Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> last week closed down (CC=-1, breached the Q2 support at 6918, entering OVERSOLD territory). </li>
<li>The index has been directionless since early August 2021, it is going down but it's OVERSOLD MONTHLY (3 months down), so it could bounce in November.</li>
<li>The current MRM pattern is quite bullish from a CC perspective: here we analyze WEEKLY supports to see how far down the index can go, it could bounce soon.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX last week closed down (CC=-1, breached the Q2 support at 6918, entering OVERSOLD territory). 
The index has been directionless since early August 2021, it is going down but it's OVERSOLD MONTHLY (3 months down), so it could bounce in November.
The current MRM pattern is quite bullish from a CC perspective: here we analyze WEEKLY supports to see how far down the index can go, it could bounce soon.


EQD | S&P/ASX200 Directionless or Downtrending?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36929:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> replaced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> last week.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> stops trading this week and should be replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> CDIs in the ASX indices.</li>
<li>Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.</li>
</ul>



Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)/ Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) replaced United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) last week.

Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) stops trading this week and should be replaced by Newmont Mining (NEM US) CDIs in the ASX indices.
Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources</a>' Suspension from Quotation "pending the release of an announcement regarding the finalisation of funding arrangements associated with the Kathleen Valley Project" could last till the open 20 October.</li>
<li>Short interest continued to increase prior to the trading halt and passive selling will be higher following Hancock increasing its stake to 19.9%.</li>
<li>The immediate funding for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a> could come from debt sources with an equity raise coming later this year or early next year.</li>
</ul>



Liontown Resources' Suspension from Quotation "pending the release of an announcement regarding the finalisation of funding arrangements associated with the Kathleen Valley Project" could last till the open 20 October.
Short interest continued to increase prior to the trading halt and passive selling will be higher following Hancock increasing its stake to 19.9%.
The immediate funding for Liontown Resources (LTR AU) could come from debt sources with an equity raise coming later this year or early next year.


Liontown Resources (LTR AU): Trading Halt Extended; Passive Selling Update

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> shares stop trading after the close on 26 October and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> CDIs will start trading from the open on 27 October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> CDIs should replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> in the S&amp;P/ASX indices from 27 October. But there could be index changes at the subsequent rebalances.</li>
<li>Based on the case of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/block-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35684:1" rel="noopener">Block (SQ2 AU)</a>, we could see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> CDIs deleted from the ASX20 Index in December and from the ASX50 Index in March/June.</li>
</ul>



Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) shares stop trading after the close on 26 October and Newmont Mining (NEM US) CDIs will start trading from the open on 27 October.

Newmont Mining (NEM US) CDIs should replace Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX indices from 27 October. But there could be index changes at the subsequent rebalances.
Based on the case of Block (SQ2 AU), we could see Newmont Mining (NEM US) CDIs deleted from the ASX20 Index in December and from the ASX50 Index in March/June.


Newcrest/Newmont & Potential S&P/ASX Changes

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a> is trading near A$3/share, the level of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albemarle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7678:1" rel="noopener">Albemarle Corp (ALB US)</a>'s revised offer and where Hancock Prospecting has been buying recently. </li>
<li>With Hancock Prospecting accumulating a stake of nearly 17% over the last month, there will be a float reduction for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a> in the next few months.</li>
<li>Short interest has been increasing and the passive selling could provide an exit for the shorts. But Hancock Prospecting could also use the opportunity to buy more <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources</a> stock.</li>
</ul>



Liontown Resources (LTR AU) is trading near A$3/share, the level of Albemarle Corp (ALB US)'s revised offer and where Hancock Prospecting has been buying recently. 
With Hancock Prospecting accumulating a stake of nearly 17% over the last month, there will be a float reduction for Liontown Resources (LTR AU) in the next few months.
Short interest has been increasing and the passive selling could provide an exit for the shorts. But Hancock Prospecting could also use the opportunity to buy more Liontown Resources stock.


Liontown Resources (LTR AU): Passive Selling on Lower Float

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 measures the performance of the 200 largest index-eligible stocks listed on the ASX by float-adjusted market capitalization. Representative liquid and tradable, it is widely considered Australia's preeminent benchmark index. The index is float-adjusted. The index was launched in April 2000.

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)

EQD | S&P/ASX200 Directionless or Downtrending?

The SP/ASX 200 INDEX closed down last week, into WEEKLY OVERSOLD territory. It may touch the lower range support, but it's also MONTHLY OVERSOLD...

Nico Rosti

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Liontown Resources (LTR AU): Trading Halt Extended; Passive Selling Update

Trading halt extended as funding options are finalised. Short interest is 16% of float and there will be passive selling in Nov/Dec. Equity raise...

Brian Freitas

Newcrest/Newmont & Potential S&P/ASX Changes

Newmont CDIs should replace Newcrest in the ASX indices. Using Block as a precedent, a decrease in the number of CDIs held in Oz could lead to...

Brian Freitas

Liontown Resources (LTR AU): Passive Selling on Lower Float

Albemarle has withdrawn its indicative proposal for Liontown due to 'growing complexities with completing the transaction'. No deal + upcoming...

Brian Freitas

EQD | S&P/ASX200 Directionless or Downtrending?

​The SP/ASX 200 INDEX closed down last week, into WEEKLY OVERSOLD territory. It may touch the lower range support, but it's also MONTHLY OVERSOLD...

Nico Rosti

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Liontown Resources (LTR AU): Trading Halt Extended; Passive Selling Update

Trading halt extended as funding options are finalised. Short interest is 16% of float and there will be passive selling in Nov/Dec. Equity raise...

Brian Freitas

Newcrest/Newmont & Potential S&P/ASX Changes

Newmont CDIs should replace Newcrest in the ASX indices. Using Block as a precedent, a decrease in the number of CDIs held in Oz could lead to...

Brian Freitas

Liontown Resources (LTR AU): Passive Selling on Lower Float

Albemarle has withdrawn its indicative proposal for Liontown due to 'growing complexities with completing the transaction'. No deal + upcoming...

Brian Freitas

The SP/ASX 200 INDEX closed down last week, into WEEKLY OVERSOLD territory. It may touch the lower range support, but it's also MONTHLY OVERSOLD...