bullish
Before You Call Artificial Intelligence a Bubble, Understand that Bubbles Are Rare!
574 Views01 Jun 2023 14:52
SUMMARY
- A comprehensive empirical study by Goetzmann (2016) covering more than 3000 stock market-years in 21 stock markets between 1900 and 2014 reveals that bubbles are incredibly scarce.
- The likelihood of the stock market declining by 50% (crash) within a year after a rise of 100% or more (boom) in the previous year is only just 4%.
- Interestingly, stock prices rose by another 100% after a rise of 100% or more (boom) in over 8% of the cases. These findings will not resonate well with perpetual bears.
Begin exploring Smartkarma's AI-augmented investing intelligence platform with a complimentary Preview Pass to:
- Unlock research summaries
- Follow top, independent analysts
- Receive personalised alerts
- Access Analytics, Events and more
Join 55,000+ investors, including top global asset managers overseeing $13+ trillion.
Upgrade later to our paid plans for full-access.
or
Already have an account? Sign In Now
Discussions
(Paid Plans Only)
x