Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Our estimate of the fair value 10-year US Treasury yield currently stands at 4.63%.</li>
<li>With a difference of 38 basis points, the gap between the fair value estimate and the actual yield is historically large.</li>
<li>Hence, we adjust our portfolio and remove the overweight in Treasuries.</li>
</ul>


Our estimate of the fair value 10-year US Treasury yield currently stands at 4.63%.
With a difference of 38 basis points, the gap between the fair value estimate and the actual yield is historically large.
Hence, we adjust our portfolio and remove the overweight in Treasuries.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Discussed risk/reward favored buyers in late-October as supports were being tested (October 24 and 31), then we outlined on 11/7/23 our belief that a significant year-end rally was likely underway.</li>
<li>New market-generated information has continued to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market.  We continue to expect a rally into year-end and beyond</li>
<li>Gold and silver are bullishly inflecting, and we are buying GLD, SLV, and the miners (GDX, GDXJ)</li>
</ul>


Discussed risk/reward favored buyers in late-October as supports were being tested (October 24 and 31), then we outlined on 11/7/23 our belief that a significant year-end rally was likely underway.
New market-generated information has continued to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market.  We continue to expect a rally into year-end and beyond
Gold and silver are bullishly inflecting, and we are buying GLD, SLV, and the miners (GDX, GDXJ)


Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Buying Gold, Silver, Miners $GDX $GDXJ $GLD $SLV

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Geo-Politics are tense. Monetary policies are in contraction. Rates are on hawkish pause. Inflation is far from tamed. Financial conditions remain tight. VIX should be anything but sanguine.</li>
<li>Any misjudgment across politicians, central bankers or businesses could send equities tanking or soaring. Yet the VIX is sending a calming signal.</li>
<li>VIX isn’t broken. It has been diluted by rise of Zero DTE (0DTE) options which have shifted risk pricing windows away from VIX target expiry range.</li>
</ul>


Geo-Politics are tense. Monetary policies are in contraction. Rates are on hawkish pause. Inflation is far from tamed. Financial conditions remain tight. VIX should be anything but sanguine.
Any misjudgment across politicians, central bankers or businesses could send equities tanking or soaring. Yet the VIX is sending a calming signal.
VIX isn’t broken. It has been diluted by rise of Zero DTE (0DTE) options which have shifted risk pricing windows away from VIX target expiry range.


VIX Isn’t Broken. It Is Diluted by 0DTE Options That Have Shifted Target Risk Windows.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Even though the endless outperformance of the Magnificent 7 means the Equal Weighted S&amp;P 500 Index is underperforming massively, this is not a reason to sell stocks.</li>
<li>One to six months after the historically largest outperformances of the S&amp;P 500 Index, more impressive returns tend to follow.</li>
<li>It's only when the S&amp;P 500 Index has lagged the Equal Weighted Index that shorting stocks would have been lucrative.</li>
</ul>


Even though the endless outperformance of the Magnificent 7 means the Equal Weighted S&amp;P 500 Index is underperforming massively, this is not a reason to sell stocks.
One to six months after the historically largest outperformances of the S&amp;P 500 Index, more impressive returns tend to follow.
It's only when the S&amp;P 500 Index has lagged the Equal Weighted Index that shorting stocks would have been lucrative.


The Magnificent 7 Are No Reason to Exit Stocks!

<ul>
<li>Volatility Has dropped off a cliff, signaling that investors are unable to see any risk currently. That feels at least a bit complacent. </li>
<li>We take a deep dive to determine which asset class will likely benefit most from the first Fed rate cut and the start of the easing cycle. Spoiler alert! It’s not Equities.</li>
<li>OPEC’s resilience to continue production cuts is being tested. At the same time, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved even further into FRENZY territory.</li>
</ul>


Volatility Has dropped off a cliff, signaling that investors are unable to see any risk currently. That feels at least a bit complacent. 
We take a deep dive to determine which asset class will likely benefit most from the first Fed rate cut and the start of the easing cycle. Spoiler alert! It’s not Equities.
OPEC’s resilience to continue production cuts is being tested. At the same time, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved even further into FRENZY territory.


The Weekly Market Monitor – VIX Hits Multi-Year Low, Investors Can’t See Any Risks!

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Bond Investors Are Overdoing It!

It was fun while it lasted. The gap between our fair value 10-year US Treasury yield and the actual yield has grown historically large. Hence, we...

Jeroen Blokland

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Buying Gold, Silver, Miners $GDX $GDXJ $GLD $SLV

New market-generated information continues to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market. We still expect...

Vermilion Research

VIX Isn’t Broken. It Is Diluted by 0DTE Options That Have Shifted Target Risk Windows.

Geo-politics are tense. Monetary policies are in contraction. Rates are on a hawkish pause. Inflation is far from gone. Financial conditions remain...

Mint Finance

The Magnificent 7 Are No Reason to Exit Stocks!

While there are many reasons to be cautious about Equities, the outperformance of the S&P 500 Index over the Equal Weighted Index is not one of them!

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – VIX Hits Multi-Year Low, Investors Can’t See Any Risks!

The VIX collapsed to the lowest since COVID, which makes investors look complacent, especially with our Fear & Frenzy Sentiment Index still in Frenzy.

Jeroen Blokland