Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p>Buy levels for US equities remains just above pivotal breakout levels that represent fresh inflection support in the SPX, NDX and DJI.</p><p>SPX 3,410 and NDX 11,600 remain the key inflection levels and supports to initiate buy levels above this support threshold. Below supports would be a negative.</p><p>Delayed stimulus measures are the key risk factor in coming weeks that will provide buying opportunities for new highs in the US and outperforming Europe and Asia.</p>

Buy levels for US equities remains just above pivotal breakout levels that represent fresh inflection support in the SPX, NDX and DJI.SPX 3,410 and NDX 11,600 remain the key inflection levels and supports to initiate buy levels above this support threshold. Below supports would be a negative.Delayed stimulus measures are the key risk factor in coming weeks that will provide buying opportunities for new highs in the US and outperforming Europe and Asia.

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Macroeconomics

<p>US economic growth since Q2 has been heavily driven by strength in big-ticket items, such as housing and light truck sales in stark contrast to the last recovery. Converse to the view of pessimists, the sharp rise in household thrift in Q2 has not presaged a subsequent collapse in consumer spending.</p>
<div>Pessimists are currently focused on elevated levels of initial unemployment claims as being a harbinger that the economy is about to sink into the abyss, but this metric has been heavily influenced by the sheer volume of new claimants during the lockdown and a lack of capacity at the state level to process applications. Meanwhile, the incidence of layoffs in the economy according to the monthly JOLTS (Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey) report has returned to pre-pandemic levels.</div>
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<div>Chair Powell has repeated his call for fiscal stimulus, but some critics claim the Trump Administration has little to gain politically from this initiative due to the proximity of the Presidential Election. Meanwhile, House Speaker Pelosi recently rejected a proposed Administration stimulus allegedly due to its insufficient magnitude. </div>
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<div>The US Treasury is sitting on an unprecedented pile of cash at the Fed in the aftermath of very high borrowing during Q2 and Q3 that can readily be deployed, pending Congressional approval, under the auspices of fiscal stimulus. Lower future borrowing by the Treasury will ease pressure on banks' reserves, thereby raising their capacity to boost outstanding bank credit.</div>
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<div>Investors believe further fiscal stimulus will eventually be forthcoming, thereby implying some impending changes to the slope of the US Treasury yield curve. Inflationary expectations embedded in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) have recovered since their plunge during the early stages of the pandemic, while real yields have been stuck in negative territory since Q1, thereby implying that investors believe policy measures will eventually boost inflation while economic growth will remain very weak.</div>
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US economic growth since Q2 has been heavily driven by strength in big-ticket items, such as housing and light truck sales in stark contrast to the last recovery. Converse to the view of pessimists, the sharp rise in household thrift in Q2 has not presaged a subsequent collapse in consumer spending.
Pessimists are currently focused on elevated levels of initial unemployment claims as being a harbinger that the economy is about to sink into the abyss, but this metric has been heavily influenced by the sheer volume of new claimants during the lockdown and a lack of capacity at the state level to process applications. Meanwhile, the incidence of layoffs in the economy according to the monthly JOLTS (Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey) report has returned to pre-pandemic levels.


Chair Powell has repeated his call for fiscal stimulus, but some critics claim the Trump Administration has little to gain politically from this initiative due to the proximity of the Presidential Election. Meanwhile, House Speaker Pelosi recently rejected a proposed Administration stimulus allegedly due to its insufficient magnitude. 



The US Treasury is sitting on an unprecedented pile of cash at the Fed in the aftermath of very high borrowing during Q2 and Q3 that can readily be deployed, pending Congressional approval, under the auspices of fiscal stimulus. Lower future borrowing by the Treasury will ease pressure on banks' reserves, thereby raising their capacity to boost outstanding bank credit.



Investors believe further fiscal stimulus will eventually be forthcoming, thereby implying some impending changes to the slope of the US Treasury yield curve. Inflationary expectations embedded in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) have recovered since their plunge during the early stages of the pandemic, while real yields have been stuck in negative territory since Q1, thereby implying that investors believe policy measures will eventually boost inflation while economic growth will remain very weak.















US Economy Defies Doomsayers as Treasury's Record Cash Balance Prepares Ground for Further Stimulus

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<p>In last week’s <em>Compass</em> we posited that the bulls were back in control as the bullish gap from Sept. 28 was left unfilled despite the president and first lady getting COVID-19. With breadth continuing to improve and several cyclical areas of the market breaking out to new highs, our outlook remains bullish and we believe a “buy the dip” mentality is warranted.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials &amp; Manufacturing: Metals, Steel Integrated, U.S., Specialty Chemicals, Petro/Basic/Commodity, Cement/Aggregates, and Agricultural Equipment.</p>

In last week’s Compass we posited that the bulls were back in control as the bullish gap from Sept. 28 was left unfilled despite the president and first lady getting COVID-19. With breadth continuing to improve and several cyclical areas of the market breaking out to new highs, our outlook remains bullish and we believe a “buy the dip” mentality is warranted.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials &amp; Manufacturing: Metals, Steel Integrated, U.S., Specialty Chemicals, Petro/Basic/Commodity, Cement/Aggregates, and Agricultural Equipment.

