Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A comprehensive empirical study by Goetzmann (2016) covering more than 3000 stock market-years in 21 stock markets between 1900 and 2014 reveals that bubbles are incredibly scarce.</li>
<li>The likelihood of the stock market declining by 50% (crash) within a year after a rise of 100% or more (boom) in the previous year is only just 4%.</li>
<li>Interestingly, stock prices rose by another 100% after a rise of 100% or more (boom) in over 8% of the cases. These findings will not resonate well with perpetual bears.</li>
</ul>


A comprehensive empirical study by Goetzmann (2016) covering more than 3000 stock market-years in 21 stock markets between 1900 and 2014 reveals that bubbles are incredibly scarce.
The likelihood of the stock market declining by 50% (crash) within a year after a rise of 100% or more (boom) in the previous year is only just 4%.
Interestingly, stock prices rose by another 100% after a rise of 100% or more (boom) in over 8% of the cases. These findings will not resonate well with perpetual bears.


Before You Call Artificial Intelligence a Bubble, Understand that Bubbles Are Rare!

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>SPX kissed our 4,250 overshoot zone to unwind our 4,120 long. A case of selling the fact as Euphoria fades and reality sets in.</li>
<li>RTY remains our top US short and is underperforming the SPX. 1,710 near target with a June bias to crack this pivotal support.</li>
<li>US 10yr yield met our rally and sell target at 3.80%. Macro take was to sell yield at 3.80% to test pocket support. USD will lag.</li>
</ul>


SPX kissed our 4,250 overshoot zone to unwind our 4,120 long. A case of selling the fact as Euphoria fades and reality sets in.
RTY remains our top US short and is underperforming the SPX. 1,710 near target with a June bias to crack this pivotal support.
US 10yr yield met our rally and sell target at 3.80%. Macro take was to sell yield at 3.80% to test pocket support. USD will lag.


<ul>
<li>The MOVE/VIX ratio has spiked again, surging to above 8, close to a level two standard deviations above average.</li>
<li>Equities have underperformed Treasuries most of the time when the MOVE/VIX ratio exceeds 7.0.</li>
<li>Should the VIX Index rise above 20 from here, the outlook for equities becomes even more unfavorable relative to Treasuries.</li>
</ul>


The MOVE/VIX ratio has spiked again, surging to above 8, close to a level two standard deviations above average.
Equities have underperformed Treasuries most of the time when the MOVE/VIX ratio exceeds 7.0.
Should the VIX Index rise above 20 from here, the outlook for equities becomes even more unfavorable relative to Treasuries.


Cross-Asset Volatility: Flashing Red for Equities

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Tech Leads the Way

<ul>
<li>NVIDIA's recent earnings report confirms the reality and arrival of the AI boom, with projected sales far exceeding estimates.</li>
<li>Commodity prices have dropped, suggesting a high likelihood of a recession in the US.</li>
<li>Market breadth indicates weakness, with AI hype overshadowing other indicators. Big Tech companies' market capitalization has surged, while other stocks have seen declines, raising valuation concerns.</li>
</ul>


NVIDIA's recent earnings report confirms the reality and arrival of the AI boom, with projected sales far exceeding estimates.
Commodity prices have dropped, suggesting a high likelihood of a recession in the US.
Market breadth indicates weakness, with AI hype overshadowing other indicators. Big Tech companies' market capitalization has surged, while other stocks have seen declines, raising valuation concerns.


Weekly Market Monitor - Week 21 - Embracing the AI Boom

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Before You Call Artificial Intelligence a Bubble, Understand that Bubbles Are Rare!

Exercise caution when calling something a market bubble. Bubbles are less frequent than commonly believed, and booms often persist longer than...

Jeroen Blokland

SPX Met Blow off Zone

SPX kissed our 4,250 overshoot zone to unwind our 4,120 long. A case of selling the fact as Euphoria fades and reality sets in. RTY is our top US...

Thomas Schroeder

Cross-Asset Volatility: Flashing Red for Equities

The MOVE/VIX ratio has surged again, reflecting heightened volatility in the Treasury market compared to equities. This volatility discrepancy is...

Jeroen Blokland

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Tech Leads the Way

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

Weekly Market Monitor - Week 21 - Embracing the AI Boom

The AI Boom is real but also poses two big challenges for investors. Also real is the likelihood of another credit event now that bond yields are...

Jeroen Blokland