Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Goods export growth of 4.6%YoY was outpaced by import growth of 7.8%YoY (Apr-Jun'24), widening the merchandise deficit by 13.5%YoY. This was partly offset by the Apr-May24 services surplus widening 16.5%YoY. </li>
<li>In Q4FY24 (Jan-Mar'24), India had a current account surplus (0.6% of GDP) as the merchandise deficit of USD50.3bn was offset by a USD42.7bn services surplus and USD13.9bn incomes surplus.</li>
<li>With oil prices remaining subdued (USD75-90/bbl), goods exports and the services surplus expanding, India is likely to report a current account surplus of 0.5% of GDP in FY25. </li>
</ul>


Goods export growth of 4.6%YoY was outpaced by import growth of 7.8%YoY (Apr-Jun'24), widening the merchandise deficit by 13.5%YoY. This was partly offset by the Apr-May24 services surplus widening 16.5%YoY. 
In Q4FY24 (Jan-Mar'24), India had a current account surplus (0.6% of GDP) as the merchandise deficit of USD50.3bn was offset by a USD42.7bn services surplus and USD13.9bn incomes surplus.
With oil prices remaining subdued (USD75-90/bbl), goods exports and the services surplus expanding, India is likely to report a current account surplus of 0.5% of GDP in FY25. 


India: External Sector in Robust Health with Current Account Surplus Likely in FY25

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Despite more than doubling in the past 4 years, the BSE-Sensex is fairly valued (trailing P/E of 24.04x) relative to its 10-year mean (23.93x)-- helped by sustained EPS growth. </li>
<li>The trailing P/E is above the 20-year (21.34x) and 30-year mean (20.4x), but those reflect weaker growth prospects in earlier decades. 10yr mean better reflects new normal 8% RGDP growth.  </li>
<li>Net FPI inflows reached a record USD10.14bn in Dec'23, when the market was similarly valued. FPI flows into equity were minimal in H1CY24, but likely to rebound. Stay moderately Overweight. </li>
</ul>


Despite more than doubling in the past 4 years, the BSE-Sensex is fairly valued (trailing P/E of 24.04x) relative to its 10-year mean (23.93x)-- helped by sustained EPS growth. 
The trailing P/E is above the 20-year (21.34x) and 30-year mean (20.4x), but those reflect weaker growth prospects in earlier decades. 10yr mean better reflects new normal 8% RGDP growth.  
Net FPI inflows reached a record USD10.14bn in Dec'23, when the market was similarly valued. FPI flows into equity were minimal in H1CY24, but likely to rebound. Stay moderately Overweight. 


India: Growth Ensures that the Market Is Not Too Expensive Despite Big 4yr Runup

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>Forensic Forsight will be a bi-monthly report covering Indian companies having corporate governance issues guiding investors on strengthening their ESG investment framework</li>
<li>The issue covers SEBI warning against ICICI Bank for manipulation in delisting process of its key subsidiary.</li>
<li>The report also covers how a EV company disguises shareholders while an Indian renewable energy company is under scrutiny owing to Independent Director Resignation</li>
</ul>


Forensic Forsight will be a bi-monthly report covering Indian companies having corporate governance issues guiding investors on strengthening their ESG investment framework
The issue covers SEBI warning against ICICI Bank for manipulation in delisting process of its key subsidiary.
The report also covers how a EV company disguises shareholders while an Indian renewable energy company is under scrutiny owing to Independent Director Resignation


#1 Forensic Foresight: SEBI Warns ICICI Bank, Suzlon Director Resign, Wardwizard Disguise

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)</a> Surpasses Hong Kong to Become Fourth-Highest Equity Market Globally.</li>
<li>Vodafone to Sell Entire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indus-towers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8922:1" rel="noopener">Indus Towers (INDUSTOW IN)</a> Stake Worth $2.3 Billion via Block Deals</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/state-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:160:1" rel="noopener">State Bank Of India (SBIN IN)</a> Completes Rs 830 Crore Bond Issuance</li>
</ul>



S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY) Surpasses Hong Kong to Become Fourth-Highest Equity Market Globally.
Vodafone to Sell Entire Indus Towers (INDUSTOW IN) Stake Worth $2.3 Billion via Block Deals

State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) Completes Rs 830 Crore Bond Issuance


#15 India Insight: Sensex Crossed Hongkong Market, Vodafone to Sell Indus Stake, Adani Ent

