Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A third of the way through the review period of the June rebalance, we see one potential index change with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> could move lower in the short-term due to the public issue of shares but should find support from passive buying from local and global index trackers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> has underperformed most of its peers by a wide margin over the last year and the passive selling could provide an entry point.</li>
</ul>


A third of the way through the review period of the June rebalance, we see one potential index change with Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) replacing Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN). 

Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) could move lower in the short-term due to the public issue of shares but should find support from passive buying from local and global index trackers.

Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) has underperformed most of its peers by a wide margin over the last year and the passive selling could provide an entry point.


SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Adani Enterprises Could Replace Wipro

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>After 9.7%YoY growth in 1HFY23, we expect real GDP growth of 7.5% for the full FY23, led by investment spending, which is being crowded-in as the fiscal deficit stays contained. </li>
<li>Nominal GDP grew 16.2%YoY in 2QFY23, bolstering government revenue and corporate earnings. The fiscal deficit in Apr-Oct'22 was 45.6% of the FY23 target, having already exceeded budget targets in Apr-Oct'19&amp;'18.</li>
<li>With Brent crude prices falling below US$85/bbl, CPI inflation is likely to be below 6% YoY in Jan-Mar'23. We expect 7.3% real GDP growth in FY24 despite the OECD recession. </li>
</ul>


After 9.7%YoY growth in 1HFY23, we expect real GDP growth of 7.5% for the full FY23, led by investment spending, which is being crowded-in as the fiscal deficit stays contained. 
Nominal GDP grew 16.2%YoY in 2QFY23, bolstering government revenue and corporate earnings. The fiscal deficit in Apr-Oct'22 was 45.6% of the FY23 target, having already exceeded budget targets in Apr-Oct'19&amp;'18.
With Brent crude prices falling below US$85/bbl, CPI inflation is likely to be below 6% YoY in Jan-Mar'23. We expect 7.3% real GDP growth in FY24 despite the OECD recession. 


India: Investment-Led Growth Crowded-In as Government's Fiscal Deficit Is Contained

<ul>
<li>As forecast, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> in December to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a>.</li>
<li>We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 2.3x ADV (7.2x delivery volume) on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT)</a> while selling 5x ADV (10.5x delivery volume) on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD)</a>. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> merger should see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> prior to the June rebalance.</li>
</ul>


As forecast, Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) will be added to the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) in December to replace Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN).
We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 2.3x ADV (7.2x delivery volume) on Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT) while selling 5x ADV (10.5x delivery volume) on Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD). 
The HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) / HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) merger should see Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) added to the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) prior to the June rebalance.


SENSEX Dec 22 Index Rebalance: Tata Motors (TTMT) To Replace Dr Reddy (DRRD)

<ul>
<li>The Administrator of the Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India (SUUTI) is offering 46.53m shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axis-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1" rel="noopener">Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)</a> at a floor price of INR 830.63/share.</li>
<li>This will take SUUTI's stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axis-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1" rel="noopener">Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)</a> to zero and remove an overhang on the stock.</li>
<li>Coming in close to Bain's partial stake sale last week, the stock could trade heavy. But <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axis-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1" rel="noopener">Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)</a> still trades cheaper than peers.</li>
</ul>


The Administrator of the Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India (SUUTI) is offering 46.53m shares of Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) at a floor price of INR 830.63/share.
This will take SUUTI's stake in Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) to zero and remove an overhang on the stock.
Coming in close to Bain's partial stake sale last week, the stock could trade heavy. But Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) still trades cheaper than peers.


Axis Bank (AXSB IN): Last of the SUUTI Selldown Removes Overhang

<ul>
<li>The National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) has ordered a meeting of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank</a> shareholders on 25 November to consider and approve the proposed Scheme of Amalgamation.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pidilite-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20573:1" rel="noopener">Pidilite Industries (PIDI IN)</a> is a high probability ad hoc inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-power-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15618:1" rel="noopener">Tata Power (TPWR IN)</a> a lower probability inclusion candidate.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> could be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">SENSEX INDEX</a> in December replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) has ordered a meeting of HDFC Limited and HDFC Bank shareholders on 25 November to consider and approve the proposed Scheme of Amalgamation.

Pidilite Industries (PIDI IN) is a high probability ad hoc inclusion to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) with Tata Power (TPWR IN) a lower probability inclusion candidate.

Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) and Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) could be added to the SENSEX INDEX in December replacing HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) and Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN).


HDFC/HDFCB Merger in the Home Stretch: Potential Changes to NIFTY50, NIFTY100 & SENSEX Indices

India

The S&P BSE Sensex Index is a cap-weighted index. The index members have been selected on the basis of liquidity, depth, and floating-stock-adjustment depth and industry representation. Sensex has a base date and value of 100 in 1978-1979. The Index shifted to free-float methodology since 09/01/03. Please see {SNSXOLD Index <GO>} for mid-month options.

S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

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S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Adani Enterprises Could Replace Wipro

Adani Enterprises could replace Wipro in the Sensex in June. Adani Enterprises could move lower in the short-term due to the public offering. Wipro...

Brian Freitas

India: Investment-Led Growth Crowded-In as Government's Fiscal Deficit Is Contained

With the fiscal deficit well-contained, GFCF is being crowded-in -- now 21% higher than the pre-Covid quarter 3 years ago. Lower Brent will allow...

Prasenjit K. Basu

SENSEX Dec 22 Index Rebalance: Tata Motors (TTMT) To Replace Dr Reddy (DRRD)

Tata Motors will replace Dr Reddy in the Sensex at the Dec rebal. Passives will need to buy 7.2x delivery vol on TTMT; sell 10.5x on DRRD. Adani...

Brian Freitas

Axis Bank (AXSB IN): Last of the SUUTI Selldown Removes Overhang

SUUTI's sale of 46.5m shares (1.55% of shares out) could lead to a short-term price drop but removes a longer-term overhang. Axis Bank trades...

Brian Freitas

HDFC/HDFCB Merger in the Home Stretch: Potential Changes to NIFTY50, NIFTY100 & SENSEX Indices

Approval of the scheme of amalgamation by HDFC & HDFCB shareholders on 25 Nov will trigger changes to the NIFTY and NIFTYJR in December. Sensex...

Brian Freitas

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