Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 Index</a> has reached a specific resistance level that often precedes a short-term pullback, when this pattern is encountered.</li>
<li>The pullback may happen next week, but this week is also a potential candidate since the 2nd week up is usually pretty weak when this pattern is encountered.</li>
<li>Hold your LONG positions and cover them to hedge. Going SHORT is probably best at the end of the week, on Friday, if the week is closing up.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX 200 Index has reached a specific resistance level that often precedes a short-term pullback, when this pattern is encountered.
The pullback may happen next week, but this week is also a potential candidate since the 2nd week up is usually pretty weak when this pattern is encountered.
Hold your LONG positions and cover them to hedge. Going SHORT is probably best at the end of the week, on Friday, if the week is closing up.


EQD | S&P/ASX200 Pullback In Sight (This Week or the Next)

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">ASX 200 INDEX</a> closed last week down, and this week is barely up, it has been flat for 3 weeks and its direction is unclear.</li>
<li>The index may be preparing for a pullback, even though our models at the moment are not flashing yet the "go SHORT" signal. Covering LONG holdings may be wise.</li>
<li>Wait for prices &gt; 7670 or the end of this week, if the index closes the week up, to increase the probability of success for a SHORT Trade.</li>
</ul>


The ASX 200 INDEX closed last week down, and this week is barely up, it has been flat for 3 weeks and its direction is unclear.
The index may be preparing for a pullback, even though our models at the moment are not flashing yet the "go SHORT" signal. Covering LONG holdings may be wise.
Wait for prices &gt; 7670 or the end of this week, if the index closes the week up, to increase the probability of success for a SHORT Trade.


EQD | S&P/ASX200 Stalled, SHORT Opportunity

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> started to go up again after just 1 week down, now starting the 2nd week up, we want to evaluate how far it can go. </li>
<li>There are a number of Q2 resistance levels just above the 7600 price area for the next 2 weeks, so if the index goes up there it will be overbought.</li>
<li>This pattern is bullish, you need to wait for at least 3 or 4 weeks up in a row before going SHORT, unless you love to take risks...</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX started to go up again after just 1 week down, now starting the 2nd week up, we want to evaluate how far it can go. 
There are a number of Q2 resistance levels just above the 7600 price area for the next 2 weeks, so if the index goes up there it will be overbought.
This pattern is bullish, you need to wait for at least 3 or 4 weeks up in a row before going SHORT, unless you love to take risks...


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>With the review period nearly complete, there could be one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index and one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in December.</li>
<li>Both deletes are also deletions from a global index next week and there could be short-term buying/covering opportunities on a drop in the stock price.</li>
<li>There has been a buildup of cumulative excess volume in all stocks over the last few months. There has been no increase in positioning in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/car-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:701:1" rel="noopener">CAR Group (CAR AU)</a> recently.</li>
</ul>


With the review period nearly complete, there could be one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index and one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December.
Both deletes are also deletions from a global index next week and there could be short-term buying/covering opportunities on a drop in the stock price.
There has been a buildup of cumulative excess volume in all stocks over the last few months. There has been no increase in positioning in CAR Group (CAR AU) recently.


S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 2024): Dexus and Spark NZ with Double Deletions

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> closed last week down at 7421.20 (CC=-1). The index was rallying in the previous weeks, but then pulled back before reaching the previous all time highs.</li>
<li>The next strong support for a LONG trade is 7288 (Q3 support), but there is a risk of a slide to lower levels, so hedge your LONG trades.</li>
<li>This looks like a temporary correction (buy-the-dip opportunity to add LONG positions, or to re-enter LONG at better prices).</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX closed last week down at 7421.20 (CC=-1). The index was rallying in the previous weeks, but then pulled back before reaching the previous all time highs.
The next strong support for a LONG trade is 7288 (Q3 support), but there is a risk of a slide to lower levels, so hedge your LONG trades.
This looks like a temporary correction (buy-the-dip opportunity to add LONG positions, or to re-enter LONG at better prices).


EQD | S&P/ASX200 WEEKLY LONG Supports Reset, Ready for Bounce?

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 measures the performance of the 200 largest index-eligible stocks listed on the ASX by float-adjusted market capitalization. Representative liquid and tradable, it is widely considered Australia's preeminent benchmark index. The index is float-adjusted. The index was launched in April 2000.

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)

EQD | S&P/ASX200 Pullback In Sight (This Week or the Next)

The ASX 200 Index is approaching pattern-specific resistance levels, expect a short-term pullback soon. Hold LONG positions, consider hedging, and...

Nico Rosti

EQD | S&P/ASX200 Stalled, SHORT Opportunity

ASX 200 Index has been flat for 3 weeks, direction unclear. Potential pullback ahead, consider covering LONG holdings. Watch for prices > 7670 or...

Nico Rosti

EQD | ASX200 Rally: How Much Higher?

The ASX 200 INDEX is on an upward trend, but may face resistance near 7600. Waiting for 2-3 more weeks before going SHORT is probably a good idea...

Nico Rosti

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 2024): Dexus and Spark NZ with Double Deletions

CAR Group could replace Dexus in the ASX50, and Clarity Pharma could replace Spark NZ in the ASX200. Dexus and Spark NZ are also deletes from a...

Brian Freitas

EQD | S&P/ASX200 WEEKLY LONG Supports Reset, Ready for Bounce?

The ASX 200 INDEX closed down last week, but this temporary correction may be a buy-the-dip opportunity. We favor the sub-7300 area, if reached,...

Nico Rosti

EQD | S&P/ASX200 Pullback In Sight (This Week or the Next)

​The ASX 200 Index is approaching pattern-specific resistance levels, expect a short-term pullback soon. Hold LONG positions, consider hedging, and...

Nico Rosti

EQD | S&P/ASX200 Stalled, SHORT Opportunity

​ASX 200 Index has been flat for 3 weeks, direction unclear. Potential pullback ahead, consider covering LONG holdings. Watch for prices > 7670 or...

Nico Rosti

EQD | ASX200 Rally: How Much Higher?

​The ASX 200 INDEX is on an upward trend, but may face resistance near 7600. Waiting for 2-3 more weeks before going SHORT is probably a good idea...

Nico Rosti

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 2024): Dexus and Spark NZ with Double Deletions

CAR Group could replace Dexus in the ASX50, and Clarity Pharma could replace Spark NZ in the ASX200. Dexus and Spark NZ are also deletes from a...

Brian Freitas

EQD | S&P/ASX200 WEEKLY LONG Supports Reset, Ready for Bounce?

​The ASX 200 INDEX closed down last week, but this temporary correction may be a buy-the-dip opportunity. We favor the sub-7300 area, if reached,...

Nico Rosti

The ASX 200 Index is approaching pattern-specific resistance levels, expect a short-term pullback soon. Hold LONG positions, consider hedging, and...

ASX 200 Index has been flat for 3 weeks, direction unclear. Potential pullback ahead, consider covering LONG holdings. Watch for prices > 7670 or...

The ASX 200 INDEX is on an upward trend, but may face resistance near 7600. Waiting for 2-3 more weeks before going SHORT is probably a good idea...

The ASX 200 INDEX closed down last week, but this temporary correction may be a buy-the-dip opportunity. We favor the sub-7300 area, if reached,...