<ul>
<li>Overall, the surge in CAPEX in India reflects a positive outlook for the economy, with investments in infrastructure and emerging sectors driving growth and innovation.  come.</li>
<li>The strong balance sheet of companies and healthy tax collections further support this trend, indicating a sustainable path towards economic development. </li>
<li>As CAPEX continues to rise and investments in key sectors increase, India is poised for continued growth and prosperity in the years to</li>
</ul>


Overall, the surge in CAPEX in India reflects a positive outlook for the economy, with investments in infrastructure and emerging sectors driving growth and innovation.  come.
The strong balance sheet of companies and healthy tax collections further support this trend, indicating a sustainable path towards economic development. 
As CAPEX continues to rise and investments in key sectors increase, India is poised for continued growth and prosperity in the years to


Thematic Report: Capex Fueling Economic Growth and Development

India

The S&P BSE Sensex Index is a cap-weighted index. The index members have been selected on the basis of liquidity, depth, and floating-stock-adjustment depth and industry representation. Sensex has a base date and value of 100 in 1978-1979. The Index shifted to free-float methodology since 09/01/03. Please see {SNSXOLD Index <GO>} for mid-month options.

S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
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S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

India: External Sector in Robust Health with Current Account Surplus Likely in FY25

India's current account swung to surplus in Q4FY24, with merchandise deficit offset by services & incomes surpluses, likely to continue in FY25...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Growth Ensures that the Market Is Not Too Expensive Despite Big 4yr Runup

Sensex trailing P/E of 24.04x is near 10yr mean of 23.93x, reflecting sustained EPS growth. Net FPI inflows hit a record USD10bn in Dec'23, when...

Prasenjit K. Basu

#1 Forensic Foresight: SEBI Warns ICICI Bank, Suzlon Director Resign, Wardwizard Disguise

India Forensic Foresight report will guide investors on ESG framework, highlighting corporate governance issues in Indian companies like ICICI...

Nimish Maheshwari

#15 India Insight: Sensex Crossed Hongkong Market, Vodafone to Sell Indus Stake, Adani Ent

S&P BSE SENSEX Index surpasses Hong Kong to become fourth-highest equity market globally, Vodafone to sell entire Indus Towers stake worth $2.3...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Thematic Report: Capex Fueling Economic Growth and Development

India's increasing CAPEX signals a positive economic outlook, supported by strong balance sheets and healthy tax collections. Continued growth and...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India: External Sector in Robust Health with Current Account Surplus Likely in FY25

​India's current account swung to surplus in Q4FY24, with merchandise deficit offset by services & incomes surpluses, likely to continue in FY25...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Growth Ensures that the Market Is Not Too Expensive Despite Big 4yr Runup

​Sensex trailing P/E of 24.04x is near 10yr mean of 23.93x, reflecting sustained EPS growth. Net FPI inflows hit a record USD10bn in Dec'23, when...

Prasenjit K. Basu

#1 Forensic Foresight: SEBI Warns ICICI Bank, Suzlon Director Resign, Wardwizard Disguise

​India Forensic Foresight report will guide investors on ESG framework, highlighting corporate governance issues in Indian companies like ICICI...

Nimish Maheshwari

#15 India Insight: Sensex Crossed Hongkong Market, Vodafone to Sell Indus Stake, Adani Ent

​S&P BSE SENSEX Index surpasses Hong Kong to become fourth-highest equity market globally, Vodafone to sell entire Indus Towers stake worth $2.3...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Thematic Report: Capex Fueling Economic Growth and Development

​India's increasing CAPEX signals a positive economic outlook, supported by strong balance sheets and healthy tax collections. Continued growth and...

Sudarshan Bhandari

India's current account swung to surplus in Q4FY24, with merchandise deficit offset by services & incomes surpluses, likely to continue in FY25...

Sensex trailing P/E of 24.04x is near 10yr mean of 23.93x, reflecting sustained EPS growth. Net FPI inflows hit a record USD10bn in Dec'23, when...

India Forensic Foresight report will guide investors on ESG framework, highlighting corporate governance issues in Indian companies like ICICI...

S&P BSE SENSEX Index surpasses Hong Kong to become fourth-highest equity market globally, Vodafone to sell entire Indus Towers stake worth $2.3...

India's increasing CAPEX signals a positive economic outlook, supported by strong balance sheets and healthy tax collections. Continued growth and...