance margin"}'>Maintenance margin</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"5~20%"}'>5~20%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Margin settlement deadline"}'>Margin settlement deadline</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"16:00 on T+1"}'>16:00 on T+1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Final settlement price"}'>Final settlement price</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Closing cash price of the last trading day"}'>The closing cash price of the last trading day</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX"}'><em>Source: KRX</em></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>

Samsung's year-end dividend prospect should be very appealing as a special dividend of ₩1,450 per ordinary share is becoming more likely.But how can we hedge for this dividend play?Well, I guess the only option would be shorting Samsung's single-stock futures.





Samsung Electronics single stock futures

Trade multiple
10


Contract size
Futures price × trade multiple (10)


Tick
₩100: ₩50,000 ≤ futures price &lt; ₩100,000


Settlement months
A total of 9 settlement months within three years: 2 (March &amp; September), 2 (June), 3 (December), &amp; 2 (remaining months)



Last trading day
2nd Thursday of each settlement month


First trading day
The following day of the last trading day


Trading hours - regular trading day
09:00~15:45 (single-price trade 08:00~09:00 / 15:35~15:45)


Trading hours - last trading day
09:00~15:20 (single-price trade 08:00~09:00)


Price ceiling
Reference price ① ±10% ② ±20% ③ ±30% (incremental)


Customer margin (or initial margin)
10~30%


Maintenance margin
5~20%


Margin settlement deadline
16:00 on T+1


Final settlement price
The closing cash price of the last trading day

Source: KRX



Samsung Dividend Play, Hedging-Adjusted with Futures

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

<p>The market expectation on Samsung Electronics' earnings improvement in the immediate term is growing.</p><p>The local street consensus has improved by 7% (OP-wise) since three months ago.</p><p>But if compiling only the recently revised ones, the current expectation is somewhere around ₩37T, which is a 15% improvement.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="300">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"POSCO, FY2020 (₩B)"}' data-sheets-formula='=R[-34]C[1]&amp;", FY2020 (₩B)"'>Samsung Electronics, FY2020 (₩B)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44103}' data-sheets-formula="=today()">2020. 9. 29</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-1M"}'>T-1M</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-3M"}'>T-3M</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-6M"}'>T-6M</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-1Y"}'>T-1Y</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Sales"}'>Sales</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":235569.1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">235,569.1</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":233170.2}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">233,170.2</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":230392.4}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">230,392.4</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":249611.9}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">249,611.9</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":246984.8}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">246,984.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"OP"}'><strong>OP</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":34237.5}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10"><strong>34,237.5</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":32553.8}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10"><strong>32,553.8</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":32039.6}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10"><strong>32,039.6</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":38411}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">38,411.0</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":35812.5}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">35,812.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"NP to controlling stake"}'>NP to controlling stake</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":25776.4}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">25,776.4</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":24626.3}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">24,626.3</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":24719.4}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">24,719.4</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":29700.3}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">29,700.3</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":27894.1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]/10">27,894.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"EPS (₩)"}'>EPS (₩)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":3795}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">3,795</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":3625}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">3,625</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":3639}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">3,639</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4372}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">4,372</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4107}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">4,107</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"PER (x)"}'>PER (x)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":15.3}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">15.30</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":15.3}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">15.30</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":14.7}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">14.70</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":11.1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">11.10</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":11.8}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">11.80</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"12M PER (x)"}'>12M PER (x)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":12.38}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">12.38</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":12.44}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">12.44</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":12.28}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">12.28</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":10.19}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">10.19</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":12.52}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">12.52</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"TP (₩)"}'>TP (₩)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":75258}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">75,258</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":71592}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">71,592</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":65167}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">65,167</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":67770}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">67,770</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":56045}' data-sheets-formula="=R[34]C[0]">56,045</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="6" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: FnGuide"}'><em>Source: FnGuide</em></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>Then, implications for year-end dividend?</p><p>Yes, it means we now have a higher chance of enjoying other shareholder returns for this year.</p>

The market expectation on Samsung Electronics' earnings improvement in the immediate term is growing.The local street consensus has improved by 7% (OP-wise) since three months ago.But if compiling only the recently revised ones, the current expectation is somewhere around ₩37T, which is a 15% improvement.










Samsung Electronics, FY2020 (₩B)
2020. 9. 29
T-1M
T-3M
T-6M
T-1Y


Sales
235,569.1
233,170.2
230,392.4
249,611.9
246,984.8


OP
34,237.5
32,553.8
32,039.6
38,411.0
35,812.5


NP to controlling stake
25,776.4
24,626.3
24,719.4
29,700.3
27,894.1


EPS (₩)
3,795
3,625
3,639
4,372
4,107


PER (x)
15.30
15.30
14.70
11.10
11.80


12M PER (x)
12.38
12.44
12.28
10.19
12.52


TP (₩)
75,258
71,592
65,167
67,770
56,045

Source: FnGuide

Then, implications for year-end dividend?Yes, it means we now have a higher chance of enjoying other shareholder returns for this year.

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Samsung Electronics (SMSN LI)

Micron. Solid FQ4 But Mounting Headwinds Point To Stormy Waters Ahead

Micron reported FQ4 revenues of $6.1 bil

William Keating

Semi Memory Investing - Don't Be a Smart Aleck

Update of

Ken S. Kim

Ant Group Pre-IPO ESG Assessment: Seeing the Forest for the Trees

xxxx Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim...

Kyle Rudden

Samsung Dividend Play, Hedging-Adjusted with Futures

???

Sanghyun Park

Samsung Year-End Dividend Play Situation

Samsung Electronics'

Sanghyun Park

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)