Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be "in" for this pullback.</li>
<li>Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&amp;P 500 due to a multitude of reasons</li>
<li>We view the latest pullback to 100-day MA on SPX as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market. Pullbacks to the 100-day provided ideal entry points throughout the 2021 bull market</li>
</ul>


While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be "in" for this pullback.
Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&amp;P 500 due to a multitude of reasons
We view the latest pullback to 100-day MA on SPX as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market. Pullbacks to the 100-day provided ideal entry points throughout the 2021 bull market


Are the Lows "In" For This Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish; Key Supports Holding

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P500 has been falling for 3 weeks and 6 days, it is very oversold.</li>
<li>The current Market Reversal Matrix pattern suggests a high probability LONG trade for this coming week and the next.</li>
<li>The support price area where to enter LONG is the 4950-4900 but also higher prices between 5000 and 4950 could be a good entry point, although a bit riskier.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P500 has been falling for 3 weeks and 6 days, it is very oversold.
The current Market Reversal Matrix pattern suggests a high probability LONG trade for this coming week and the next.
The support price area where to enter LONG is the 4950-4900 but also higher prices between 5000 and 4950 could be a good entry point, although a bit riskier.


EQD | S&P500 Futures (ES) Deeply Oversold WEEKLY, Reversal (Probably) Imminent

<ul>
<li>We've discussed for months that we'll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.</li>
<li>Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.</li>
<li>Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports <em>that are currently being tested</em> would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.</li>
</ul>


We've discussed for months that we'll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.
Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.
Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports that are currently being tested would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.


The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Halliburton’s Q2 revenue rises by 0.6% YoY, held back by an 8% YoY decline in revenue from North America. It missed its revenue estimates by 1.9%.</li>
<li>Strong performance from the international operations more than offset the slowdown in North America. Revenue from international markets rose 8% YoY.</li>
<li>For 2024, Halliburton forecasts a 10% YoY increase in international revenue, while North American revenue is expected to decline by 6-8% YoY.</li>
</ul>


Halliburton’s Q2 revenue rises by 0.6% YoY, held back by an 8% YoY decline in revenue from North America. It missed its revenue estimates by 1.9%.
Strong performance from the international operations more than offset the slowdown in North America. Revenue from international markets rose 8% YoY.
For 2024, Halliburton forecasts a 10% YoY increase in international revenue, while North American revenue is expected to decline by 6-8% YoY.


[Earnings Review] Halliburton Dips as North America Slowdown Hits Q2 Revenue

<ul>
<li>Schlumberger’s revenue grew 12.9% YoY and beat estimates by 0.7%, while its net profit rose by 7.65% YoY and beat estimates by 2.9%.</li>
<li>Revenue from North America grew 3% sequentially but fell 6% YoY due to lower drilling activity in the US.</li>
<li>Management expects low single-digit sequential revenue growth in Q3 2024 and free cash flow in H2 2024 to be higher than in H1 2024.</li>
</ul>


Schlumberger’s revenue grew 12.9% YoY and beat estimates by 0.7%, while its net profit rose by 7.65% YoY and beat estimates by 2.9%.
Revenue from North America grew 3% sequentially but fell 6% YoY due to lower drilling activity in the US.
Management expects low single-digit sequential revenue growth in Q3 2024 and free cash flow in H2 2024 to be higher than in H1 2024.


[Earnings Review] Schlumberger Beats Estimates as International Operations Shine

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Are the Lows "In" For This Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish; Key Supports Holding

Are the Lows "In" for this Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish (RS for defensives $XLP, $XLU, $XLV below October 2023 lows among many other...

Vermilion Research

EQD | S&P500 Futures (ES) Deeply Oversold WEEKLY, Reversal (Probably) Imminent

Our models say that after a 3-week decline, S&P500 Futures are very oversold. Potential LONG trade opportunity in the 4950-4900 area. Caution...

Nico Rosti

The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

The Pullback Finally Begins; $SPX and $NDX $QQQ Testing 2-Month Supports at 4983-5050 and $425-$433 (2/22/24 gap supports); Market Dynamics...

Vermilion Research

[Earnings Review] Halliburton Dips as North America Slowdown Hits Q2 Revenue

Halliburton met Q2 EPS estimates but missed revenue targets. International revenue grew 8% YoY, led by Latin America. Management anticipates the...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] Schlumberger Beats Estimates as International Operations Shine

Schlumberger beat Q2 estimates due to strong international growth, with significant contributions from the Middle East and Asia. Management...

Mint Finance