Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was up 4.9% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 4.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 4.4%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 5.9%).</li><li>Energy Technology (13.7% of the index) was up 6.0%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.4% of the index) was up 6.5%, ClimateTech Mining was up 3.5%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (19.7% of index) was up 1.6%.</li><li style="text-align: left;">Top 10 Performers:<span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);"> GP, FTCI, GCEH, GEVO, SPI, SUNW, </span><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">INVZ, SMR, GRB, GTEC</span></li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 4.9% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 4.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 4.4%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 5.9%).Energy Technology (13.7% of the index) was up 6.0%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.4% of the index) was up 6.5%, ClimateTech Mining was up 3.5%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (19.7% of index) was up 1.6%.Top 10 Performers: GP, FTCI, GCEH, GEVO, SPI, SUNW, INVZ, SMR, GRB, GTEC

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on LSB Industries, Inc.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Jul'24 was the weakest month for NFPs, and Jun-Aug'24 the weakest 3-month period, since Dec'20. Sahm Rule predicts recession: unemployment rate (averaging 4.2% Jun-Aug'24) is 0.57pp above 12m low (Nov'23-Jan'24).</li>
<li>ISM manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for 11 of past 12 months, with new orders slumping anew in the past 5 months -- suggesting a sharp cyclical downturn ahead.</li>
<li>Core PCE inflation is 2.6%YoY (and just below 2%MoM annualized) in May-Jul'24. That's enough to ensure a 25bp cut next week. Recession risk necessitates 50bp cut, but it won't happen. </li>
</ul>


Jul'24 was the weakest month for NFPs, and Jun-Aug'24 the weakest 3-month period, since Dec'20. Sahm Rule predicts recession: unemployment rate (averaging 4.2% Jun-Aug'24) is 0.57pp above 12m low (Nov'23-Jan'24).
ISM manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for 11 of past 12 months, with new orders slumping anew in the past 5 months -- suggesting a sharp cyclical downturn ahead.
Core PCE inflation is 2.6%YoY (and just below 2%MoM annualized) in May-Jul'24. That's enough to ensure a 25bp cut next week. Recession risk necessitates 50bp cut, but it won't happen. 


US: Recession Risk up Sharply as NFP and ISM Manufacturing Signal Downturn Ahead

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> and weight changes as a result of the market consultation proposals being adopted will result in a round-trip trade of US$31.5bn.</li>
<li>The largest one-way turnover is expected in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/consumer-staples-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27536:1" rel="noopener">Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/materials-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27541:1" rel="noopener">Materials Select Sector SPDR</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/communication-services-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27534:1" rel="noopener">Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund</a>.</li>
<li>The inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/palantir-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27728:1" rel="noopener">Palantir Technologies (PLTR US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies (DELL US)</a> will add to the buying from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> trackers.</li>
</ul>


Constituent changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX and weight changes as a result of the market consultation proposals being adopted will result in a round-trip trade of US$31.5bn.
The largest one-way turnover is expected in the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund, Technology Select Sector SPDR, Materials Select Sector SPDR and Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund.
The inflows to Apple (AAPL US), Palantir Technologies (PLTR US) and Dell Technologies (DELL US) will add to the buying from the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) trackers.


Select Sector Indices: Inflows to Apple, Palantir, Dell Will Add to SPX Buying

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The HSI has declined 3% MTD, but based on history, there is more downside risk. Over the last 10 years, the Index has only returned positively in two September.</li>
<li>October is also not good, and the Index declined an average of 1.9% in the month since 2019. However, November and December are normally the best-performing ones. </li>
<li>Prudent investors should stay conservative until October. By the end of next month, there are opportunities to increase position to take hold of the potential year-end rally. </li>
</ul>


The HSI has declined 3% MTD, but based on history, there is more downside risk. Over the last 10 years, the Index has only returned positively in two September.
October is also not good, and the Index declined an average of 1.9% in the month since 2019. However, November and December are normally the best-performing ones. 
Prudent investors should stay conservative until October. By the end of next month, there are opportunities to increase position to take hold of the potential year-end rally. 


China & HK Strategy: Sell in September and Go Away, Really?

<ul>
<li>There are 3 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a>, 8 changes for the S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and 15 changes for the S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies (DELL US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/palantir-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27728:1" rel="noopener">Palantir Technologies (PLTR US)</a> were finally added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and there is huge size to trade in the stocks.</li>
<li>There will also be big buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> following a float increase driven by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berkshire-hathaway-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1044:1" rel="noopener">Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl A (BRK/A US)</a> selling last quarter.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX, 8 changes for the S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and 15 changes for the S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index at the September rebalance.

Dell Technologies (DELL US) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR US) were finally added to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and there is huge size to trade in the stocks.
There will also be big buying in Apple (AAPL US) following a float increase driven by Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl A (BRK/A US) selling last quarter.


S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: Dell, Palantir Make It (Finally!); Apple Upweight

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on LSB Industries, Inc.

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 4.9% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 4.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 4.4%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 5.9%).

Water Tower Research

US: Recession Risk up Sharply as NFP and ISM Manufacturing Signal Downturn Ahead

Unemployment rate (avg 4.2% in Jun-Jul'24) is 0.57% higher than Nov'23-Jan'24, indicating recession ahead; so does deterioration in ISM mfg new...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Select Sector Indices: Inflows to Apple, Palantir, Dell Will Add to SPX Buying

Constituent changes to the SPX and the market consultation proposals being adopted result in a round-trip trade of US$31.5bn. Apple and...

Brian Freitas

China & HK Strategy: Sell in September and Go Away, Really?

It pays to be cautious for HSI investors in Sep and Oct, with opportunities for a year-end rally in Nov and Dec. Despite the 3% drop in MTD, it is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: Dell, Palantir Make It (Finally!); Apple Upweight

There are 3 changes for the SnP500, 8 for the SnP400 and 15 for the SnP600 Index. Dell and Palantir have finally been added. There is huge size to...

Brian Freitas

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on LSB Industries, Inc.

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 4.9% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 4.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 4.4%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 5.9%).

Water Tower Research

US: Recession Risk up Sharply as NFP and ISM Manufacturing Signal Downturn Ahead

Unemployment rate (avg 4.2% in Jun-Jul'24) is 0.57% higher than Nov'23-Jan'24, indicating recession ahead; so does deterioration in ISM mfg new...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Select Sector Indices: Inflows to Apple, Palantir, Dell Will Add to SPX Buying

Constituent changes to the SPX and the market consultation proposals being adopted result in a round-trip trade of US$31.5bn. Apple and...

Brian Freitas

China & HK Strategy: Sell in September and Go Away, Really?

​It pays to be cautious for HSI investors in Sep and Oct, with opportunities for a year-end rally in Nov and Dec. Despite the 3% drop in MTD, it is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: Dell, Palantir Make It (Finally!); Apple Upweight

There are 3 changes for the SnP500, 8 for the SnP400 and 15 for the SnP600 Index. Dell and Palantir have finally been added. There is huge size to...

Brian Freitas

It pays to be cautious for HSI investors in Sep and Oct, with opportunities for a year-end rally in Nov and Dec. Despite the 3% drop in MTD, it is...