U. S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact; Buy Dips

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Our base case called for tactical short attempt at SPX 3,400 for a fade to buy October weakness. The break above SPX 3,420 hit our stop and reverse trigger to turn long with a focus on buying the DJI and NDX as the trailing long  plays.</p><p>Global risk is tied to SPX 3,420 holding a downside pressure test this week with fade resistance at 3,500 and must hold support at 3,420. Below 3,420 would reinstate a hedge. </p><p>We do see tough resistance levels in Europe and Asia and the reluctance to rally in tandem with the US. This questions how long the SPX can stay above 3,420 and makes this level all the more important. Near term we see a short trade in Asia and Europe on the fade from SPX 3,500 but if 3,420 holds a pressure test we need to build long exposure in Asia (Europe we are more bearish outside of the DAX long zone near 12,500).</p><p>SPX 3,240 and NDX 11,600 key risk pivots and bull/bear lines.</p>

Our base case called for tactical short attempt at SPX 3,400 for a fade to buy October weakness. The break above SPX 3,420 hit our stop and reverse trigger to turn long with a focus on buying the DJI and NDX as the trailing long  plays.Global risk is tied to SPX 3,420 holding a downside pressure test this week with fade resistance at 3,500 and must hold support at 3,420. Below 3,420 would reinstate a hedge. We do see tough resistance levels in Europe and Asia and the reluctance to rally in tandem with the US. This questions how long the SPX can stay above 3,420 and makes this level all the more important. Near term we see a short trade in Asia and Europe on the fade from SPX 3,500 but if 3,420 holds a pressure test we need to build long exposure in Asia (Europe we are more bearish outside of the DAX long zone near 12,500).SPX 3,240 and NDX 11,600 key risk pivots and bull/bear lines.

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong><em>*A Market With Little Discipline: </em></strong>Too many market participants have very little discipline, and to make matters worse, central banks have been all too happy to remove the moral hazard involved with excessive risk taking. This has resulted in the creation of a giant vortex of liquidity which could be as large as USD 1 quadrillion;</p><p><strong><em>*Broken Credit Ratings Agency Model:</em></strong> In our view, the credit ratings agency model is permanently broken as waterfall risks in various rated pools and tranches have become increasingly significant with the markets unable to self-regulate and regulators either unable to regulate (or told not to regulate);  and</p><p><strong><em>*SEC Far From Being Aggressive With Enforcement: </em></strong>In reality, the fines paid by Kroll/DBRS are not even a drop in the bucket compared with the USD 1.5 bn and USD 864 mn fines paid by S&amp;P (MH) and Moody's (MCO.US), respectively, to settle similar charges associated with the GFC. Whether this reflects more of a lower level of violations or a much less aggressive SEC regulator can be debated. It will be interesting to see is whether these investigations are expanded to include 2018-19 deals which appear to have even greater conflicts - particularly under Biden administration. </p>

*A Market With Little Discipline: Too many market participants have very little discipline, and to make matters worse, central banks have been all too happy to remove the moral hazard involved with excessive risk taking. This has resulted in the creation of a giant vortex of liquidity which could be as large as USD 1 quadrillion;*Broken Credit Ratings Agency Model: In our view, the credit ratings agency model is permanently broken as waterfall risks in various rated pools and tranches have become increasingly significant with the markets unable to self-regulate and regulators either unable to regulate (or told not to regulate);  and*SEC Far From Being Aggressive With Enforcement: In reality, the fines paid by Kroll/DBRS are not even a drop in the bucket compared with the USD 1.5 bn and USD 864 mn fines paid by S&amp;P (MH) and Moody's (MCO.US), respectively, to settle similar charges associated with the GFC. Whether this reflects more of a lower level of violations or a much less aggressive SEC regulator can be debated. It will be interesting to see is whether these investigations are expanded to include 2018-19 deals which appear to have even greater conflicts - particularly under Biden administration. 

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

US Equity Buy Levels

Buy levels for US equities remains just above pivotal breakout levels that represent fresh inflection support in the SPX, NDX and DJI and will...

Thomas Schroeder

US Economy Defies Doomsayers as Treasury's Record Cash Balance Prepares Ground for Further Stimulus

As the economy recovers, US equity and bond investors hold very divergent views about the economic outlook and consequently the implications for...

DeSaque Macro Research

U. S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact; Buy Dips

With breadth continuing to improve and several cyclicals breaking out to new highs, our outlook remains bullish and we believe a “buy the dip”...

Vermilion Research

Risk on Above SPX 3,420/NDX 11,600

Our base case called for tactical short attempt at SPX 3,400 for a fade to buy October weakness. The break above SPX 3,420 hit our stop and reverse...

Thomas Schroeder

Ratings Agencies – Beyond Repair

*A Market With Little Discipline: Too many market participants have very little discipline, and to make matters worse, central banks have been all...

Thomas J. Monaco